Opinion Poll by Peter Hajek for APA and ATV, 8–12 December 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 37.5% | 39.0% | 36.8–41.2% | 36.2–41.9% | 35.7–42.4% | 34.6–43.5% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 21.2% | 22.0% | 20.2–24.0% | 19.7–24.5% | 19.3–25.0% | 18.4–26.0% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 16.2% | 16.0% | 14.4–17.8% | 14.0–18.3% | 13.6–18.7% | 12.9–19.6% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 13.9% | 13.0% | 11.6–14.6% | 11.2–15.1% | 10.8–15.5% | 10.2–16.3% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 8.1% | 9.0% | 7.8–10.4% | 7.5–10.8% | 7.2–11.2% | 6.7–11.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 72 | 68–76 | 67–78 | 66–79 | 64–81 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 41 | 37–44 | 36–45 | 35–46 | 34–48 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 31 | 29 | 26–33 | 26–34 | 25–34 | 24–36 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 26 | 24 | 21–27 | 20–28 | 20–28 | 19–30 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 15 | 16 | 14–19 | 14–20 | 13–20 | 12–22 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 65 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 66 | 2% | 98% | |
| 67 | 3% | 97% | |
| 68 | 5% | 93% | |
| 69 | 8% | 89% | |
| 70 | 9% | 81% | |
| 71 | 11% | 72% | Last Result |
| 72 | 13% | 60% | Median |
| 73 | 12% | 48% | |
| 74 | 11% | 36% | |
| 75 | 8% | 25% | |
| 76 | 7% | 17% | |
| 77 | 4% | 10% | |
| 78 | 3% | 5% | |
| 79 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 80 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 81 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 35 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 36 | 3% | 97% | |
| 37 | 6% | 94% | |
| 38 | 9% | 88% | |
| 39 | 12% | 79% | |
| 40 | 14% | 66% | Last Result |
| 41 | 14% | 52% | Median |
| 42 | 13% | 38% | |
| 43 | 10% | 25% | |
| 44 | 7% | 15% | |
| 45 | 4% | 8% | |
| 46 | 2% | 4% | |
| 47 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 48 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 49 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 1.2% | 99.6% | |
| 25 | 3% | 98% | |
| 26 | 6% | 96% | |
| 27 | 10% | 90% | |
| 28 | 15% | 80% | |
| 29 | 15% | 65% | Median |
| 30 | 16% | 50% | |
| 31 | 14% | 34% | Last Result |
| 32 | 9% | 20% | |
| 33 | 6% | 11% | |
| 34 | 3% | 5% | |
| 35 | 2% | 2% | |
| 36 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 1.4% | 99.5% | |
| 20 | 4% | 98% | |
| 21 | 8% | 94% | |
| 22 | 13% | 86% | |
| 23 | 16% | 73% | |
| 24 | 18% | 57% | Median |
| 25 | 15% | 39% | |
| 26 | 11% | 24% | Last Result |
| 27 | 7% | 13% | |
| 28 | 4% | 6% | |
| 29 | 2% | 2% | |
| 30 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 31 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 12 | 1.1% | 99.8% | |
| 13 | 4% | 98.7% | |
| 14 | 10% | 95% | |
| 15 | 16% | 85% | Last Result |
| 16 | 20% | 69% | Median |
| 17 | 20% | 49% | |
| 18 | 14% | 29% | |
| 19 | 8% | 14% | |
| 20 | 4% | 6% | |
| 21 | 2% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 111 | 113 | 100% | 109–117 | 108–118 | 107–119 | 105–121 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 112 | 113 | 100% | 109–117 | 107–118 | 106–119 | 104–121 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 102 | 102 | 99.9% | 98–106 | 96–107 | 95–108 | 93–110 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 97 | 96 | 93% | 92–100 | 91–102 | 90–103 | 88–105 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 86 | 89 | 21% | 85–93 | 83–94 | 82–95 | 80–97 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 81 | 81 | 0.1% | 77–85 | 76–87 | 75–88 | 73–90 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 72 | 0% | 68–76 | 67–78 | 66–79 | 64–81 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 71 | 70 | 0% | 66–74 | 65–76 | 64–77 | 62–79 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 66 | 65 | 0% | 61–69 | 60–70 | 59–71 | 57–73 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 41 | 0% | 37–44 | 36–45 | 35–46 | 34–48 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 104 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 105 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 106 | 1.2% | 99.0% | |
| 107 | 2% | 98% | |
| 108 | 4% | 96% | |
| 109 | 5% | 92% | |
| 110 | 8% | 87% | |
| 111 | 10% | 78% | Last Result |
| 112 | 11% | 68% | |
| 113 | 12% | 57% | Median |
| 114 | 12% | 45% | |
| 115 | 11% | 33% | |
| 116 | 8% | 22% | |
| 117 | 6% | 14% | |
| 118 | 4% | 8% | |
| 119 | 2% | 4% | |
| 120 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 121 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 122 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 102 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 104 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 105 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 106 | 1.4% | 98.8% | |
| 107 | 2% | 97% | |
| 108 | 4% | 95% | |
| 109 | 6% | 91% | |
| 110 | 8% | 85% | |
| 111 | 11% | 77% | |
| 112 | 11% | 65% | Last Result, Median |
| 113 | 13% | 54% | |
| 114 | 11% | 41% | |
| 115 | 10% | 30% | |
| 116 | 8% | 20% | |
| 117 | 5% | 12% | |
| 118 | 3% | 7% | |
| 119 | 2% | 4% | |
| 120 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 121 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 122 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 91 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 94 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 95 | 1.3% | 98.8% | |
| 96 | 3% | 97% | |
| 97 | 4% | 95% | |
| 98 | 6% | 91% | |
| 99 | 8% | 85% | |
| 100 | 10% | 77% | |
| 101 | 12% | 66% | Median |
| 102 | 12% | 54% | Last Result |
| 103 | 12% | 43% | |
| 104 | 10% | 31% | |
| 105 | 8% | 21% | |
| 106 | 6% | 13% | |
| 107 | 3% | 8% | |
| 108 | 2% | 4% | |
| 109 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 110 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 111 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 87 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 88 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 89 | 1.1% | 99.1% | |
| 90 | 2% | 98% | |
| 91 | 3% | 96% | |
| 92 | 5% | 93% | Majority |
| 93 | 8% | 87% | |
| 94 | 9% | 80% | |
| 95 | 11% | 71% | |
| 96 | 12% | 59% | Median |
| 97 | 12% | 48% | Last Result |
| 98 | 10% | 36% | |
| 99 | 9% | 25% | |
| 100 | 7% | 17% | |
| 101 | 4% | 10% | |
| 102 | 3% | 6% | |
| 103 | 2% | 3% | |
| 104 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 105 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 106 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 78 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 80 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 81 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 82 | 1.4% | 98.7% | |
| 83 | 3% | 97% | |
| 84 | 4% | 95% | |
| 85 | 6% | 91% | |
| 86 | 8% | 84% | Last Result |
| 87 | 10% | 76% | |
| 88 | 11% | 66% | Median |
| 89 | 12% | 54% | |
| 90 | 12% | 42% | |
| 91 | 9% | 30% | |
| 92 | 8% | 21% | Majority |
| 93 | 6% | 14% | |
| 94 | 3% | 8% | |
| 95 | 2% | 4% | |
| 96 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 97 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 98 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 73 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 74 | 1.1% | 99.0% | |
| 75 | 2% | 98% | |
| 76 | 3% | 96% | |
| 77 | 6% | 92% | |
| 78 | 8% | 87% | |
| 79 | 10% | 79% | |
| 80 | 12% | 69% | |
| 81 | 12% | 57% | Last Result, Median |
| 82 | 12% | 46% | |
| 83 | 10% | 34% | |
| 84 | 8% | 23% | |
| 85 | 6% | 15% | |
| 86 | 4% | 9% | |
| 87 | 3% | 5% | |
| 88 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 89 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 90 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 65 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 66 | 2% | 98% | |
| 67 | 3% | 97% | |
| 68 | 5% | 93% | |
| 69 | 8% | 89% | |
| 70 | 9% | 81% | |
| 71 | 11% | 72% | Last Result |
| 72 | 13% | 60% | Median |
| 73 | 12% | 48% | |
| 74 | 11% | 36% | |
| 75 | 8% | 25% | |
| 76 | 7% | 17% | |
| 77 | 4% | 10% | |
| 78 | 3% | 5% | |
| 79 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 80 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 81 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 63 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 64 | 2% | 98% | |
| 65 | 3% | 96% | |
| 66 | 5% | 93% | |
| 67 | 8% | 88% | |
| 68 | 10% | 80% | |
| 69 | 11% | 70% | |
| 70 | 13% | 59% | Median |
| 71 | 11% | 46% | Last Result |
| 72 | 11% | 35% | |
| 73 | 8% | 23% | |
| 74 | 6% | 15% | |
| 75 | 4% | 9% | |
| 76 | 2% | 5% | |
| 77 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 78 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 79 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 57 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 58 | 1.4% | 98.9% | |
| 59 | 3% | 98% | |
| 60 | 4% | 95% | |
| 61 | 7% | 91% | |
| 62 | 9% | 84% | |
| 63 | 11% | 75% | |
| 64 | 12% | 64% | |
| 65 | 13% | 51% | Median |
| 66 | 11% | 39% | Last Result |
| 67 | 9% | 27% | |
| 68 | 7% | 18% | |
| 69 | 5% | 11% | |
| 70 | 3% | 6% | |
| 71 | 2% | 3% | |
| 72 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 73 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 74 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 35 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 36 | 3% | 97% | |
| 37 | 6% | 94% | |
| 38 | 9% | 88% | |
| 39 | 12% | 79% | |
| 40 | 14% | 66% | Last Result |
| 41 | 14% | 52% | Median |
| 42 | 13% | 38% | |
| 43 | 10% | 25% | |
| 44 | 7% | 15% | |
| 45 | 4% | 8% | |
| 46 | 2% | 4% | |
| 47 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 48 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 49 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Peter Hajek
- Commissioner(s): APA and ATV
- Fieldwork period: 8–12 December 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 800
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.55%