Opinion Poll by Market for Der Standard, 30 November–2 December 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 39.0% 36.8–41.2% 36.2–41.9% 35.7–42.4% 34.6–43.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 23.0% 21.2–25.0% 20.7–25.6% 20.2–26.0% 19.4–27.0%
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 14.0% 12.5–15.7% 12.1–16.2% 11.8–16.6% 11.1–17.4%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 14.0% 12.5–15.7% 12.1–16.2% 11.8–16.6% 11.1–17.4%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 8.0% 6.9–9.4% 6.6–9.8% 6.3–10.1% 5.8–10.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 73 69–77 68–78 67–79 65–82
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 43 39–47 38–48 38–49 36–50
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 26 23–29 22–30 22–31 20–32
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 26 23–29 22–30 22–31 20–32
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 15 13–17 12–18 11–19 10–20

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0.5% 99.6%  
66 1.1% 99.1%  
67 2% 98%  
68 4% 96%  
69 5% 92%  
70 8% 87%  
71 10% 79% Last Result
72 12% 69%  
73 13% 57% Median
74 11% 44%  
75 10% 33%  
76 8% 23%  
77 6% 15%  
78 4% 9%  
79 2% 5%  
80 1.2% 2%  
81 0.7% 1.2%  
82 0.3% 0.5%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.6% 99.7%  
37 1.4% 99.2%  
38 3% 98%  
39 5% 95%  
40 8% 90% Last Result
41 11% 81%  
42 14% 70%  
43 14% 56% Median
44 13% 42%  
45 11% 29%  
46 8% 18%  
47 5% 11%  
48 3% 6%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.7% 1.2%  
51 0.3% 0.5%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.4% 99.9%  
21 2% 99.5%  
22 4% 98%  
23 7% 94%  
24 12% 87%  
25 16% 75%  
26 17% 59% Median
27 16% 42%  
28 12% 27%  
29 7% 14%  
30 4% 7%  
31 2% 3% Last Result
32 0.8% 1.2%  
33 0.3% 0.4%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.4% 99.9%  
21 1.4% 99.5%  
22 4% 98%  
23 8% 94%  
24 12% 87%  
25 16% 74%  
26 17% 59% Last Result, Median
27 15% 42%  
28 12% 26%  
29 7% 15%  
30 4% 7%  
31 2% 3%  
32 0.8% 1.2%  
33 0.3% 0.4%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.5% 99.9%  
11 2% 99.5%  
12 7% 97%  
13 15% 90%  
14 21% 75%  
15 21% 55% Last Result, Median
16 16% 33%  
17 10% 17%  
18 5% 7%  
19 2% 3%  
20 0.6% 0.8%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 111 116 100% 112–120 111–121 110–122 108–124
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 112 114 100% 110–118 109–119 108–120 106–122
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 99 98.9% 95–103 94–105 93–106 91–108
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 102 99 99.0% 95–103 94–105 93–106 91–108
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 88 14% 84–92 82–93 81–94 79–96
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 81 84 1.0% 80–88 78–89 77–90 75–92
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 73 0% 69–77 68–78 67–79 65–82
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 69 0% 65–73 64–74 63–75 61–77
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 71 69 0% 65–73 64–74 63–75 61–77
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 43 0% 39–47 38–48 38–49 36–50

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100%  
106 0.1% 99.9%  
107 0.2% 99.8%  
108 0.6% 99.6%  
109 1.1% 99.0%  
110 2% 98%  
111 4% 96% Last Result
112 6% 92%  
113 8% 87%  
114 10% 79%  
115 11% 69%  
116 12% 58% Median
117 13% 46%  
118 11% 33%  
119 8% 22%  
120 6% 14%  
121 4% 9%  
122 2% 4%  
123 1.2% 2%  
124 0.5% 0.9%  
125 0.2% 0.4%  
126 0.1% 0.1%  
127 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.3% 99.8%  
106 0.6% 99.5%  
107 1.3% 98.9%  
108 2% 98%  
109 4% 95%  
110 6% 91%  
111 8% 86%  
112 11% 78% Last Result
113 11% 67%  
114 12% 56% Median
115 12% 43%  
116 10% 31%  
117 8% 21%  
118 6% 13%  
119 4% 8%  
120 2% 4%  
121 1.1% 2%  
122 0.5% 0.9%  
123 0.2% 0.3%  
124 0.1% 0.1%  
125 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.3% 99.8%  
91 0.6% 99.5%  
92 1.1% 98.9% Majority
93 2% 98%  
94 4% 96%  
95 6% 92%  
96 7% 86%  
97 10% 79% Last Result
98 12% 69%  
99 12% 58% Median
100 11% 46%  
101 11% 34%  
102 8% 24%  
103 7% 16%  
104 4% 9%  
105 3% 5%  
106 1.4% 3%  
107 0.8% 1.3%  
108 0.3% 0.5%  
109 0.1% 0.2%  
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.3% 99.8%  
91 0.6% 99.5%  
92 1.2% 99.0% Majority
93 2% 98%  
94 4% 96%  
95 6% 92%  
96 7% 86%  
97 10% 79%  
98 11% 69%  
99 12% 58% Median
100 12% 46%  
101 10% 34%  
102 8% 24% Last Result
103 6% 16%  
104 4% 9%  
105 3% 5%  
106 1.4% 3%  
107 0.7% 1.3%  
108 0.3% 0.5%  
109 0.1% 0.2%  
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.3% 99.8%  
80 0.7% 99.4%  
81 1.5% 98.7%  
82 3% 97%  
83 4% 95%  
84 6% 91%  
85 8% 84%  
86 10% 76% Last Result
87 11% 66%  
88 12% 55% Median
89 11% 42%  
90 9% 31%  
91 8% 22%  
92 6% 14% Majority
93 4% 8%  
94 2% 4%  
95 1.2% 2%  
96 0.6% 1.0%  
97 0.3% 0.5%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.3% 99.8%  
76 0.7% 99.4%  
77 1.4% 98.7%  
78 3% 97%  
79 4% 95%  
80 6% 91%  
81 8% 84% Last Result
82 10% 76%  
83 12% 66%  
84 12% 54% Median
85 11% 42%  
86 10% 30%  
87 7% 21%  
88 6% 14%  
89 4% 8%  
90 2% 4%  
91 1.2% 2%  
92 0.6% 1.0% Majority
93 0.3% 0.4%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0.5% 99.6%  
66 1.1% 99.1%  
67 2% 98%  
68 4% 96%  
69 5% 92%  
70 8% 87%  
71 10% 79% Last Result
72 12% 69%  
73 13% 57% Median
74 11% 44%  
75 10% 33%  
76 8% 23%  
77 6% 15%  
78 4% 9%  
79 2% 5%  
80 1.2% 2%  
81 0.7% 1.2%  
82 0.3% 0.5%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 0.5% 99.7%  
62 1.1% 99.1%  
63 2% 98%  
64 4% 96%  
65 5% 92%  
66 8% 87% Last Result
67 11% 79%  
68 11% 68%  
69 12% 57% Median
70 12% 44%  
71 10% 32%  
72 8% 22%  
73 6% 14%  
74 4% 8%  
75 2% 5%  
76 1.3% 2%  
77 0.6% 1.1%  
78 0.3% 0.5%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 0.5% 99.7%  
62 1.1% 99.1%  
63 2% 98%  
64 4% 96%  
65 6% 92%  
66 8% 87%  
67 10% 79%  
68 12% 69%  
69 12% 57% Median
70 11% 44%  
71 11% 33% Last Result
72 8% 22%  
73 6% 14%  
74 4% 8%  
75 2% 5%  
76 1.3% 2%  
77 0.6% 1.1%  
78 0.3% 0.5%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.6% 99.7%  
37 1.4% 99.2%  
38 3% 98%  
39 5% 95%  
40 8% 90% Last Result
41 11% 81%  
42 14% 70%  
43 14% 56% Median
44 13% 42%  
45 11% 29%  
46 8% 18%  
47 5% 11%  
48 3% 6%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.7% 1.2%  
51 0.3% 0.5%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations