Opinion Poll by Market for Der Standard, 18–19 May 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 37.5% | 43.0% | 41.0–45.0% | 40.4–45.6% | 40.0–46.1% | 39.0–47.1% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 21.2% | 21.0% | 19.4–22.7% | 19.0–23.2% | 18.6–23.6% | 17.8–24.5% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 13.9% | 17.0% | 15.5–18.6% | 15.1–19.1% | 14.8–19.5% | 14.1–20.3% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 16.2% | 12.0% | 10.8–13.4% | 10.4–13.8% | 10.1–14.2% | 9.6–14.9% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 8.1% | 6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 80 | 76–84 | 75–85 | 74–86 | 72–87 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 39 | 36–42 | 35–43 | 34–44 | 33–45 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 26 | 31 | 29–34 | 28–35 | 27–36 | 26–37 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 31 | 22 | 20–25 | 19–25 | 18–26 | 17–27 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 15 | 11 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 8–14 | 8–15 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 72 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 73 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 74 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 75 | 4% | 97% | |
| 76 | 6% | 93% | |
| 77 | 9% | 88% | |
| 78 | 11% | 79% | |
| 79 | 13% | 67% | |
| 80 | 14% | 54% | Median |
| 81 | 12% | 41% | |
| 82 | 10% | 29% | |
| 83 | 8% | 18% | |
| 84 | 5% | 11% | |
| 85 | 3% | 6% | |
| 86 | 2% | 3% | |
| 87 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 88 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 34 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 35 | 5% | 97% | |
| 36 | 8% | 92% | |
| 37 | 13% | 84% | |
| 38 | 16% | 71% | |
| 39 | 16% | 54% | Median |
| 40 | 14% | 38% | Last Result |
| 41 | 11% | 24% | |
| 42 | 7% | 14% | |
| 43 | 4% | 7% | |
| 44 | 2% | 3% | |
| 45 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 46 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.9% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 27 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 28 | 6% | 96% | |
| 29 | 11% | 91% | |
| 30 | 15% | 80% | |
| 31 | 18% | 65% | Median |
| 32 | 17% | 47% | |
| 33 | 13% | 30% | |
| 34 | 9% | 17% | |
| 35 | 5% | 8% | |
| 36 | 2% | 3% | |
| 37 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 19 | 6% | 97% | |
| 20 | 12% | 91% | |
| 21 | 18% | 79% | |
| 22 | 20% | 60% | Median |
| 23 | 17% | 40% | |
| 24 | 12% | 23% | |
| 25 | 6% | 10% | |
| 26 | 3% | 4% | |
| 27 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 9 | 13% | 96% | |
| 10 | 25% | 83% | |
| 11 | 27% | 59% | Median |
| 12 | 19% | 32% | |
| 13 | 9% | 13% | |
| 14 | 3% | 4% | |
| 15 | 0.7% | 0.9% | Last Result |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 112 | 122 | 100% | 119–126 | 117–127 | 117–128 | 115–129 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 111 | 119 | 100% | 115–122 | 114–123 | 113–124 | 111–126 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 97 | 111 | 100% | 108–115 | 106–116 | 106–117 | 104–119 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 102 | 102 | 100% | 98–106 | 97–107 | 96–108 | 94–109 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 86 | 91 | 40% | 87–94 | 86–96 | 85–97 | 83–98 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 81 | 81 | 0% | 77–85 | 76–86 | 75–87 | 74–89 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 80 | 0% | 76–84 | 75–85 | 74–86 | 72–87 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 66 | 70 | 0% | 67–74 | 66–75 | 65–76 | 63–78 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 71 | 61 | 0% | 57–64 | 56–66 | 55–66 | 54–68 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 39 | 0% | 36–42 | 35–43 | 34–44 | 33–45 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 112 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 113 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 114 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 115 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 116 | 1.4% | 99.1% | |
| 117 | 3% | 98% | |
| 118 | 5% | 95% | |
| 119 | 8% | 90% | |
| 120 | 11% | 83% | |
| 121 | 12% | 72% | |
| 122 | 15% | 59% | Median |
| 123 | 14% | 45% | |
| 124 | 11% | 31% | |
| 125 | 9% | 20% | |
| 126 | 5% | 11% | |
| 127 | 3% | 6% | |
| 128 | 2% | 3% | |
| 129 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 130 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 111 | 0.4% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 112 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 113 | 2% | 98% | |
| 114 | 4% | 97% | |
| 115 | 6% | 93% | |
| 116 | 9% | 87% | |
| 117 | 12% | 78% | |
| 118 | 14% | 66% | |
| 119 | 14% | 53% | Median |
| 120 | 12% | 38% | |
| 121 | 10% | 26% | |
| 122 | 7% | 16% | |
| 123 | 5% | 9% | |
| 124 | 2% | 4% | |
| 125 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 126 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 127 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 97 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 98 | 0% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 104 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 105 | 1.4% | 99.0% | |
| 106 | 3% | 98% | |
| 107 | 5% | 95% | |
| 108 | 7% | 90% | |
| 109 | 10% | 83% | |
| 110 | 12% | 73% | |
| 111 | 14% | 60% | Median |
| 112 | 13% | 46% | |
| 113 | 11% | 33% | |
| 114 | 9% | 22% | |
| 115 | 6% | 13% | |
| 116 | 4% | 7% | |
| 117 | 2% | 3% | |
| 118 | 0.9% | 1.5% | |
| 119 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92 | 0.1% | 100% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 94 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 95 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 96 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 97 | 3% | 97% | |
| 98 | 6% | 94% | |
| 99 | 8% | 88% | |
| 100 | 11% | 79% | |
| 101 | 13% | 68% | |
| 102 | 13% | 54% | Last Result, Median |
| 103 | 11% | 42% | |
| 104 | 11% | 31% | |
| 105 | 9% | 20% | |
| 106 | 5% | 11% | |
| 107 | 3% | 6% | |
| 108 | 2% | 3% | |
| 109 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 110 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 81 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 83 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 84 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 85 | 2% | 98% | |
| 86 | 4% | 96% | Last Result |
| 87 | 6% | 92% | |
| 88 | 10% | 86% | |
| 89 | 11% | 77% | |
| 90 | 13% | 66% | |
| 91 | 14% | 53% | Median |
| 92 | 13% | 40% | Majority |
| 93 | 9% | 27% | |
| 94 | 8% | 18% | |
| 95 | 5% | 10% | |
| 96 | 3% | 5% | |
| 97 | 2% | 3% | |
| 98 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 99 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 73 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 74 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 75 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 76 | 3% | 97% | |
| 77 | 5% | 94% | |
| 78 | 9% | 89% | |
| 79 | 11% | 80% | |
| 80 | 11% | 69% | |
| 81 | 13% | 58% | Last Result, Median |
| 82 | 13% | 46% | |
| 83 | 11% | 32% | |
| 84 | 8% | 21% | |
| 85 | 6% | 12% | |
| 86 | 3% | 6% | |
| 87 | 2% | 3% | |
| 88 | 0.9% | 1.5% | |
| 89 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 72 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 73 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 74 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 75 | 4% | 97% | |
| 76 | 6% | 93% | |
| 77 | 9% | 88% | |
| 78 | 11% | 79% | |
| 79 | 13% | 67% | |
| 80 | 14% | 54% | Median |
| 81 | 12% | 41% | |
| 82 | 10% | 29% | |
| 83 | 8% | 18% | |
| 84 | 5% | 11% | |
| 85 | 3% | 6% | |
| 86 | 2% | 3% | |
| 87 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 88 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 64 | 1.3% | 99.1% | |
| 65 | 3% | 98% | |
| 66 | 5% | 95% | Last Result |
| 67 | 8% | 91% | |
| 68 | 10% | 83% | |
| 69 | 13% | 72% | |
| 70 | 14% | 60% | Median |
| 71 | 13% | 46% | |
| 72 | 12% | 33% | |
| 73 | 8% | 21% | |
| 74 | 6% | 13% | |
| 75 | 4% | 7% | |
| 76 | 2% | 3% | |
| 77 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 78 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 55 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 56 | 3% | 97% | |
| 57 | 5% | 94% | |
| 58 | 9% | 89% | |
| 59 | 11% | 80% | |
| 60 | 14% | 69% | |
| 61 | 15% | 55% | Median |
| 62 | 12% | 41% | |
| 63 | 11% | 28% | |
| 64 | 8% | 17% | |
| 65 | 5% | 10% | |
| 66 | 3% | 5% | |
| 67 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 68 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 69 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 34 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 35 | 5% | 97% | |
| 36 | 8% | 92% | |
| 37 | 13% | 84% | |
| 38 | 16% | 71% | |
| 39 | 16% | 54% | Median |
| 40 | 14% | 38% | Last Result |
| 41 | 11% | 24% | |
| 42 | 7% | 14% | |
| 43 | 4% | 7% | |
| 44 | 2% | 3% | |
| 45 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 46 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Market
- Commissioner(s): Der Standard
- Fieldwork period: 18–19 May 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.75%