Opinion Poll by Market for Der Standard, 21–26 May 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 44.0% 41.8–46.3% 41.2–46.9% 40.6–47.4% 39.6–48.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 20.0% 18.3–21.9% 17.8–22.5% 17.4–22.9% 16.6–23.9%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 15.9% 14.4–17.7% 13.9–18.2% 13.6–18.6% 12.9–19.5%
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 12.0% 10.6–13.6% 10.2–14.0% 9.9–14.4% 9.3–15.2%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 7.0% 6.0–8.3% 5.7–8.7% 5.5–9.0% 5.0–9.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 82 78–86 76–87 75–88 73–90
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 37 34–40 33–41 32–42 30–44
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 29 26–33 26–33 25–34 24–36
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 22 19–25 19–26 18–26 17–28
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 13 11–15 10–16 10–16 9–18

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100% Last Result
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.3% 99.8%  
74 0.8% 99.5%  
75 2% 98.7%  
76 2% 97%  
77 4% 95%  
78 7% 90%  
79 9% 83%  
80 10% 74%  
81 12% 64%  
82 12% 52% Median
83 11% 40%  
84 9% 28%  
85 7% 19%  
86 5% 12%  
87 3% 7%  
88 2% 4%  
89 0.9% 2%  
90 0.5% 0.8%  
91 0.2% 0.3%  
92 0.1% 0.1% Majority
93 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.4% 99.9%  
31 1.0% 99.5%  
32 2% 98%  
33 5% 96%  
34 8% 91%  
35 11% 83%  
36 14% 72%  
37 16% 58% Median
38 13% 42%  
39 11% 28%  
40 8% 17% Last Result
41 5% 10%  
42 3% 5%  
43 1.3% 2%  
44 0.5% 0.8%  
45 0.2% 0.3%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.4% 99.9%  
24 1.2% 99.5%  
25 3% 98%  
26 6% 95% Last Result
27 11% 89%  
28 14% 79%  
29 16% 64% Median
30 16% 48%  
31 13% 32%  
32 9% 19%  
33 5% 10%  
34 3% 5%  
35 1.3% 2%  
36 0.5% 0.8%  
37 0.2% 0.3%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 1.0% 99.7%  
18 3% 98.7%  
19 7% 96%  
20 13% 89%  
21 17% 76%  
22 19% 59% Median
23 16% 41%  
24 12% 24%  
25 7% 13%  
26 3% 6%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.5% 0.8%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 1.5% 99.8%  
10 6% 98%  
11 14% 92%  
12 22% 79%  
13 23% 57% Median
14 17% 34%  
15 10% 16% Last Result
16 4% 6%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0.4% 0.5%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 112 124 100% 120–128 119–129 118–130 116–132
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 111 119 100% 115–123 113–124 112–125 110–127
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 111 100% 107–115 106–116 105–117 103–119
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 102 104 100% 100–108 98–109 97–110 95–112
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 94 82% 90–99 89–100 88–101 86–103
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 82 0.1% 78–86 76–87 75–88 73–90
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 81 79 0% 75–83 74–85 73–86 71–88
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 66 0% 62–70 61–72 60–73 58–74
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 71 59 0% 55–63 54–64 53–65 51–67
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 37 0% 34–40 33–41 32–42 30–44

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100% Last Result
113 0% 100%  
114 0.1% 100%  
115 0.2% 99.9%  
116 0.5% 99.6%  
117 1.1% 99.2%  
118 2% 98%  
119 3% 96%  
120 6% 93%  
121 8% 87%  
122 11% 79%  
123 12% 68%  
124 13% 55% Median
125 12% 43%  
126 11% 31%  
127 8% 20%  
128 6% 12%  
129 3% 7%  
130 2% 3%  
131 0.9% 1.5%  
132 0.3% 0.6%  
133 0.1% 0.2%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
108 0% 100%  
109 0.1% 99.9%  
110 0.3% 99.8%  
111 0.7% 99.5% Last Result
112 1.4% 98.8%  
113 2% 97%  
114 4% 95%  
115 7% 91%  
116 8% 84%  
117 11% 76%  
118 12% 65%  
119 13% 53% Median
120 11% 40%  
121 10% 29%  
122 7% 18%  
123 5% 11%  
124 3% 6%  
125 2% 3%  
126 0.8% 1.4%  
127 0.3% 0.6%  
128 0.1% 0.2%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0% 100% Last Result
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.3% 99.8%  
103 0.5% 99.6%  
104 1.1% 99.1%  
105 2% 98%  
106 4% 96%  
107 5% 92%  
108 8% 87%  
109 10% 79%  
110 12% 69%  
111 12% 57% Median
112 12% 45%  
113 10% 33%  
114 8% 23%  
115 6% 14%  
116 4% 8%  
117 2% 4%  
118 1.3% 2%  
119 0.6% 0.9%  
120 0.2% 0.4%  
121 0.1% 0.1%  
122 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0.1% 100%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.4% 99.8%  
96 0.8% 99.4%  
97 1.5% 98.6%  
98 3% 97%  
99 4% 95%  
100 6% 90%  
101 9% 84%  
102 10% 75% Last Result
103 12% 65%  
104 12% 53% Median
105 11% 41%  
106 10% 29%  
107 7% 19%  
108 5% 12%  
109 3% 7%  
110 2% 4%  
111 1.0% 2%  
112 0.5% 0.8%  
113 0.2% 0.3%  
114 0.1% 0.1%  
115 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0.2% 99.9%  
86 0.4% 99.7% Last Result
87 0.8% 99.3%  
88 2% 98%  
89 3% 97%  
90 5% 94%  
91 7% 89%  
92 9% 82% Majority
93 11% 73%  
94 13% 62%  
95 11% 50% Median
96 11% 38%  
97 9% 27%  
98 7% 18%  
99 5% 11%  
100 3% 6%  
101 2% 3%  
102 0.9% 2%  
103 0.4% 0.7%  
104 0.2% 0.3%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100% Last Result
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.3% 99.8%  
74 0.8% 99.5%  
75 2% 98.7%  
76 2% 97%  
77 4% 95%  
78 7% 90%  
79 9% 83%  
80 10% 74%  
81 12% 64%  
82 12% 52% Median
83 11% 40%  
84 9% 28%  
85 7% 19%  
86 5% 12%  
87 3% 7%  
88 2% 4%  
89 0.9% 2%  
90 0.5% 0.8%  
91 0.2% 0.3%  
92 0.1% 0.1% Majority
93 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.5% 99.7%  
72 1.0% 99.2%  
73 2% 98%  
74 3% 96%  
75 5% 93%  
76 7% 88%  
77 10% 81%  
78 11% 71%  
79 12% 59% Median
80 12% 47%  
81 10% 35% Last Result
82 9% 25%  
83 6% 16%  
84 4% 10%  
85 3% 5%  
86 1.5% 3%  
87 0.8% 1.4%  
88 0.4% 0.6%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.2% 99.9%  
58 0.3% 99.8%  
59 0.6% 99.5%  
60 2% 98.9%  
61 4% 97%  
62 4% 93%  
63 5% 89%  
64 11% 84%  
65 14% 74%  
66 13% 60% Last Result, Median
67 7% 47%  
68 13% 39%  
69 11% 27%  
70 7% 16%  
71 3% 9%  
72 3% 6%  
73 2% 3%  
74 0.8% 1.2%  
75 0.2% 0.5%  
76 0.2% 0.3%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.3% 99.8%  
52 0.9% 99.4%  
53 2% 98.5%  
54 3% 97%  
55 6% 93%  
56 8% 88%  
57 11% 80%  
58 12% 69%  
59 13% 57% Median
60 12% 45%  
61 11% 32%  
62 8% 21%  
63 6% 13%  
64 3% 7%  
65 2% 4%  
66 1.1% 2%  
67 0.5% 0.8%  
68 0.2% 0.4%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.4% 99.9%  
31 1.0% 99.5%  
32 2% 98%  
33 5% 96%  
34 8% 91%  
35 11% 83%  
36 14% 72%  
37 16% 58% Median
38 13% 42%  
39 11% 28%  
40 8% 17% Last Result
41 5% 10%  
42 3% 5%  
43 1.3% 2%  
44 0.5% 0.8%  
45 0.2% 0.3%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations