Opinion Poll by Unique Research, 2–6 November 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 37.5% | 38.1% | 35.9–40.3% | 35.3–40.9% | 34.8–41.5% | 33.7–42.6% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 21.2% | 21.0% | 19.3–23.0% | 18.8–23.5% | 18.3–24.0% | 17.5–24.9% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 16.2% | 16.0% | 14.5–17.8% | 14.0–18.3% | 13.7–18.7% | 13.0–19.6% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 13.9% | 11.9% | 10.6–13.5% | 10.2–14.0% | 9.9–14.4% | 9.3–15.2% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 8.1% | 10.0% | 8.7–11.4% | 8.4–11.9% | 8.1–12.2% | 7.5–13.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 72 | 68–76 | 66–77 | 65–78 | 63–80 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 40 | 36–43 | 35–44 | 34–45 | 33–47 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 31 | 30 | 27–33 | 26–34 | 25–35 | 24–37 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 26 | 22 | 20–25 | 19–26 | 18–27 | 17–28 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 15 | 19 | 16–21 | 15–22 | 15–23 | 14–24 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 64 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 65 | 1.5% | 98.6% | |
| 66 | 3% | 97% | |
| 67 | 4% | 95% | |
| 68 | 6% | 90% | |
| 69 | 9% | 84% | |
| 70 | 10% | 76% | |
| 71 | 12% | 66% | Last Result |
| 72 | 12% | 54% | Median |
| 73 | 12% | 42% | |
| 74 | 9% | 30% | |
| 75 | 8% | 21% | |
| 76 | 5% | 13% | |
| 77 | 4% | 8% | |
| 78 | 2% | 4% | |
| 79 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 80 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 81 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 34 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 35 | 4% | 97% | |
| 36 | 7% | 93% | |
| 37 | 9% | 86% | |
| 38 | 13% | 77% | |
| 39 | 14% | 64% | |
| 40 | 15% | 50% | Last Result, Median |
| 41 | 12% | 36% | |
| 42 | 9% | 24% | |
| 43 | 7% | 14% | |
| 44 | 4% | 8% | |
| 45 | 2% | 4% | |
| 46 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 47 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 25 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 26 | 4% | 97% | |
| 27 | 8% | 93% | |
| 28 | 11% | 86% | |
| 29 | 15% | 74% | |
| 30 | 16% | 59% | Median |
| 31 | 14% | 43% | Last Result |
| 32 | 12% | 29% | |
| 33 | 8% | 17% | |
| 34 | 5% | 9% | |
| 35 | 2% | 4% | |
| 36 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 37 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 18 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 19 | 6% | 97% | |
| 20 | 11% | 91% | |
| 21 | 16% | 80% | |
| 22 | 18% | 64% | Median |
| 23 | 17% | 47% | |
| 24 | 13% | 29% | |
| 25 | 8% | 16% | |
| 26 | 4% | 8% | Last Result |
| 27 | 2% | 3% | |
| 28 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 29 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 14 | 1.3% | 99.7% | |
| 15 | 4% | 98% | Last Result |
| 16 | 9% | 94% | |
| 17 | 15% | 85% | |
| 18 | 19% | 70% | |
| 19 | 19% | 50% | Median |
| 20 | 14% | 31% | |
| 21 | 9% | 17% | |
| 22 | 5% | 8% | |
| 23 | 2% | 3% | |
| 24 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 112 | 113 | 100% | 108–117 | 107–118 | 106–119 | 103–121 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 111 | 111 | 100% | 107–116 | 106–117 | 104–118 | 102–120 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 102 | 102 | 99.8% | 97–106 | 96–108 | 95–109 | 93–111 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 97 | 94 | 78% | 90–99 | 88–100 | 87–101 | 85–103 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 86 | 90 | 38% | 86–95 | 85–96 | 84–97 | 81–99 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 81 | 80 | 0.1% | 76–85 | 75–86 | 74–87 | 72–89 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 72 | 0% | 68–76 | 66–77 | 65–78 | 63–80 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 71 | 70 | 0% | 65–74 | 64–75 | 63–76 | 61–78 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 66 | 62 | 0% | 58–66 | 57–67 | 56–68 | 54–70 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 40 | 0% | 36–43 | 35–44 | 34–45 | 33–47 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 101 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 103 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 104 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 105 | 1.0% | 98.9% | |
| 106 | 2% | 98% | |
| 107 | 3% | 96% | |
| 108 | 4% | 93% | |
| 109 | 6% | 89% | |
| 110 | 7% | 83% | |
| 111 | 10% | 76% | |
| 112 | 11% | 65% | Last Result |
| 113 | 12% | 54% | Median |
| 114 | 12% | 42% | |
| 115 | 9% | 30% | |
| 116 | 8% | 21% | |
| 117 | 6% | 14% | |
| 118 | 3% | 8% | |
| 119 | 2% | 4% | |
| 120 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 121 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 122 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 0% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 101 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 102 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 103 | 0.7% | 99.2% | |
| 104 | 1.3% | 98.5% | |
| 105 | 2% | 97% | |
| 106 | 3% | 95% | |
| 107 | 5% | 92% | |
| 108 | 7% | 87% | |
| 109 | 9% | 80% | |
| 110 | 10% | 71% | |
| 111 | 12% | 61% | Last Result |
| 112 | 11% | 49% | Median |
| 113 | 11% | 38% | |
| 114 | 9% | 27% | |
| 115 | 7% | 18% | |
| 116 | 5% | 11% | |
| 117 | 3% | 7% | |
| 118 | 2% | 3% | |
| 119 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 120 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 121 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 92 | 0.2% | 99.8% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 94 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 95 | 2% | 98% | |
| 96 | 3% | 97% | |
| 97 | 4% | 94% | |
| 98 | 6% | 90% | |
| 99 | 8% | 84% | |
| 100 | 10% | 76% | |
| 101 | 11% | 67% | |
| 102 | 11% | 56% | Last Result, Median |
| 103 | 12% | 45% | |
| 104 | 10% | 33% | |
| 105 | 8% | 23% | |
| 106 | 6% | 15% | |
| 107 | 4% | 9% | |
| 108 | 2% | 5% | |
| 109 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 110 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 111 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 85 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 86 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 87 | 1.4% | 98.5% | |
| 88 | 2% | 97% | |
| 89 | 4% | 95% | |
| 90 | 5% | 91% | |
| 91 | 7% | 85% | |
| 92 | 9% | 78% | Majority |
| 93 | 11% | 69% | |
| 94 | 12% | 59% | Median |
| 95 | 12% | 47% | |
| 96 | 10% | 35% | |
| 97 | 8% | 25% | Last Result |
| 98 | 6% | 17% | |
| 99 | 5% | 11% | |
| 100 | 3% | 6% | |
| 101 | 2% | 3% | |
| 102 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 103 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 104 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 79 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 81 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 82 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 83 | 1.3% | 98.8% | |
| 84 | 2% | 98% | |
| 85 | 3% | 95% | |
| 86 | 5% | 92% | Last Result |
| 87 | 7% | 87% | |
| 88 | 9% | 80% | |
| 89 | 11% | 71% | |
| 90 | 11% | 61% | |
| 91 | 11% | 49% | Median |
| 92 | 11% | 38% | Majority |
| 93 | 9% | 27% | |
| 94 | 7% | 18% | |
| 95 | 5% | 12% | |
| 96 | 3% | 7% | |
| 97 | 2% | 4% | |
| 98 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 99 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 72 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 73 | 1.1% | 99.0% | |
| 74 | 2% | 98% | |
| 75 | 3% | 96% | |
| 76 | 5% | 93% | |
| 77 | 7% | 88% | |
| 78 | 9% | 81% | |
| 79 | 10% | 72% | |
| 80 | 12% | 62% | |
| 81 | 11% | 50% | Last Result, Median |
| 82 | 11% | 38% | |
| 83 | 9% | 28% | |
| 84 | 7% | 19% | |
| 85 | 5% | 12% | |
| 86 | 3% | 7% | |
| 87 | 2% | 4% | |
| 88 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 89 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 90 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 64 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 65 | 1.5% | 98.6% | |
| 66 | 3% | 97% | |
| 67 | 4% | 95% | |
| 68 | 6% | 90% | |
| 69 | 9% | 84% | |
| 70 | 10% | 76% | |
| 71 | 12% | 66% | Last Result |
| 72 | 12% | 54% | Median |
| 73 | 12% | 42% | |
| 74 | 9% | 30% | |
| 75 | 8% | 21% | |
| 76 | 5% | 13% | |
| 77 | 4% | 8% | |
| 78 | 2% | 4% | |
| 79 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 80 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 81 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 62 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 63 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 64 | 3% | 97% | |
| 65 | 4% | 94% | |
| 66 | 7% | 90% | |
| 67 | 9% | 83% | |
| 68 | 10% | 74% | |
| 69 | 12% | 65% | |
| 70 | 12% | 52% | Median |
| 71 | 11% | 40% | Last Result |
| 72 | 10% | 29% | |
| 73 | 7% | 19% | |
| 74 | 5% | 12% | |
| 75 | 3% | 7% | |
| 76 | 2% | 4% | |
| 77 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 78 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 55 | 1.2% | 99.0% | |
| 56 | 2% | 98% | |
| 57 | 4% | 95% | |
| 58 | 6% | 92% | |
| 59 | 8% | 85% | |
| 60 | 11% | 77% | |
| 61 | 12% | 67% | |
| 62 | 12% | 55% | Median |
| 63 | 12% | 43% | |
| 64 | 10% | 31% | |
| 65 | 8% | 21% | |
| 66 | 5% | 13% | Last Result |
| 67 | 4% | 8% | |
| 68 | 2% | 4% | |
| 69 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 70 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 34 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 35 | 4% | 97% | |
| 36 | 7% | 93% | |
| 37 | 9% | 86% | |
| 38 | 13% | 77% | |
| 39 | 14% | 64% | |
| 40 | 15% | 50% | Last Result, Median |
| 41 | 12% | 36% | |
| 42 | 9% | 24% | |
| 43 | 7% | 14% | |
| 44 | 4% | 8% | |
| 45 | 2% | 4% | |
| 46 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 47 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Unique Research
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 2–6 November 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 804
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.35%