Opinion Poll by OGM, 31 March–2 April 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 45.0% 42.8–47.3% 42.1–47.9% 41.6–48.5% 40.5–49.6%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 18.0% 16.4–19.8% 15.9–20.4% 15.5–20.8% 14.7–21.7%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 16.0% 14.4–17.8% 14.0–18.3% 13.6–18.7% 12.9–19.6%
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 12.0% 10.6–13.6% 10.2–14.1% 9.9–14.4% 9.3–15.2%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 7.0% 6.0–8.3% 5.7–8.7% 5.4–9.0% 5.0–9.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 84 80–89 79–90 78–91 76–93
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 34 30–37 29–38 29–39 27–40
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 30 27–33 26–34 25–35 24–36
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 22 20–25 19–26 18–27 17–28
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 13 11–15 10–16 10–16 9–18

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.2% 99.9%  
76 0.5% 99.7%  
77 1.0% 99.2%  
78 2% 98%  
79 3% 96%  
80 5% 93%  
81 7% 88%  
82 9% 81%  
83 11% 71%  
84 12% 60% Median
85 12% 48%  
86 11% 37%  
87 9% 26%  
88 6% 17%  
89 4% 10%  
90 3% 6%  
91 2% 3%  
92 0.8% 2% Majority
93 0.4% 0.7%  
94 0.2% 0.3%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100% Last Result
27 0.5% 99.8%  
28 1.3% 99.3%  
29 3% 98%  
30 6% 95%  
31 10% 89%  
32 13% 79%  
33 15% 66%  
34 15% 51% Median
35 13% 36%  
36 10% 23%  
37 6% 13%  
38 4% 7%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.8% 1.3%  
41 0.3% 0.5%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.2% 99.9%  
24 0.8% 99.7%  
25 2% 98.8%  
26 5% 97%  
27 9% 92%  
28 13% 83%  
29 16% 70%  
30 16% 54% Median
31 14% 38%  
32 11% 24%  
33 7% 14%  
34 4% 7%  
35 2% 3%  
36 0.8% 1.3%  
37 0.3% 0.5%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0% Last Result

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 0.8% 99.8%  
18 2% 99.0%  
19 6% 97%  
20 11% 91%  
21 16% 80%  
22 18% 64% Median
23 17% 45%  
24 13% 29%  
25 8% 16%  
26 4% 7%  
27 2% 3%  
28 0.8% 1.1%  
29 0.3% 0.4%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 1.4% 99.8%  
10 6% 98%  
11 13% 92%  
12 22% 79%  
13 23% 58% Median
14 17% 35%  
15 11% 18% Last Result
16 5% 7%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0.5% 0.7%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 112 131 100% 127–135 126–136 125–137 123–138
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 118 100% 114–122 113–123 112–124 110–126
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 111 114 100% 110–118 109–119 108–120 106–122
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 102 107 100% 103–111 101–112 100–113 98–115
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 97 96% 93–102 92–103 91–104 89–106
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 84 2% 80–89 79–90 78–91 76–93
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 81 76 0% 72–80 71–82 70–83 68–85
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 66 63 0% 59–67 58–69 57–70 55–72
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 71 52 0% 48–56 47–57 46–58 45–60
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 30 0% 27–33 26–34 25–35 24–36

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100% Last Result
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0.1% 100%  
122 0.2% 99.9%  
123 0.4% 99.7%  
124 1.1% 99.2%  
125 2% 98%  
126 4% 96%  
127 5% 92%  
128 8% 87%  
129 11% 79%  
130 13% 67%  
131 12% 54% Median
132 13% 43%  
133 11% 30%  
134 8% 19%  
135 5% 11%  
136 3% 6%  
137 2% 3%  
138 0.6% 1.1%  
139 0.3% 0.5%  
140 0.1% 0.2%  
141 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0% 100% Last Result
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0.1% 99.9%  
109 0.3% 99.8%  
110 0.6% 99.6%  
111 1.1% 99.0%  
112 2% 98%  
113 4% 95%  
114 5% 92%  
115 8% 86%  
116 10% 78%  
117 13% 68%  
118 11% 55% Median
119 12% 44%  
120 11% 32%  
121 8% 22%  
122 6% 13%  
123 3% 7%  
124 2% 4%  
125 1.1% 2%  
126 0.5% 0.8%  
127 0.2% 0.3%  
128 0.1% 0.1%  
129 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.2% 99.9%  
106 0.5% 99.6%  
107 1.1% 99.1%  
108 2% 98%  
109 3% 96%  
110 5% 93%  
111 8% 88% Last Result
112 10% 80%  
113 12% 70%  
114 13% 59% Median
115 11% 46%  
116 11% 35%  
117 9% 24%  
118 6% 15%  
119 4% 9%  
120 3% 5%  
121 1.3% 2%  
122 0.6% 1.1%  
123 0.3% 0.5%  
124 0.1% 0.2%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0.1% 100%  
97 0.2% 99.9%  
98 0.4% 99.7%  
99 0.9% 99.4%  
100 2% 98%  
101 3% 97%  
102 4% 94% Last Result
103 7% 90%  
104 9% 84%  
105 11% 74%  
106 11% 63% Median
107 12% 52%  
108 10% 41%  
109 11% 30%  
110 8% 19%  
111 5% 12%  
112 3% 7%  
113 2% 4%  
114 1.1% 2%  
115 0.5% 0.8%  
116 0.2% 0.3%  
117 0.1% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.2% 99.8%  
89 0.6% 99.6%  
90 1.1% 99.0%  
91 2% 98%  
92 3% 96% Majority
93 5% 93%  
94 7% 87%  
95 9% 80%  
96 11% 70%  
97 12% 59% Median
98 12% 47%  
99 10% 35%  
100 9% 25%  
101 6% 17%  
102 4% 10%  
103 3% 6%  
104 1.5% 3%  
105 0.8% 1.4%  
106 0.4% 0.6%  
107 0.2% 0.3%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.2% 99.9%  
76 0.5% 99.7%  
77 1.0% 99.2%  
78 2% 98%  
79 3% 96%  
80 5% 93%  
81 7% 88%  
82 9% 81%  
83 11% 71%  
84 12% 60% Median
85 12% 48%  
86 11% 37%  
87 9% 26%  
88 6% 17%  
89 4% 10%  
90 3% 6%  
91 2% 3%  
92 0.8% 2% Majority
93 0.4% 0.7%  
94 0.2% 0.3%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.5% 99.7%  
69 1.1% 99.2%  
70 2% 98%  
71 3% 96%  
72 5% 93%  
73 8% 88%  
74 11% 81%  
75 10% 70%  
76 12% 59%  
77 11% 48% Median
78 11% 37%  
79 9% 25%  
80 7% 16%  
81 4% 10% Last Result
82 3% 6%  
83 1.5% 3%  
84 0.9% 2%  
85 0.4% 0.6%  
86 0.2% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.3% 99.8%  
56 0.8% 99.5%  
57 2% 98.7%  
58 3% 97%  
59 5% 94%  
60 7% 89%  
61 10% 82%  
62 12% 72%  
63 12% 61%  
64 13% 49% Median
65 11% 36%  
66 9% 25% Last Result
67 7% 16%  
68 4% 10%  
69 3% 6%  
70 1.5% 3%  
71 0.7% 1.3%  
72 0.3% 0.6%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.3% 99.8%  
45 0.6% 99.5%  
46 2% 98.9%  
47 3% 97%  
48 5% 94%  
49 8% 89%  
50 11% 81%  
51 13% 70%  
52 12% 57% Median
53 13% 45%  
54 11% 32%  
55 8% 21%  
56 5% 13%  
57 4% 8%  
58 2% 4%  
59 1.1% 2%  
60 0.4% 0.8%  
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.2% 99.9%  
24 0.8% 99.7%  
25 2% 98.8%  
26 5% 97%  
27 9% 92%  
28 13% 83%  
29 16% 70%  
30 16% 54% Median
31 14% 38%  
32 11% 24%  
33 7% 14%  
34 4% 7%  
35 2% 3%  
36 0.8% 1.3%  
37 0.3% 0.5%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations