Opinion Poll by Unique Research for profil, 5 December 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 37.5% | 40.0% | 37.9–42.3% | 37.3–42.9% | 36.7–43.5% | 35.7–44.5% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 21.2% | 20.0% | 18.3–21.9% | 17.8–22.5% | 17.4–22.9% | 16.6–23.9% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 16.2% | 15.0% | 13.5–16.7% | 13.1–17.2% | 12.7–17.6% | 12.0–18.5% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 13.9% | 13.0% | 11.6–14.6% | 11.2–15.1% | 10.9–15.5% | 10.2–16.3% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 8.1% | 10.0% | 8.7–11.4% | 8.4–11.8% | 8.1–12.2% | 7.5–12.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 75 | 71–79 | 70–80 | 69–81 | 67–83 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 37 | 34–41 | 33–42 | 32–43 | 31–44 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 31 | 28 | 25–31 | 24–32 | 23–33 | 22–34 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 26 | 24 | 21–27 | 21–28 | 20–29 | 19–30 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 15 | 18 | 16–21 | 15–22 | 15–22 | 14–24 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 68 | 1.1% | 99.1% | |
| 69 | 2% | 98% | |
| 70 | 4% | 96% | |
| 71 | 6% | 92% | Last Result |
| 72 | 8% | 86% | |
| 73 | 10% | 78% | |
| 74 | 12% | 68% | |
| 75 | 13% | 57% | Median |
| 76 | 12% | 44% | |
| 77 | 10% | 32% | |
| 78 | 8% | 22% | |
| 79 | 6% | 14% | |
| 80 | 4% | 8% | |
| 81 | 2% | 5% | |
| 82 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 83 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 84 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 32 | 1.4% | 98.8% | |
| 33 | 4% | 97% | |
| 34 | 8% | 93% | |
| 35 | 7% | 85% | |
| 36 | 16% | 78% | |
| 37 | 15% | 62% | Median |
| 38 | 12% | 46% | |
| 39 | 15% | 35% | |
| 40 | 7% | 19% | Last Result |
| 41 | 6% | 12% | |
| 42 | 4% | 6% | |
| 43 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 44 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 23 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 24 | 4% | 97% | |
| 25 | 8% | 93% | |
| 26 | 13% | 85% | |
| 27 | 16% | 72% | |
| 28 | 17% | 56% | Median |
| 29 | 15% | 40% | |
| 30 | 11% | 25% | |
| 31 | 7% | 14% | Last Result |
| 32 | 4% | 7% | |
| 33 | 2% | 3% | |
| 34 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 20 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 21 | 7% | 96% | |
| 22 | 11% | 89% | |
| 23 | 16% | 78% | |
| 24 | 18% | 62% | Median |
| 25 | 16% | 44% | |
| 26 | 12% | 28% | Last Result |
| 27 | 8% | 15% | |
| 28 | 4% | 7% | |
| 29 | 2% | 3% | |
| 30 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 31 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 14 | 1.4% | 99.6% | |
| 15 | 5% | 98% | Last Result |
| 16 | 10% | 94% | |
| 17 | 16% | 84% | |
| 18 | 20% | 67% | Median |
| 19 | 19% | 48% | |
| 20 | 14% | 29% | |
| 21 | 8% | 15% | |
| 22 | 4% | 7% | |
| 23 | 2% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 112 | 118 | 100% | 114–122 | 112–123 | 111–124 | 110–126 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 111 | 112 | 100% | 108–117 | 107–118 | 106–119 | 104–121 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 102 | 103 | 100% | 99–107 | 98–108 | 97–109 | 95–111 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 97 | 99 | 99.1% | 95–103 | 94–105 | 93–106 | 91–108 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 86 | 93 | 73% | 89–98 | 88–99 | 87–100 | 85–102 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 81 | 80 | 0% | 76–84 | 75–85 | 74–86 | 72–88 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 75 | 0% | 71–79 | 70–80 | 69–81 | 67–83 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 71 | 65 | 0% | 61–69 | 60–70 | 59–72 | 57–73 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 66 | 62 | 0% | 58–66 | 57–67 | 56–68 | 54–70 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 37 | 0% | 34–41 | 33–42 | 32–43 | 31–44 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 109 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 110 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 111 | 1.4% | 98.8% | |
| 112 | 2% | 97% | Last Result |
| 113 | 4% | 95% | |
| 114 | 6% | 91% | |
| 115 | 9% | 85% | |
| 116 | 11% | 76% | |
| 117 | 13% | 65% | Median |
| 118 | 13% | 53% | |
| 119 | 11% | 40% | |
| 120 | 10% | 29% | |
| 121 | 7% | 19% | |
| 122 | 5% | 11% | |
| 123 | 3% | 6% | |
| 124 | 2% | 3% | |
| 125 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 126 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 102 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 104 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 105 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 106 | 2% | 98% | |
| 107 | 3% | 97% | |
| 108 | 5% | 94% | |
| 109 | 7% | 89% | |
| 110 | 9% | 82% | |
| 111 | 11% | 73% | Last Result |
| 112 | 12% | 61% | Median |
| 113 | 13% | 49% | |
| 114 | 11% | 37% | |
| 115 | 9% | 26% | |
| 116 | 7% | 17% | |
| 117 | 5% | 10% | |
| 118 | 3% | 6% | |
| 119 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 120 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 121 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 94 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 95 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 96 | 1.3% | 98.8% | |
| 97 | 2% | 98% | |
| 98 | 4% | 95% | |
| 99 | 6% | 91% | |
| 100 | 8% | 86% | |
| 101 | 10% | 77% | |
| 102 | 11% | 67% | Last Result |
| 103 | 12% | 56% | Median |
| 104 | 12% | 44% | |
| 105 | 10% | 32% | |
| 106 | 8% | 22% | |
| 107 | 6% | 14% | |
| 108 | 4% | 8% | |
| 109 | 2% | 4% | |
| 110 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 111 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 112 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 89 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 91 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 92 | 0.9% | 99.1% | Majority |
| 93 | 2% | 98% | |
| 94 | 4% | 96% | |
| 95 | 5% | 92% | |
| 96 | 7% | 87% | |
| 97 | 9% | 81% | Last Result |
| 98 | 13% | 71% | |
| 99 | 12% | 59% | Median |
| 100 | 10% | 46% | |
| 101 | 11% | 36% | |
| 102 | 9% | 25% | |
| 103 | 6% | 16% | |
| 104 | 4% | 9% | |
| 105 | 3% | 5% | |
| 106 | 2% | 3% | |
| 107 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 108 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 83 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 85 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 86 | 0.9% | 99.2% | Last Result |
| 87 | 2% | 98% | |
| 88 | 3% | 97% | |
| 89 | 5% | 94% | |
| 90 | 7% | 89% | |
| 91 | 9% | 82% | |
| 92 | 11% | 73% | Majority |
| 93 | 12% | 62% | Median |
| 94 | 12% | 50% | |
| 95 | 11% | 38% | |
| 96 | 9% | 27% | |
| 97 | 7% | 18% | |
| 98 | 5% | 11% | |
| 99 | 3% | 6% | |
| 100 | 2% | 3% | |
| 101 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 102 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 103 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 104 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 72 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 73 | 1.2% | 99.0% | |
| 74 | 2% | 98% | |
| 75 | 4% | 96% | |
| 76 | 6% | 92% | |
| 77 | 8% | 86% | |
| 78 | 10% | 78% | |
| 79 | 12% | 68% | Median |
| 80 | 12% | 56% | |
| 81 | 11% | 44% | Last Result |
| 82 | 10% | 33% | |
| 83 | 8% | 23% | |
| 84 | 6% | 14% | |
| 85 | 4% | 9% | |
| 86 | 2% | 5% | |
| 87 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 88 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 89 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 68 | 1.1% | 99.1% | |
| 69 | 2% | 98% | |
| 70 | 4% | 96% | |
| 71 | 6% | 92% | Last Result |
| 72 | 8% | 86% | |
| 73 | 10% | 78% | |
| 74 | 12% | 68% | |
| 75 | 13% | 57% | Median |
| 76 | 12% | 44% | |
| 77 | 10% | 32% | |
| 78 | 8% | 22% | |
| 79 | 6% | 14% | |
| 80 | 4% | 8% | |
| 81 | 2% | 5% | |
| 82 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 83 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 84 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 58 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 59 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 60 | 3% | 97% | |
| 61 | 5% | 94% | |
| 62 | 7% | 89% | |
| 63 | 10% | 81% | |
| 64 | 11% | 71% | |
| 65 | 13% | 60% | Median |
| 66 | 13% | 47% | |
| 67 | 11% | 35% | |
| 68 | 9% | 24% | |
| 69 | 6% | 15% | |
| 70 | 4% | 9% | |
| 71 | 2% | 5% | Last Result |
| 72 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 73 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 74 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 55 | 1.3% | 99.0% | |
| 56 | 3% | 98% | |
| 57 | 4% | 95% | |
| 58 | 7% | 91% | |
| 59 | 9% | 84% | |
| 60 | 11% | 75% | |
| 61 | 12% | 63% | Median |
| 62 | 13% | 51% | |
| 63 | 11% | 38% | |
| 64 | 9% | 27% | |
| 65 | 7% | 17% | |
| 66 | 5% | 11% | Last Result |
| 67 | 3% | 6% | |
| 68 | 2% | 3% | |
| 69 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 70 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 32 | 1.4% | 98.8% | |
| 33 | 4% | 97% | |
| 34 | 8% | 93% | |
| 35 | 7% | 85% | |
| 36 | 16% | 78% | |
| 37 | 15% | 62% | Median |
| 38 | 12% | 46% | |
| 39 | 15% | 35% | |
| 40 | 7% | 19% | Last Result |
| 41 | 6% | 12% | |
| 42 | 4% | 6% | |
| 43 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 44 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Unique Research
- Commissioner(s): profil
- Fieldwork period: 5 December 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 814
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.85%