Opinion Poll by Karmasin Research & Identity, 5–9 June 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 42.0% 40.0–44.0% 39.5–44.6% 39.0–45.1% 38.0–46.1%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 19.0% 17.5–20.7% 17.1–21.1% 16.7–21.6% 16.0–22.4%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 15.0% 13.6–16.5% 13.2–17.0% 12.9–17.4% 12.3–18.1%
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 13.0% 11.7–14.5% 11.4–14.9% 11.1–15.2% 10.5–16.0%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.0–10.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 79 76–83 74–84 73–85 72–87
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 36 33–39 32–40 31–41 30–42
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 28 25–31 25–32 24–33 23–34
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 24 22–27 21–28 21–28 19–30
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 15 13–17 12–18 12–18 11–19

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.3% 99.8% Last Result
72 0.7% 99.5%  
73 1.4% 98.8%  
74 3% 97%  
75 5% 95%  
76 7% 90%  
77 9% 83%  
78 11% 74%  
79 14% 62% Median
80 13% 49%  
81 12% 36%  
82 9% 24%  
83 7% 15%  
84 4% 9%  
85 2% 5%  
86 1.2% 2%  
87 0.6% 1.0%  
88 0.3% 0.4%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.3% 99.9%  
30 0.8% 99.7%  
31 2% 98.9%  
32 5% 97%  
33 9% 92%  
34 13% 83%  
35 16% 70%  
36 16% 53% Median
37 15% 38%  
38 10% 23%  
39 7% 13%  
40 3% 6% Last Result
41 2% 3%  
42 0.6% 0.9%  
43 0.2% 0.3%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100%  
22 0.2% 99.9%  
23 0.9% 99.7%  
24 3% 98.8%  
25 6% 96%  
26 11% 90% Last Result
27 17% 78%  
28 17% 61% Median
29 17% 44%  
30 14% 27%  
31 7% 13%  
32 4% 6%  
33 2% 3%  
34 0.5% 0.8%  
35 0.2% 0.3%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.5% 99.9%  
20 2% 99.4%  
21 5% 98%  
22 10% 92%  
23 16% 82%  
24 19% 66% Median
25 18% 47%  
26 14% 29%  
27 8% 15%  
28 4% 7%  
29 2% 2%  
30 0.6% 0.8%  
31 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
32 0% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 1.3% 99.8%  
12 5% 98.5%  
13 14% 93%  
14 22% 80%  
15 24% 58% Last Result, Median
16 18% 34%  
17 10% 16%  
18 4% 6%  
19 1.3% 2%  
20 0.4% 0.4%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 112 123 100% 119–126 117–127 116–128 114–130
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 111 115 100% 111–119 110–120 109–121 107–123
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 108 100% 104–112 102–113 101–113 99–115
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 102 104 100% 100–108 99–109 97–110 95–112
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 94 82% 90–98 89–99 88–100 86–102
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 81 79 0% 75–83 74–84 73–85 71–87
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 79 0% 76–83 74–84 73–85 72–87
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 64 0% 60–68 59–69 58–70 56–71
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 71 60 0% 56–64 55–65 55–66 53–68
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 36 0% 33–39 32–40 31–41 30–42

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
111 0% 100%  
112 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
113 0.2% 99.8%  
114 0.4% 99.6%  
115 0.8% 99.2%  
116 1.5% 98%  
117 2% 97%  
118 4% 94%  
119 6% 90%  
120 9% 84%  
121 11% 75%  
122 13% 64% Median
123 13% 51%  
124 12% 38%  
125 10% 25%  
126 7% 15%  
127 4% 8%  
128 2% 4%  
129 1.1% 2%  
130 0.4% 0.7%  
131 0.2% 0.2%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
104 0% 100%  
105 0.1% 99.9%  
106 0.2% 99.8%  
107 0.5% 99.5%  
108 1.0% 99.0%  
109 2% 98%  
110 3% 96%  
111 5% 93% Last Result
112 7% 89%  
113 10% 81%  
114 12% 72%  
115 13% 60% Median
116 13% 47%  
117 11% 33%  
118 9% 22%  
119 6% 13%  
120 4% 7%  
121 2% 4%  
122 0.9% 2%  
123 0.4% 0.6%  
124 0.2% 0.2%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0.1% 100% Last Result
98 0.2% 99.9%  
99 0.4% 99.7%  
100 0.7% 99.3%  
101 1.4% 98.6%  
102 3% 97%  
103 4% 95%  
104 6% 90%  
105 9% 84%  
106 11% 76%  
107 13% 65% Median
108 13% 52%  
109 12% 39%  
110 10% 27%  
111 7% 17%  
112 5% 10%  
113 3% 5%  
114 1.4% 2%  
115 0.7% 1.1%  
116 0.3% 0.4%  
117 0.1% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0.1% 100%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.3% 99.8%  
96 0.6% 99.4%  
97 1.3% 98.8%  
98 2% 97%  
99 4% 95%  
100 6% 92%  
101 8% 86%  
102 11% 78% Last Result
103 13% 67% Median
104 13% 54%  
105 12% 41%  
106 10% 29%  
107 8% 19%  
108 5% 11%  
109 3% 6%  
110 2% 3%  
111 0.8% 1.3%  
112 0.3% 0.5%  
113 0.1% 0.2%  
114 0% 0.1%  
115 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0.2% 99.9%  
86 0.4% 99.7% Last Result
87 0.9% 99.3%  
88 2% 98%  
89 3% 97%  
90 5% 94%  
91 7% 89%  
92 10% 82% Majority
93 12% 72%  
94 14% 61% Median
95 13% 47%  
96 11% 34%  
97 9% 23%  
98 6% 15%  
99 4% 9%  
100 2% 5%  
101 1.3% 2%  
102 0.6% 0.9%  
103 0.2% 0.3%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.5% 99.6%  
72 1.1% 99.1%  
73 2% 98%  
74 4% 96%  
75 6% 92%  
76 9% 86%  
77 10% 78%  
78 13% 67%  
79 13% 54% Median
80 12% 41%  
81 10% 29% Last Result
82 8% 19%  
83 5% 11%  
84 3% 6%  
85 2% 3%  
86 0.8% 1.3%  
87 0.3% 0.5%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.3% 99.8% Last Result
72 0.7% 99.5%  
73 1.4% 98.8%  
74 3% 97%  
75 5% 95%  
76 7% 90%  
77 9% 83%  
78 11% 74%  
79 14% 62% Median
80 13% 49%  
81 12% 36%  
82 9% 24%  
83 7% 15%  
84 4% 9%  
85 2% 5%  
86 1.2% 2%  
87 0.6% 1.0%  
88 0.3% 0.4%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.3% 99.8%  
57 0.8% 99.5%  
58 2% 98.7%  
59 3% 97%  
60 5% 94%  
61 8% 88%  
62 11% 80%  
63 13% 69%  
64 14% 56% Median
65 13% 42%  
66 11% 29% Last Result
67 8% 19%  
68 5% 11%  
69 3% 6%  
70 2% 3%  
71 0.7% 1.2%  
72 0.3% 0.5%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.6% 99.7%  
54 1.4% 99.0%  
55 3% 98%  
56 5% 95%  
57 8% 90%  
58 11% 82%  
59 13% 71%  
60 14% 58% Median
61 13% 45%  
62 11% 31%  
63 8% 20%  
64 6% 12%  
65 3% 6%  
66 2% 3%  
67 0.8% 1.3%  
68 0.3% 0.5%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.3% 99.9%  
30 0.8% 99.7%  
31 2% 98.9%  
32 5% 97%  
33 9% 92%  
34 13% 83%  
35 16% 70%  
36 16% 53% Median
37 15% 38%  
38 10% 23%  
39 7% 13%  
40 3% 6% Last Result
41 2% 3%  
42 0.6% 0.9%  
43 0.2% 0.3%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations