Opinion Poll by Unique Research, 12–16 October 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 40.0% 37.8–42.2% 37.1–42.8% 36.6–43.4% 35.6–44.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 22.0% 20.2–23.9% 19.7–24.5% 19.2–25.0% 18.4–25.9%
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 13.0% 11.6–14.7% 11.2–15.1% 10.9–15.5% 10.2–16.4%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 13.0% 11.6–14.7% 11.2–15.1% 10.9–15.5% 10.2–16.4%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 9.1% 7.9–10.5% 7.5–10.9% 7.3–11.2% 6.7–12.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 75 71–80 70–81 69–82 67–84
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 41 38–45 37–46 36–47 34–49
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 24 22–27 21–28 20–29 19–31
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 24 22–27 21–28 20–29 19–31
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 17 14–19 14–20 13–21 12–22

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.2% 99.8%  
67 0.5% 99.6%  
68 1.1% 99.1%  
69 2% 98%  
70 3% 96%  
71 5% 93% Last Result
72 7% 88%  
73 9% 81%  
74 11% 72%  
75 12% 61% Median
76 12% 49%  
77 11% 37%  
78 9% 26%  
79 6% 18%  
80 5% 11%  
81 3% 6%  
82 2% 3%  
83 0.8% 2%  
84 0.5% 0.8%  
85 0.2% 0.3%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.5% 99.8%  
35 1.0% 99.4%  
36 2% 98%  
37 6% 97%  
38 6% 91%  
39 8% 85%  
40 17% 76% Last Result
41 12% 59% Median
42 11% 47%  
43 17% 36%  
44 6% 19%  
45 5% 13%  
46 5% 8%  
47 1.2% 3%  
48 0.9% 2%  
49 0.6% 0.7%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 0.9% 99.7%  
20 3% 98.8%  
21 6% 96%  
22 11% 91%  
23 16% 80%  
24 17% 64% Median
25 16% 47%  
26 13% 31%  
27 9% 18%  
28 5% 9%  
29 2% 4%  
30 1.0% 2%  
31 0.4% 0.6% Last Result
32 0.1% 0.2%  
33 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 0.8% 99.7%  
20 2% 98.9%  
21 6% 96%  
22 11% 91%  
23 15% 80%  
24 17% 64% Median
25 17% 47%  
26 12% 30% Last Result
27 9% 18%  
28 5% 9%  
29 3% 4%  
30 1.0% 2%  
31 0.4% 0.5%  
32 0.1% 0.2%  
33 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.6% 99.9%  
13 3% 99.3%  
14 7% 97%  
15 14% 90% Last Result
16 19% 76%  
17 21% 57% Median
18 16% 36%  
19 11% 20%  
20 6% 9%  
21 2% 4%  
22 0.9% 1.2%  
23 0.3% 0.3%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 112 117 100% 112–121 111–122 110–123 107–125
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 111 117 100% 112–121 111–122 110–123 107–125
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 100 99.0% 95–104 94–105 93–106 91–108
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 102 100 99.0% 95–104 94–105 93–106 91–109
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 92 60% 88–97 87–98 85–99 83–101
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 81 83 0.4% 78–87 77–88 76–89 74–91
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 75 0% 71–80 70–81 69–82 67–84
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 66 0% 62–70 60–71 59–72 57–74
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 71 66 0% 62–70 60–71 59–72 57–74
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 41 0% 38–45 37–46 36–47 34–49

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
104 0% 100%  
105 0.1% 99.9%  
106 0.1% 99.9%  
107 0.4% 99.7%  
108 0.6% 99.4%  
109 0.8% 98.7%  
110 2% 98%  
111 3% 96%  
112 3% 93% Last Result
113 7% 90%  
114 9% 83%  
115 9% 74%  
116 12% 66% Median
117 13% 53%  
118 9% 40%  
119 10% 31%  
120 8% 21%  
121 4% 12%  
122 4% 8%  
123 2% 4%  
124 0.9% 2%  
125 0.5% 0.8%  
126 0.2% 0.3%  
127 0.1% 0.1%  
128 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
104 0% 100%  
105 0.1% 99.9%  
106 0.1% 99.9%  
107 0.3% 99.7%  
108 0.6% 99.4%  
109 1.1% 98.9%  
110 2% 98%  
111 3% 96% Last Result
112 4% 93%  
113 6% 89%  
114 8% 83%  
115 10% 75%  
116 11% 65% Median
117 11% 54%  
118 11% 42%  
119 10% 31%  
120 8% 21%  
121 6% 13%  
122 3% 7%  
123 2% 4%  
124 1.1% 2%  
125 0.5% 0.9%  
126 0.2% 0.4%  
127 0.1% 0.1%  
128 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.3% 99.8%  
91 0.5% 99.5%  
92 1.0% 99.0% Majority
93 2% 98%  
94 3% 96%  
95 4% 94%  
96 6% 89%  
97 8% 83% Last Result
98 10% 75%  
99 11% 65% Median
100 12% 54%  
101 11% 42%  
102 10% 31%  
103 8% 22%  
104 6% 14%  
105 4% 8%  
106 2% 5%  
107 1.3% 2%  
108 0.6% 1.1%  
109 0.3% 0.5%  
110 0.1% 0.2%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.3% 99.8%  
91 0.5% 99.5%  
92 1.0% 99.0% Majority
93 2% 98%  
94 3% 96%  
95 4% 94%  
96 6% 89%  
97 8% 83%  
98 10% 75%  
99 11% 65% Median
100 11% 54%  
101 12% 43%  
102 9% 31% Last Result
103 8% 22%  
104 5% 14%  
105 4% 9%  
106 2% 5%  
107 1.4% 2%  
108 0.6% 1.1%  
109 0.3% 0.5%  
110 0.1% 0.2%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.2% 99.9%  
83 0.3% 99.7%  
84 0.7% 99.4%  
85 1.3% 98.6%  
86 2% 97% Last Result
87 4% 95%  
88 5% 92%  
89 7% 86%  
90 9% 79%  
91 11% 70%  
92 12% 60% Median, Majority
93 12% 48%  
94 10% 36%  
95 9% 26%  
96 7% 18%  
97 5% 11%  
98 3% 6%  
99 2% 3%  
100 1.0% 2%  
101 0.4% 0.7%  
102 0.2% 0.3%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.8%  
74 0.5% 99.6%  
75 1.0% 99.1%  
76 2% 98%  
77 3% 96%  
78 5% 93%  
79 6% 89%  
80 9% 82%  
81 10% 74% Last Result
82 12% 64% Median
83 11% 52%  
84 11% 40%  
85 9% 29%  
86 7% 20%  
87 5% 13%  
88 4% 8%  
89 2% 4%  
90 1.1% 2%  
91 0.6% 1.0%  
92 0.3% 0.4% Majority
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.2% 99.8%  
67 0.5% 99.6%  
68 1.1% 99.1%  
69 2% 98%  
70 3% 96%  
71 5% 93% Last Result
72 7% 88%  
73 9% 81%  
74 11% 72%  
75 12% 61% Median
76 12% 49%  
77 11% 37%  
78 9% 26%  
79 6% 18%  
80 5% 11%  
81 3% 6%  
82 2% 3%  
83 0.8% 2%  
84 0.5% 0.8%  
85 0.2% 0.3%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.3% 99.8%  
58 0.7% 99.5%  
59 1.4% 98.8%  
60 3% 97%  
61 4% 95%  
62 6% 90%  
63 9% 84%  
64 11% 76%  
65 12% 65% Median
66 12% 53% Last Result
67 11% 41%  
68 10% 29%  
69 7% 20%  
70 5% 12%  
71 3% 7%  
72 2% 4%  
73 1.1% 2%  
74 0.5% 0.9%  
75 0.2% 0.4%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.4% 99.8%  
58 0.7% 99.4%  
59 1.3% 98.7%  
60 3% 97%  
61 4% 94%  
62 5% 90%  
63 10% 85%  
64 11% 75%  
65 10% 65% Median
66 14% 55%  
67 12% 41%  
68 8% 29%  
69 8% 20%  
70 6% 12%  
71 3% 7% Last Result
72 2% 4%  
73 1.2% 2%  
74 0.4% 0.8%  
75 0.3% 0.4%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.5% 99.8%  
35 1.0% 99.4%  
36 2% 98%  
37 6% 97%  
38 6% 91%  
39 8% 85%  
40 17% 76% Last Result
41 12% 59% Median
42 11% 47%  
43 17% 36%  
44 6% 19%  
45 5% 13%  
46 5% 8%  
47 1.2% 3%  
48 0.9% 2%  
49 0.6% 0.7%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations