Opinion Poll by OGM, 23–25 June 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 42.0% 39.8–44.2% 39.2–44.9% 38.6–45.4% 37.6–46.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 19.0% 17.3–20.9% 16.8–21.4% 16.4–21.9% 15.7–22.8%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 16.0% 14.5–17.8% 14.0–18.3% 13.6–18.7% 12.9–19.6%
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 13.0% 11.6–14.7% 11.2–15.2% 10.9–15.6% 10.2–16.4%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 8.0% 6.8–9.3% 6.5–9.7% 6.3–10.0% 5.8–10.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 79 75–83 73–84 72–85 70–87
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 35 32–39 31–40 30–41 29–42
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 30 27–33 26–34 25–35 24–36
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 24 21–27 21–28 20–29 19–30
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 15 12–17 12–18 11–18 10–20

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.3% 99.8%  
71 0.8% 99.4% Last Result
72 1.5% 98.7%  
73 3% 97%  
74 4% 94%  
75 7% 90%  
76 8% 83%  
77 11% 75%  
78 11% 64%  
79 13% 53% Median
80 11% 40%  
81 10% 29%  
82 7% 19%  
83 5% 12%  
84 3% 7%  
85 2% 4%  
86 1.0% 2%  
87 0.5% 0.9%  
88 0.2% 0.4%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0.2% 99.9%  
29 0.6% 99.7%  
30 2% 99.1%  
31 3% 97%  
32 7% 94%  
33 10% 87%  
34 13% 77%  
35 15% 64% Median
36 15% 49%  
37 12% 34%  
38 9% 22%  
39 6% 13%  
40 3% 6% Last Result
41 2% 3%  
42 0.8% 1.3%  
43 0.3% 0.5%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.2% 99.9%  
24 0.8% 99.7%  
25 2% 98.9%  
26 5% 97% Last Result
27 8% 92%  
28 13% 84%  
29 15% 70%  
30 16% 55% Median
31 14% 39%  
32 10% 25%  
33 7% 14%  
34 4% 7%  
35 2% 3%  
36 0.8% 1.3%  
37 0.3% 0.5%  
38 0.1% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 0.9% 99.7%  
20 3% 98.8%  
21 7% 96%  
22 11% 89%  
23 16% 78%  
24 16% 62% Median
25 17% 46%  
26 13% 29%  
27 8% 16%  
28 4% 8%  
29 2% 3%  
30 0.9% 1.2%  
31 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.5% 99.9%  
11 3% 99.4%  
12 8% 97%  
13 15% 89%  
14 21% 74%  
15 21% 52% Last Result, Median
16 16% 31%  
17 9% 15%  
18 4% 6%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.5% 0.6%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 112 123 100% 119–127 118–128 117–129 115–131
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 111 114 100% 110–118 109–119 108–120 106–122
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 109 100% 104–113 103–114 102–115 100–117
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 102 103 100% 99–107 98–108 97–109 94–111
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 93 72% 89–98 88–99 87–100 85–102
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 81 80 0% 76–84 75–85 74–86 72–89
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 79 0% 75–83 73–84 72–85 70–87
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 65 0% 61–69 60–71 59–72 57–74
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 71 60 0% 56–64 55–65 54–66 52–68
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 35 0% 32–39 31–40 30–41 29–42

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100% Last Result
113 0.1% 100%  
114 0.2% 99.9%  
115 0.4% 99.7%  
116 0.8% 99.3%  
117 2% 98%  
118 3% 97%  
119 5% 93%  
120 7% 89%  
121 9% 81%  
122 13% 72%  
123 13% 59%  
124 11% 46% Median
125 11% 35%  
126 9% 24%  
127 7% 15%  
128 4% 8%  
129 2% 4%  
130 1.3% 2%  
131 0.5% 0.8%  
132 0.2% 0.3%  
133 0.1% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.2% 99.8%  
106 0.5% 99.6%  
107 1.2% 99.1%  
108 2% 98%  
109 3% 96%  
110 6% 93%  
111 7% 87% Last Result
112 10% 80%  
113 11% 70%  
114 13% 59% Median
115 12% 46%  
116 10% 34%  
117 9% 24%  
118 6% 15%  
119 4% 9%  
120 3% 5%  
121 1.2% 2%  
122 0.6% 1.0%  
123 0.3% 0.4%  
124 0.1% 0.1%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0% 100% Last Result
98 0.1% 100%  
99 0.2% 99.9%  
100 0.4% 99.7%  
101 0.9% 99.3%  
102 2% 98%  
103 3% 97%  
104 4% 94%  
105 7% 90%  
106 10% 83%  
107 11% 74%  
108 12% 62%  
109 11% 51% Median
110 12% 39%  
111 9% 28%  
112 7% 19%  
113 5% 11%  
114 3% 6%  
115 2% 3%  
116 0.9% 2%  
117 0.4% 0.7%  
118 0.2% 0.3%  
119 0.1% 0.1%  
120 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0% 100% Majority
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.3% 99.8%  
95 0.6% 99.5%  
96 1.4% 98.9%  
97 2% 98%  
98 3% 95%  
99 6% 92%  
100 8% 85%  
101 10% 77%  
102 11% 68% Last Result
103 12% 56% Median
104 12% 44%  
105 10% 32%  
106 9% 22%  
107 6% 14%  
108 4% 8%  
109 2% 5%  
110 1.2% 2%  
111 0.6% 1.0%  
112 0.3% 0.4%  
113 0.1% 0.2%  
114 0% 0.1%  
115 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0.1% 100%  
84 0.2% 99.9%  
85 0.5% 99.6%  
86 1.0% 99.1% Last Result
87 2% 98%  
88 3% 96%  
89 5% 93%  
90 7% 88%  
91 9% 81%  
92 11% 72% Majority
93 12% 61%  
94 12% 49% Median
95 11% 37%  
96 9% 26%  
97 7% 17%  
98 4% 10%  
99 3% 6%  
100 2% 3%  
101 0.8% 2%  
102 0.5% 0.7%  
103 0.2% 0.3%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.3% 99.8%  
72 0.6% 99.6%  
73 1.2% 99.0%  
74 2% 98%  
75 4% 95%  
76 6% 92%  
77 9% 86%  
78 10% 78%  
79 12% 68%  
80 12% 56% Median
81 11% 44% Last Result
82 10% 32%  
83 8% 23%  
84 6% 14%  
85 3% 8%  
86 2% 5%  
87 1.3% 2%  
88 0.6% 1.1%  
89 0.3% 0.5%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0% Majority

Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.3% 99.8%  
71 0.8% 99.4% Last Result
72 1.5% 98.7%  
73 3% 97%  
74 4% 94%  
75 7% 90%  
76 8% 83%  
77 11% 75%  
78 11% 64%  
79 13% 53% Median
80 11% 40%  
81 10% 29%  
82 7% 19%  
83 5% 12%  
84 3% 7%  
85 2% 4%  
86 1.0% 2%  
87 0.5% 0.9%  
88 0.2% 0.4%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.3% 99.8%  
58 0.9% 99.4%  
59 2% 98.6%  
60 3% 97%  
61 5% 94%  
62 7% 89%  
63 9% 82%  
64 12% 72%  
65 12% 60% Median
66 12% 48% Last Result
67 11% 35%  
68 8% 24%  
69 7% 16%  
70 4% 10%  
71 3% 5%  
72 1.4% 3%  
73 0.7% 1.2%  
74 0.4% 0.6%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.9%  
52 0.5% 99.7%  
53 1.3% 99.2%  
54 2% 98%  
55 4% 96%  
56 7% 92%  
57 9% 85%  
58 11% 76%  
59 11% 65% Median
60 13% 54%  
61 13% 41%  
62 9% 28%  
63 7% 19%  
64 5% 11%  
65 3% 7%  
66 2% 3%  
67 0.8% 1.5%  
68 0.4% 0.7%  
69 0.2% 0.3%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0.2% 99.9%  
29 0.6% 99.7%  
30 2% 99.1%  
31 3% 97%  
32 7% 94%  
33 10% 87%  
34 13% 77%  
35 15% 64% Median
36 15% 49%  
37 12% 34%  
38 9% 22%  
39 6% 13%  
40 3% 6% Last Result
41 2% 3%  
42 0.8% 1.3%  
43 0.3% 0.5%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations