Opinion Poll by Unique Research for profil, 13–16 July 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 37.5% | 40.9% | 38.7–43.2% | 38.1–43.9% | 37.6–44.4% | 36.5–45.5% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 21.2% | 19.0% | 17.3–20.9% | 16.8–21.4% | 16.4–21.8% | 15.6–22.8% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 13.9% | 16.0% | 14.4–17.8% | 14.0–18.2% | 13.6–18.7% | 12.9–19.6% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 16.2% | 15.0% | 13.5–16.7% | 13.0–17.2% | 12.7–17.6% | 12.0–18.5% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.9–9.4% | 6.6–9.7% | 6.3–10.1% | 5.8–10.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 76 | 72–80 | 71–81 | 70–82 | 68–84 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 35 | 32–38 | 31–39 | 30–40 | 29–42 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 26 | 29 | 26–33 | 26–34 | 25–34 | 24–36 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 31 | 28 | 25–31 | 24–32 | 23–32 | 22–34 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 15 | 15 | 12–17 | 12–18 | 11–18 | 10–20 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 69 | 1.2% | 99.1% | |
| 70 | 2% | 98% | |
| 71 | 4% | 96% | Last Result |
| 72 | 5% | 92% | |
| 73 | 8% | 87% | |
| 74 | 10% | 79% | |
| 75 | 12% | 68% | |
| 76 | 12% | 57% | Median |
| 77 | 12% | 45% | |
| 78 | 10% | 33% | |
| 79 | 8% | 23% | |
| 80 | 6% | 14% | |
| 81 | 4% | 9% | |
| 82 | 2% | 5% | |
| 83 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 84 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 85 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 30 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 31 | 5% | 97% | |
| 32 | 8% | 92% | |
| 33 | 11% | 84% | |
| 34 | 14% | 73% | |
| 35 | 15% | 59% | Median |
| 36 | 14% | 43% | |
| 37 | 11% | 29% | |
| 38 | 8% | 18% | |
| 39 | 5% | 10% | |
| 40 | 3% | 5% | Last Result |
| 41 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 42 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 1.1% | 99.6% | |
| 25 | 3% | 98% | |
| 26 | 6% | 96% | Last Result |
| 27 | 10% | 90% | |
| 28 | 14% | 80% | |
| 29 | 17% | 66% | Median |
| 30 | 15% | 49% | |
| 31 | 13% | 34% | |
| 32 | 10% | 21% | |
| 33 | 6% | 11% | |
| 34 | 3% | 5% | |
| 35 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 36 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 23 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 24 | 5% | 97% | |
| 25 | 9% | 91% | |
| 26 | 14% | 82% | |
| 27 | 16% | 68% | |
| 28 | 16% | 52% | Median |
| 29 | 14% | 36% | |
| 30 | 10% | 22% | |
| 31 | 6% | 11% | Last Result |
| 32 | 3% | 6% | |
| 33 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 34 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 12 | 8% | 97% | |
| 13 | 16% | 89% | |
| 14 | 21% | 73% | |
| 15 | 21% | 51% | Last Result, Median |
| 16 | 15% | 31% | |
| 17 | 9% | 15% | |
| 18 | 4% | 6% | |
| 19 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 20 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 112 | 120 | 100% | 116–124 | 115–125 | 114–126 | 112–128 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 111 | 111 | 100% | 107–115 | 106–116 | 105–117 | 103–119 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 97 | 106 | 100% | 101–110 | 100–111 | 99–112 | 97–114 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 102 | 104 | 100% | 100–108 | 98–109 | 97–110 | 95–112 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 86 | 91 | 41% | 86–95 | 85–96 | 84–97 | 82–99 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 81 | 79 | 0% | 75–83 | 74–85 | 73–86 | 71–88 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 76 | 0% | 72–80 | 71–81 | 70–82 | 68–84 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 66 | 65 | 0% | 61–69 | 59–70 | 59–71 | 57–73 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 71 | 63 | 0% | 59–67 | 58–68 | 57–69 | 55–71 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 35 | 0% | 32–38 | 31–39 | 30–40 | 29–42 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 110 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 112 | 0.4% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 113 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 114 | 2% | 98% | |
| 115 | 3% | 96% | |
| 116 | 5% | 94% | |
| 117 | 7% | 88% | |
| 118 | 11% | 81% | |
| 119 | 11% | 70% | |
| 120 | 12% | 60% | Median |
| 121 | 12% | 47% | |
| 122 | 12% | 35% | |
| 123 | 9% | 23% | |
| 124 | 6% | 14% | |
| 125 | 4% | 9% | |
| 126 | 3% | 5% | |
| 127 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 128 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 129 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100 | 0% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 102 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 103 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 104 | 1.1% | 99.1% | |
| 105 | 2% | 98% | |
| 106 | 3% | 96% | |
| 107 | 5% | 93% | |
| 108 | 8% | 88% | |
| 109 | 10% | 80% | |
| 110 | 12% | 70% | |
| 111 | 12% | 59% | Last Result, Median |
| 112 | 13% | 46% | |
| 113 | 10% | 34% | |
| 114 | 8% | 24% | |
| 115 | 6% | 15% | |
| 116 | 4% | 9% | |
| 117 | 2% | 5% | |
| 118 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 119 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 120 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 95 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 97 | 0.4% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 98 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 99 | 2% | 98% | |
| 100 | 3% | 97% | |
| 101 | 5% | 94% | |
| 102 | 6% | 89% | |
| 103 | 9% | 83% | |
| 104 | 11% | 74% | |
| 105 | 11% | 63% | Median |
| 106 | 12% | 52% | |
| 107 | 12% | 40% | |
| 108 | 9% | 27% | |
| 109 | 7% | 19% | |
| 110 | 5% | 12% | |
| 111 | 3% | 6% | |
| 112 | 2% | 3% | |
| 113 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 114 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 115 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 95 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 96 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 97 | 1.4% | 98.6% | |
| 98 | 3% | 97% | |
| 99 | 4% | 94% | |
| 100 | 6% | 90% | |
| 101 | 8% | 84% | |
| 102 | 10% | 75% | Last Result |
| 103 | 12% | 65% | |
| 104 | 12% | 53% | Median |
| 105 | 11% | 41% | |
| 106 | 10% | 29% | |
| 107 | 7% | 20% | |
| 108 | 5% | 13% | |
| 109 | 4% | 7% | |
| 110 | 2% | 4% | |
| 111 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 112 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 113 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 82 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 83 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 84 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 85 | 3% | 97% | |
| 86 | 4% | 94% | Last Result |
| 87 | 6% | 90% | |
| 88 | 9% | 84% | |
| 89 | 11% | 75% | |
| 90 | 12% | 64% | |
| 91 | 11% | 52% | Median |
| 92 | 11% | 41% | Majority |
| 93 | 10% | 30% | |
| 94 | 7% | 20% | |
| 95 | 5% | 12% | |
| 96 | 3% | 7% | |
| 97 | 2% | 4% | |
| 98 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 99 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 72 | 1.0% | 99.1% | |
| 73 | 2% | 98% | |
| 74 | 4% | 96% | |
| 75 | 5% | 93% | |
| 76 | 7% | 87% | |
| 77 | 10% | 80% | |
| 78 | 11% | 71% | |
| 79 | 12% | 59% | Median |
| 80 | 12% | 47% | |
| 81 | 10% | 35% | Last Result |
| 82 | 8% | 25% | |
| 83 | 6% | 16% | |
| 84 | 4% | 10% | |
| 85 | 3% | 6% | |
| 86 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 87 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 88 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 89 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 69 | 1.2% | 99.1% | |
| 70 | 2% | 98% | |
| 71 | 4% | 96% | Last Result |
| 72 | 5% | 92% | |
| 73 | 8% | 87% | |
| 74 | 10% | 79% | |
| 75 | 12% | 68% | |
| 76 | 12% | 57% | Median |
| 77 | 12% | 45% | |
| 78 | 10% | 33% | |
| 79 | 8% | 23% | |
| 80 | 6% | 14% | |
| 81 | 4% | 9% | |
| 82 | 2% | 5% | |
| 83 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 84 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 85 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 57 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 58 | 1.4% | 98.9% | |
| 59 | 3% | 98% | |
| 60 | 4% | 95% | |
| 61 | 7% | 91% | |
| 62 | 9% | 84% | |
| 63 | 11% | 75% | |
| 64 | 13% | 64% | Median |
| 65 | 13% | 52% | |
| 66 | 12% | 39% | Last Result |
| 67 | 9% | 27% | |
| 68 | 7% | 18% | |
| 69 | 5% | 11% | |
| 70 | 3% | 6% | |
| 71 | 2% | 3% | |
| 72 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 73 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 74 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 56 | 1.2% | 99.1% | |
| 57 | 3% | 98% | |
| 58 | 4% | 95% | |
| 59 | 6% | 91% | |
| 60 | 9% | 86% | |
| 61 | 12% | 77% | |
| 62 | 12% | 65% | |
| 63 | 12% | 53% | Median |
| 64 | 11% | 40% | |
| 65 | 11% | 30% | |
| 66 | 7% | 19% | |
| 67 | 5% | 12% | |
| 68 | 3% | 6% | |
| 69 | 2% | 4% | |
| 70 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 71 | 0.4% | 0.7% | Last Result |
| 72 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 30 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 31 | 5% | 97% | |
| 32 | 8% | 92% | |
| 33 | 11% | 84% | |
| 34 | 14% | 73% | |
| 35 | 15% | 59% | Median |
| 36 | 14% | 43% | |
| 37 | 11% | 29% | |
| 38 | 8% | 18% | |
| 39 | 5% | 10% | |
| 40 | 3% | 5% | Last Result |
| 41 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 42 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Unique Research
- Commissioner(s): profil
- Fieldwork period: 13–16 July 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 801
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.79%