Opinion Poll by Market for Der Standard, 11–13 May 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 44.0% 42.0–46.0% 41.4–46.6% 40.9–47.1% 40.0–48.1%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 21.0% 19.4–22.7% 19.0–23.2% 18.6–23.6% 17.8–24.5%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 17.0% 15.5–18.6% 15.1–19.1% 14.8–19.5% 14.1–20.3%
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 11.0% 9.8–12.4% 9.5–12.8% 9.2–13.1% 8.7–13.8%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 82 78–85 77–87 76–87 74–89
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 39 36–42 35–43 34–44 33–45
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 31 29–34 28–35 27–36 26–37
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 20 18–23 17–23 17–24 16–25
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 11 9–13 9–13 8–14 8–15

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 0.4% 99.8%  
75 1.0% 99.3%  
76 2% 98%  
77 4% 96%  
78 6% 93%  
79 9% 86%  
80 11% 78%  
81 14% 67%  
82 13% 53% Median
83 12% 39%  
84 10% 27%  
85 7% 17%  
86 4% 10%  
87 3% 5%  
88 1.4% 2%  
89 0.6% 1.1%  
90 0.3% 0.4%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1% Majority
93 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.9%  
33 0.8% 99.7%  
34 2% 98.9%  
35 5% 97%  
36 8% 92%  
37 13% 84%  
38 16% 71%  
39 16% 55% Median
40 14% 38% Last Result
41 11% 24%  
42 7% 13%  
43 4% 7%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.7% 1.1%  
46 0.3% 0.4%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100%  
25 0.2% 99.9%  
26 0.9% 99.7% Last Result
27 3% 98.9%  
28 6% 96%  
29 10% 91%  
30 15% 80%  
31 18% 65% Median
32 17% 47%  
33 13% 30%  
34 9% 17%  
35 5% 8%  
36 2% 4%  
37 0.8% 1.3%  
38 0.3% 0.4%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.3% 100%  
16 2% 99.7%  
17 5% 98%  
18 11% 93%  
19 18% 82%  
20 21% 64% Median
21 19% 43%  
22 13% 23%  
23 7% 11%  
24 3% 4%  
25 1.0% 1.3%  
26 0.3% 0.3%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0.3% 99.9%  
8 3% 99.6%  
9 13% 96%  
10 24% 83%  
11 27% 59% Median
12 19% 32%  
13 9% 13%  
14 3% 4%  
15 0.7% 0.8% Last Result
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 112 124 100% 120–127 119–128 118–129 117–131
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 111 121 100% 117–124 116–125 115–126 113–128
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 113 100% 109–117 108–118 107–119 106–121
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 102 102 100% 98–106 97–107 96–108 94–110
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 93 64% 89–96 88–97 87–98 85–100
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 82 0.1% 78–85 77–87 76–87 74–89
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 81 81 0% 77–85 76–86 75–87 73–89
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 70 0% 67–74 66–75 65–76 63–78
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 71 59 0% 56–63 55–64 54–65 52–66
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 39 0% 36–42 35–43 34–44 33–45

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100% Last Result
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0.1% 100%  
116 0.3% 99.9%  
117 0.7% 99.6%  
118 1.5% 98.9%  
119 3% 97%  
120 5% 95%  
121 8% 89%  
122 11% 81%  
123 14% 71%  
124 15% 57% Median
125 14% 43%  
126 11% 29%  
127 8% 18%  
128 5% 10%  
129 3% 5%  
130 1.3% 2%  
131 0.5% 0.8%  
132 0.2% 0.3%  
133 0.1% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
111 0.1% 100% Last Result
112 0.2% 99.9%  
113 0.4% 99.8%  
114 1.0% 99.3%  
115 2% 98%  
116 4% 96%  
117 6% 92%  
118 10% 86%  
119 11% 77%  
120 14% 65%  
121 14% 51% Median
122 13% 37%  
123 9% 24%  
124 7% 15%  
125 4% 8%  
126 2% 4%  
127 1.0% 2%  
128 0.4% 0.6%  
129 0.1% 0.2%  
130 0.1% 0.1%  
131 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0% 100% Last Result
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0.1% 100%  
105 0.3% 99.8%  
106 0.7% 99.5%  
107 1.5% 98.9%  
108 3% 97%  
109 5% 94%  
110 7% 89%  
111 11% 82%  
112 13% 72%  
113 14% 59% Median
114 14% 45%  
115 11% 31%  
116 8% 20%  
117 5% 12%  
118 3% 6%  
119 2% 3%  
120 0.8% 1.3%  
121 0.3% 0.5%  
122 0.1% 0.2%  
123 0% 0.1%  
124 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0% 100% Majority
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.4% 99.8%  
95 0.9% 99.4%  
96 2% 98.5%  
97 3% 97%  
98 5% 93%  
99 8% 88%  
100 11% 80%  
101 13% 69%  
102 14% 56% Last Result, Median
103 13% 42%  
104 11% 29%  
105 8% 19%  
106 5% 11%  
107 3% 6%  
108 2% 3%  
109 0.7% 1.2%  
110 0.3% 0.5%  
111 0.1% 0.2%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0.1% 100%  
84 0.2% 99.9%  
85 0.5% 99.7%  
86 1.1% 99.1% Last Result
87 2% 98%  
88 4% 96%  
89 7% 92%  
90 9% 85%  
91 12% 76%  
92 13% 64% Majority
93 14% 51% Median
94 12% 37%  
95 10% 26%  
96 7% 16%  
97 4% 9%  
98 2% 5%  
99 1.4% 2%  
100 0.6% 0.9%  
101 0.2% 0.4%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 0.4% 99.8%  
75 1.0% 99.3%  
76 2% 98%  
77 4% 96%  
78 6% 93%  
79 9% 86%  
80 11% 78%  
81 14% 67%  
82 13% 53% Median
83 12% 39%  
84 10% 27%  
85 7% 17%  
86 4% 10%  
87 3% 5%  
88 1.4% 2%  
89 0.6% 1.1%  
90 0.3% 0.4%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1% Majority
93 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.3% 99.8%  
74 0.7% 99.5%  
75 2% 98.8%  
76 3% 97%  
77 5% 94%  
78 8% 89%  
79 11% 81%  
80 13% 71%  
81 14% 58% Last Result, Median
82 13% 44%  
83 11% 31%  
84 8% 20%  
85 5% 12%  
86 3% 7%  
87 2% 3%  
88 0.9% 1.5%  
89 0.4% 0.6%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0% Majority

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.6% 99.7%  
64 1.3% 99.1%  
65 3% 98%  
66 5% 95% Last Result
67 7% 90%  
68 10% 83%  
69 13% 73%  
70 14% 60% Median
71 13% 46%  
72 12% 33%  
73 9% 21%  
74 5% 12%  
75 4% 7%  
76 2% 3%  
77 0.9% 2%  
78 0.4% 0.6%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.9%  
52 0.5% 99.7%  
53 1.3% 99.2%  
54 3% 98%  
55 5% 95%  
56 8% 90%  
57 11% 82%  
58 14% 71%  
59 15% 57% Median
60 14% 43%  
61 11% 29%  
62 8% 19%  
63 5% 11%  
64 3% 5%  
65 1.5% 3%  
66 0.7% 1.1%  
67 0.3% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.9%  
33 0.8% 99.7%  
34 2% 98.9%  
35 5% 97%  
36 8% 92%  
37 13% 84%  
38 16% 71%  
39 16% 55% Median
40 14% 38% Last Result
41 11% 24%  
42 7% 13%  
43 4% 7%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.7% 1.1%  
46 0.3% 0.4%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations