Opinion Poll by Unique Research for profil, 11–14 May 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 46.0% 43.8–48.3% 43.1–48.9% 42.6–49.5% 41.5–50.6%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 17.0% 15.3–18.8% 14.9–19.3% 14.5–19.7% 13.8–20.6%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 15.0% 13.4–16.7% 13.0–17.2% 12.7–17.6% 12.0–18.5%
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 14.0% 12.5–15.7% 12.1–16.1% 11.7–16.6% 11.1–17.4%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 6.0% 5.0–7.2% 4.8–7.5% 4.5–7.8% 4.1–8.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 86 82–91 81–92 80–93 78–95
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 32 29–35 28–36 27–37 26–38
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 28 25–31 24–32 23–33 22–34
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 26 23–29 22–30 22–31 20–32
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 11 9–13 8–14 8–14 7–15

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.2% 99.9%  
78 0.5% 99.7%  
79 1.0% 99.2%  
80 2% 98%  
81 3% 96%  
82 5% 93%  
83 7% 88%  
84 10% 81%  
85 11% 71%  
86 12% 60% Median
87 12% 49%  
88 11% 37%  
89 9% 26%  
90 7% 17%  
91 5% 11%  
92 3% 6% Majority
93 2% 3%  
94 0.9% 2%  
95 0.5% 0.8%  
96 0.2% 0.3%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.4% 99.9%  
26 1.1% 99.5%  
27 3% 98%  
28 6% 96%  
29 9% 90%  
30 13% 81%  
31 15% 67%  
32 16% 52% Median
33 14% 36%  
34 10% 23%  
35 7% 13%  
36 4% 7%  
37 2% 3%  
38 0.8% 1.3%  
39 0.3% 0.4%  
40 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
41 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 0.6% 99.8%  
23 2% 99.1%  
24 5% 97%  
25 8% 93%  
26 13% 84% Last Result
27 16% 72%  
28 17% 56% Median
29 14% 39%  
30 11% 25%  
31 7% 14%  
32 4% 7%  
33 2% 3%  
34 0.8% 1.2%  
35 0.3% 0.4%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.5% 99.9%  
21 1.5% 99.4%  
22 4% 98%  
23 8% 94%  
24 12% 86%  
25 16% 74%  
26 17% 58% Median
27 15% 41%  
28 12% 26%  
29 7% 14%  
30 4% 7%  
31 2% 3% Last Result
32 0.8% 1.2%  
33 0.3% 0.4%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 0% 99.7%  
2 0% 99.7%  
3 0% 99.7%  
4 0% 99.7%  
5 0% 99.7%  
6 0% 99.7%  
7 0.5% 99.7%  
8 4% 99.2%  
9 12% 95%  
10 22% 82%  
11 24% 61% Median
12 19% 37%  
13 11% 18%  
14 5% 7%  
15 1.5% 2% Last Result
16 0.4% 0.5%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 112 125 100% 121–129 120–130 119–131 117–133
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 111 118 100% 114–122 113–123 112–124 110–126
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 114 100% 110–118 109–120 108–121 106–123
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 102 112 100% 108–117 107–118 106–119 104–121
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 97 96% 93–102 92–103 91–104 89–106
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 86 6% 82–91 81–92 80–93 78–95
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 81 71 0% 66–75 65–76 64–77 62–79
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 60 0% 56–64 54–65 54–66 52–68
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 71 58 0% 54–62 53–63 52–64 50–66
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 32 0% 29–35 28–36 27–37 26–38

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100% Last Result
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0.1% 100%  
116 0.2% 99.9%  
117 0.4% 99.7%  
118 0.9% 99.3%  
119 2% 98%  
120 3% 97%  
121 5% 94%  
122 7% 89%  
123 9% 82%  
124 12% 72%  
125 13% 60% Median
126 12% 47%  
127 11% 35%  
128 9% 24%  
129 6% 14%  
130 4% 8%  
131 2% 4%  
132 1.2% 2%  
133 0.5% 0.8%  
134 0.2% 0.3%  
135 0.1% 0.1%  
136 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
107 0% 100%  
108 0.1% 99.9%  
109 0.2% 99.8%  
110 0.5% 99.6%  
111 1.1% 99.0% Last Result
112 2% 98%  
113 4% 96%  
114 5% 92%  
115 8% 87%  
116 10% 79%  
117 12% 69%  
118 12% 57% Median
119 12% 45%  
120 11% 33%  
121 8% 22%  
122 6% 14%  
123 4% 8%  
124 2% 4%  
125 1.1% 2%  
126 0.6% 1.0%  
127 0.2% 0.4%  
128 0.1% 0.2%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0% 100% Last Result
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0.1% 100%  
105 0.2% 99.9%  
106 0.5% 99.6%  
107 1.0% 99.1%  
108 2% 98%  
109 3% 96%  
110 5% 93%  
111 7% 88%  
112 10% 81%  
113 11% 71%  
114 12% 60% Median
115 12% 47%  
116 11% 35%  
117 9% 25%  
118 6% 16%  
119 4% 10%  
120 3% 5%  
121 1.4% 3%  
122 0.8% 1.4%  
123 0.3% 0.6%  
124 0.1% 0.3%  
125 0.1% 0.1%  
126 0% 0.1%  
127 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0.1% 100% Last Result
103 0.2% 99.9%  
104 0.5% 99.7%  
105 0.9% 99.2%  
106 2% 98%  
107 3% 97%  
108 5% 94%  
109 7% 89%  
110 9% 82%  
111 11% 72%  
112 12% 62% Median
113 12% 49%  
114 11% 37%  
115 9% 26%  
116 6% 17%  
117 5% 10%  
118 3% 6%  
119 2% 3%  
120 0.8% 1.5%  
121 0.4% 0.7%  
122 0.2% 0.3%  
123 0.1% 0.1%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.2% 99.8%  
89 0.5% 99.6%  
90 1.0% 99.1%  
91 2% 98%  
92 3% 96% Majority
93 5% 93%  
94 7% 88%  
95 9% 81%  
96 11% 72%  
97 12% 60% Median
98 12% 49%  
99 11% 37%  
100 9% 26%  
101 7% 18%  
102 5% 11%  
103 3% 6%  
104 2% 3%  
105 0.9% 2%  
106 0.4% 0.7%  
107 0.2% 0.3%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.2% 99.9%  
78 0.5% 99.7%  
79 1.0% 99.2%  
80 2% 98%  
81 3% 96%  
82 5% 93%  
83 7% 88%  
84 10% 81%  
85 11% 71%  
86 12% 60% Median
87 12% 49%  
88 11% 37%  
89 9% 26%  
90 7% 17%  
91 5% 11%  
92 3% 6% Majority
93 2% 3%  
94 0.9% 2%  
95 0.5% 0.8%  
96 0.2% 0.3%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.4% 99.7%  
63 0.8% 99.3%  
64 2% 98.5%  
65 3% 97%  
66 5% 94%  
67 6% 89%  
68 9% 83%  
69 11% 74%  
70 12% 63%  
71 12% 51% Median
72 11% 38%  
73 9% 28%  
74 7% 18%  
75 5% 11%  
76 3% 6%  
77 2% 3%  
78 0.9% 2%  
79 0.5% 0.8%  
80 0.2% 0.3%  
81 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
82 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.3% 99.9%  
52 0.6% 99.6%  
53 1.3% 99.0%  
54 3% 98%  
55 5% 95%  
56 6% 90%  
57 9% 84%  
58 12% 75%  
59 12% 63%  
60 12% 51% Median
61 12% 38%  
62 10% 26%  
63 6% 17%  
64 5% 11%  
65 3% 6%  
66 1.5% 3% Last Result
67 0.8% 1.5%  
68 0.4% 0.7%  
69 0.2% 0.3%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 0.5% 99.7%  
51 1.2% 99.2%  
52 2% 98%  
53 4% 96%  
54 6% 92%  
55 10% 85%  
56 11% 76%  
57 12% 65%  
58 13% 53% Median
59 12% 40%  
60 9% 27%  
61 7% 18%  
62 5% 11%  
63 3% 6%  
64 2% 3%  
65 0.9% 2%  
66 0.4% 0.7%  
67 0.2% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.4% 99.9%  
26 1.1% 99.5%  
27 3% 98%  
28 6% 96%  
29 9% 90%  
30 13% 81%  
31 15% 67%  
32 16% 52% Median
33 14% 36%  
34 10% 23%  
35 7% 13%  
36 4% 7%  
37 2% 3%  
38 0.8% 1.3%  
39 0.3% 0.4%  
40 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
41 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations