Opinion Poll by Market for Der Standard, 3–7 April 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 37.5% | 44.0% | 42.5–45.5% | 42.1–45.9% | 41.7–46.3% | 41.0–47.0% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 21.2% | 19.0% | 17.8–20.2% | 17.5–20.6% | 17.3–20.9% | 16.7–21.5% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 13.9% | 19.0% | 17.8–20.2% | 17.5–20.6% | 17.3–20.9% | 16.7–21.5% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 16.2% | 11.0% | 10.1–12.0% | 9.8–12.3% | 9.6–12.5% | 9.2–13.0% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 8.1% | 6.0% | 5.3–6.8% | 5.2–7.0% | 5.0–7.2% | 4.7–7.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 82 | 79–85 | 78–85 | 78–86 | 76–87 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 35 | 33–37 | 32–38 | 32–39 | 31–40 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 26 | 35 | 33–37 | 32–38 | 32–39 | 31–40 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 31 | 20 | 18–22 | 18–22 | 18–23 | 17–24 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 15 | 11 | 9–12 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 8–14 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 77 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 78 | 4% | 98% | |
| 79 | 8% | 94% | |
| 80 | 13% | 85% | |
| 81 | 16% | 72% | |
| 82 | 18% | 56% | Median |
| 83 | 16% | 38% | |
| 84 | 11% | 22% | |
| 85 | 7% | 11% | |
| 86 | 3% | 5% | |
| 87 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 88 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 31 | 1.3% | 99.7% | |
| 32 | 5% | 98% | |
| 33 | 11% | 94% | |
| 34 | 19% | 82% | |
| 35 | 22% | 63% | Median |
| 36 | 21% | 41% | |
| 37 | 12% | 20% | |
| 38 | 6% | 8% | |
| 39 | 2% | 3% | |
| 40 | 0.5% | 0.6% | Last Result |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 31 | 1.3% | 99.7% | |
| 32 | 5% | 98% | |
| 33 | 11% | 93% | |
| 34 | 19% | 83% | |
| 35 | 23% | 63% | Median |
| 36 | 19% | 40% | |
| 37 | 13% | 21% | |
| 38 | 6% | 8% | |
| 39 | 2% | 3% | |
| 40 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 17 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 18 | 9% | 98% | |
| 19 | 21% | 89% | |
| 20 | 29% | 68% | Median |
| 21 | 22% | 39% | |
| 22 | 12% | 17% | |
| 23 | 4% | 5% | |
| 24 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 9% | 99.0% | |
| 10 | 29% | 90% | |
| 11 | 35% | 61% | Median |
| 12 | 20% | 25% | |
| 13 | 5% | 6% | |
| 14 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 112 | 128 | 100% | 125–130 | 124–131 | 124–132 | 122–133 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 97 | 117 | 100% | 114–120 | 113–120 | 113–121 | 111–122 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 111 | 117 | 100% | 114–120 | 113–120 | 113–121 | 111–122 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 102 | 102 | 100% | 99–105 | 98–106 | 98–106 | 96–108 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 86 | 93 | 69% | 90–96 | 89–96 | 88–97 | 87–98 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 82 | 0% | 79–85 | 78–85 | 78–86 | 76–87 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 81 | 81 | 0% | 78–84 | 77–85 | 77–85 | 75–87 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 66 | 70 | 0% | 67–73 | 67–74 | 66–74 | 65–76 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 71 | 55 | 0% | 53–58 | 52–59 | 51–59 | 50–61 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 35 | 0% | 33–37 | 32–38 | 32–39 | 31–40 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 112 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 113 | 0% | 100% | |
| 114 | 0% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0% | 100% | |
| 116 | 0% | 100% | |
| 117 | 0% | 100% | |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 123 | 1.4% | 99.5% | |
| 124 | 4% | 98% | |
| 125 | 8% | 94% | |
| 126 | 13% | 86% | |
| 127 | 18% | 73% | |
| 128 | 19% | 55% | Median |
| 129 | 16% | 35% | |
| 130 | 11% | 19% | |
| 131 | 5% | 8% | |
| 132 | 2% | 3% | |
| 133 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 134 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 97 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 98 | 0% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 112 | 1.4% | 99.4% | |
| 113 | 3% | 98% | |
| 114 | 7% | 95% | |
| 115 | 13% | 87% | |
| 116 | 17% | 75% | |
| 117 | 19% | 58% | Median |
| 118 | 16% | 39% | |
| 119 | 12% | 23% | |
| 120 | 7% | 11% | |
| 121 | 3% | 5% | |
| 122 | 1.1% | 1.5% | |
| 123 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 110 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0.4% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 112 | 1.4% | 99.4% | |
| 113 | 3% | 98% | |
| 114 | 7% | 95% | |
| 115 | 13% | 87% | |
| 116 | 18% | 75% | |
| 117 | 18% | 57% | Median |
| 118 | 16% | 39% | |
| 119 | 12% | 24% | |
| 120 | 7% | 12% | |
| 121 | 3% | 5% | |
| 122 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 123 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 95 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 97 | 1.5% | 99.4% | |
| 98 | 4% | 98% | |
| 99 | 7% | 94% | |
| 100 | 13% | 87% | |
| 101 | 16% | 75% | |
| 102 | 18% | 59% | Last Result, Median |
| 103 | 16% | 41% | |
| 104 | 12% | 25% | |
| 105 | 7% | 13% | |
| 106 | 3% | 5% | |
| 107 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 108 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0.2% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 87 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 88 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 89 | 5% | 97% | |
| 90 | 9% | 92% | |
| 91 | 14% | 83% | |
| 92 | 17% | 69% | Majority |
| 93 | 18% | 53% | Median |
| 94 | 15% | 34% | |
| 95 | 10% | 20% | |
| 96 | 6% | 10% | |
| 97 | 3% | 4% | |
| 98 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 99 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 77 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 78 | 4% | 98% | |
| 79 | 8% | 94% | |
| 80 | 13% | 85% | |
| 81 | 16% | 72% | |
| 82 | 18% | 56% | Median |
| 83 | 16% | 38% | |
| 84 | 11% | 22% | |
| 85 | 7% | 11% | |
| 86 | 3% | 5% | |
| 87 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 88 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 74 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 76 | 1.4% | 99.4% | |
| 77 | 3% | 98% | |
| 78 | 7% | 95% | |
| 79 | 12% | 87% | |
| 80 | 16% | 75% | |
| 81 | 18% | 59% | Last Result, Median |
| 82 | 16% | 41% | |
| 83 | 13% | 25% | |
| 84 | 7% | 13% | |
| 85 | 4% | 6% | |
| 86 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 87 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 66 | 3% | 98.6% | Last Result |
| 67 | 6% | 96% | |
| 68 | 11% | 90% | |
| 69 | 16% | 79% | |
| 70 | 18% | 63% | Median |
| 71 | 16% | 44% | |
| 72 | 14% | 28% | |
| 73 | 8% | 14% | |
| 74 | 4% | 6% | |
| 75 | 2% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 51 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 52 | 5% | 97% | |
| 53 | 11% | 92% | |
| 54 | 16% | 81% | |
| 55 | 19% | 65% | Median |
| 56 | 18% | 45% | |
| 57 | 13% | 27% | |
| 58 | 8% | 14% | |
| 59 | 4% | 6% | |
| 60 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 61 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 31 | 1.3% | 99.7% | |
| 32 | 5% | 98% | |
| 33 | 11% | 94% | |
| 34 | 19% | 82% | |
| 35 | 22% | 63% | Median |
| 36 | 21% | 41% | |
| 37 | 12% | 20% | |
| 38 | 6% | 8% | |
| 39 | 2% | 3% | |
| 40 | 0.5% | 0.6% | Last Result |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Market
- Commissioner(s): Der Standard
- Fieldwork period: 3–7 April 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1800
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.41%