Opinion Poll by Unique Research, 14–18 September 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 37.5% | 39.1% | 36.9–41.3% | 36.3–41.9% | 35.7–42.5% | 34.7–43.6% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 21.2% | 20.0% | 18.3–21.9% | 17.8–22.5% | 17.4–22.9% | 16.6–23.9% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 16.2% | 16.0% | 14.5–17.8% | 14.0–18.3% | 13.7–18.7% | 13.0–19.6% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 13.9% | 16.0% | 14.5–17.8% | 14.0–18.3% | 13.7–18.7% | 13.0–19.6% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.9–9.3% | 6.5–9.7% | 6.3–10.0% | 5.8–10.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 72 | 68–76 | 67–78 | 66–79 | 64–81 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 37 | 34–40 | 33–41 | 32–42 | 30–44 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 31 | 30 | 27–33 | 26–34 | 25–34 | 24–36 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 26 | 30 | 27–33 | 26–34 | 25–34 | 24–36 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 15 | 14 | 12–17 | 12–18 | 11–18 | 10–19 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 65 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 66 | 2% | 98% | |
| 67 | 3% | 97% | |
| 68 | 5% | 94% | |
| 69 | 8% | 89% | |
| 70 | 9% | 81% | |
| 71 | 11% | 72% | Last Result |
| 72 | 13% | 61% | Median |
| 73 | 12% | 48% | |
| 74 | 11% | 36% | |
| 75 | 9% | 25% | |
| 76 | 7% | 16% | |
| 77 | 4% | 10% | |
| 78 | 3% | 6% | |
| 79 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 80 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 81 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 1.1% | 99.5% | |
| 32 | 3% | 98% | |
| 33 | 5% | 96% | |
| 34 | 8% | 91% | |
| 35 | 12% | 82% | |
| 36 | 15% | 71% | |
| 37 | 15% | 56% | Median |
| 38 | 14% | 42% | |
| 39 | 11% | 28% | |
| 40 | 7% | 17% | Last Result |
| 41 | 5% | 9% | |
| 42 | 3% | 5% | |
| 43 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 44 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 25 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 26 | 6% | 96% | |
| 27 | 10% | 90% | |
| 28 | 14% | 80% | |
| 29 | 15% | 66% | |
| 30 | 17% | 51% | Median |
| 31 | 13% | 34% | Last Result |
| 32 | 10% | 21% | |
| 33 | 6% | 11% | |
| 34 | 3% | 6% | |
| 35 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 36 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 25 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 26 | 6% | 96% | Last Result |
| 27 | 10% | 90% | |
| 28 | 13% | 80% | |
| 29 | 15% | 66% | |
| 30 | 17% | 51% | Median |
| 31 | 13% | 34% | |
| 32 | 10% | 21% | |
| 33 | 6% | 11% | |
| 34 | 3% | 6% | |
| 35 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 36 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 12 | 9% | 96% | |
| 13 | 17% | 88% | |
| 14 | 22% | 71% | Median |
| 15 | 21% | 49% | Last Result |
| 16 | 15% | 28% | |
| 17 | 8% | 14% | |
| 18 | 4% | 5% | |
| 19 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 20 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 112 | 116 | 100% | 112–120 | 111–122 | 110–123 | 108–124 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 111 | 109 | 100% | 105–113 | 104–115 | 103–116 | 101–118 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 102 | 102 | 99.9% | 98–106 | 97–107 | 96–108 | 93–110 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 97 | 102 | 99.9% | 98–106 | 97–107 | 95–108 | 93–110 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 86 | 87 | 8% | 83–91 | 81–92 | 80–93 | 78–95 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 81 | 81 | 0.1% | 77–85 | 76–86 | 75–87 | 73–90 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 72 | 0% | 68–76 | 67–78 | 66–79 | 64–81 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 66 | 67 | 0% | 62–71 | 61–72 | 60–73 | 59–75 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 71 | 67 | 0% | 63–71 | 61–72 | 60–73 | 59–75 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 37 | 0% | 34–40 | 33–41 | 32–42 | 30–44 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 106 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 108 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 109 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 110 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 111 | 3% | 97% | |
| 112 | 5% | 94% | Last Result |
| 113 | 7% | 90% | |
| 114 | 9% | 83% | |
| 115 | 12% | 73% | |
| 116 | 12% | 61% | Median |
| 117 | 12% | 49% | |
| 118 | 11% | 37% | |
| 119 | 10% | 27% | |
| 120 | 7% | 17% | |
| 121 | 5% | 10% | |
| 122 | 3% | 5% | |
| 123 | 2% | 3% | |
| 124 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 125 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 101 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 102 | 0.9% | 99.2% | |
| 103 | 2% | 98% | |
| 104 | 3% | 96% | |
| 105 | 5% | 93% | |
| 106 | 7% | 88% | |
| 107 | 10% | 81% | |
| 108 | 10% | 71% | |
| 109 | 13% | 60% | Median |
| 110 | 11% | 48% | |
| 111 | 12% | 37% | Last Result |
| 112 | 9% | 25% | |
| 113 | 7% | 16% | |
| 114 | 4% | 10% | |
| 115 | 3% | 5% | |
| 116 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 117 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 118 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 91 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 94 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 95 | 1.3% | 98.9% | |
| 96 | 2% | 98% | |
| 97 | 4% | 95% | |
| 98 | 6% | 91% | |
| 99 | 8% | 85% | |
| 100 | 10% | 77% | |
| 101 | 11% | 67% | |
| 102 | 13% | 56% | Last Result, Median |
| 103 | 11% | 43% | |
| 104 | 10% | 32% | |
| 105 | 8% | 22% | |
| 106 | 5% | 13% | |
| 107 | 4% | 8% | |
| 108 | 2% | 4% | |
| 109 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 110 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 111 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 94 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 95 | 1.4% | 98.9% | |
| 96 | 2% | 97% | |
| 97 | 4% | 95% | Last Result |
| 98 | 6% | 91% | |
| 99 | 8% | 85% | |
| 100 | 10% | 77% | |
| 101 | 12% | 67% | |
| 102 | 11% | 55% | Median |
| 103 | 12% | 44% | |
| 104 | 10% | 31% | |
| 105 | 8% | 22% | |
| 106 | 5% | 14% | |
| 107 | 4% | 8% | |
| 108 | 2% | 4% | |
| 109 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 110 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 111 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 78 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 79 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 80 | 1.4% | 98.8% | |
| 81 | 2% | 97% | |
| 82 | 4% | 95% | |
| 83 | 6% | 91% | |
| 84 | 8% | 85% | |
| 85 | 10% | 76% | |
| 86 | 12% | 66% | Last Result, Median |
| 87 | 12% | 54% | |
| 88 | 11% | 42% | |
| 89 | 9% | 31% | |
| 90 | 8% | 21% | |
| 91 | 5% | 14% | |
| 92 | 4% | 8% | Majority |
| 93 | 2% | 4% | |
| 94 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 95 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 96 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 73 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 74 | 1.2% | 99.0% | |
| 75 | 2% | 98% | |
| 76 | 4% | 96% | |
| 77 | 5% | 92% | |
| 78 | 8% | 87% | |
| 79 | 10% | 78% | |
| 80 | 11% | 68% | |
| 81 | 13% | 57% | Last Result, Median |
| 82 | 11% | 44% | |
| 83 | 10% | 33% | |
| 84 | 8% | 23% | |
| 85 | 6% | 15% | |
| 86 | 4% | 9% | |
| 87 | 2% | 5% | |
| 88 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 89 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 90 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 65 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 66 | 2% | 98% | |
| 67 | 3% | 97% | |
| 68 | 5% | 94% | |
| 69 | 8% | 89% | |
| 70 | 9% | 81% | |
| 71 | 11% | 72% | Last Result |
| 72 | 13% | 61% | Median |
| 73 | 12% | 48% | |
| 74 | 11% | 36% | |
| 75 | 9% | 25% | |
| 76 | 7% | 16% | |
| 77 | 4% | 10% | |
| 78 | 3% | 6% | |
| 79 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 80 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 81 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 59 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 60 | 1.5% | 98.8% | |
| 61 | 3% | 97% | |
| 62 | 5% | 95% | |
| 63 | 7% | 90% | |
| 64 | 10% | 83% | |
| 65 | 11% | 74% | |
| 66 | 13% | 63% | Last Result |
| 67 | 13% | 50% | Median |
| 68 | 11% | 38% | |
| 69 | 9% | 27% | |
| 70 | 7% | 17% | |
| 71 | 5% | 11% | |
| 72 | 3% | 6% | |
| 73 | 2% | 3% | |
| 74 | 0.8% | 1.5% | |
| 75 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 76 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 59 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 60 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 61 | 3% | 97% | |
| 62 | 5% | 95% | |
| 63 | 7% | 90% | |
| 64 | 10% | 83% | |
| 65 | 11% | 73% | |
| 66 | 12% | 63% | |
| 67 | 12% | 51% | Median |
| 68 | 12% | 39% | |
| 69 | 9% | 27% | |
| 70 | 7% | 17% | |
| 71 | 5% | 10% | Last Result |
| 72 | 3% | 6% | |
| 73 | 2% | 3% | |
| 74 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 75 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 76 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 1.1% | 99.5% | |
| 32 | 3% | 98% | |
| 33 | 5% | 96% | |
| 34 | 8% | 91% | |
| 35 | 12% | 82% | |
| 36 | 15% | 71% | |
| 37 | 15% | 56% | Median |
| 38 | 14% | 42% | |
| 39 | 11% | 28% | |
| 40 | 7% | 17% | Last Result |
| 41 | 5% | 9% | |
| 42 | 3% | 5% | |
| 43 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 44 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Unique Research
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 14–18 September 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 804
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.53%