Opinion Poll by OGM for KURIER, 15–17 December 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 37.5% | 40.1% | 37.8–42.3% | 37.2–43.0% | 36.7–43.5% | 35.7–44.6% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 21.2% | 23.0% | 21.2–25.1% | 20.7–25.6% | 20.2–26.1% | 19.4–27.1% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 16.2% | 13.0% | 11.6–14.6% | 11.1–15.1% | 10.8–15.5% | 10.2–16.3% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 13.9% | 13.0% | 11.6–14.6% | 11.1–15.1% | 10.8–15.5% | 10.2–16.3% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 8.1% | 8.9% | 7.8–10.4% | 7.4–10.8% | 7.1–11.1% | 6.6–11.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 75 | 71–79 | 70–80 | 69–82 | 67–84 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 43 | 40–47 | 39–48 | 38–49 | 36–50 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 31 | 24 | 21–27 | 21–28 | 20–29 | 19–30 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 26 | 24 | 21–27 | 21–28 | 20–29 | 19–30 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 15 | 16 | 14–19 | 14–20 | 13–20 | 12–22 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 68 | 1.2% | 99.0% | |
| 69 | 2% | 98% | |
| 70 | 4% | 96% | |
| 71 | 6% | 92% | Last Result |
| 72 | 8% | 86% | |
| 73 | 10% | 79% | |
| 74 | 12% | 68% | |
| 75 | 12% | 57% | Median |
| 76 | 12% | 45% | |
| 77 | 10% | 33% | |
| 78 | 8% | 23% | |
| 79 | 6% | 15% | |
| 80 | 4% | 9% | |
| 81 | 2% | 5% | |
| 82 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 83 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 84 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 37 | 1.5% | 99.2% | |
| 38 | 3% | 98% | |
| 39 | 5% | 95% | |
| 40 | 9% | 91% | Last Result |
| 41 | 11% | 81% | |
| 42 | 12% | 70% | |
| 43 | 15% | 59% | Median |
| 44 | 14% | 43% | |
| 45 | 10% | 29% | |
| 46 | 8% | 20% | |
| 47 | 6% | 12% | |
| 48 | 3% | 6% | |
| 49 | 2% | 3% | |
| 50 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 51 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 1.2% | 99.6% | |
| 20 | 3% | 98% | |
| 21 | 7% | 95% | |
| 22 | 12% | 88% | |
| 23 | 16% | 76% | |
| 24 | 17% | 60% | Median |
| 25 | 16% | 43% | |
| 26 | 12% | 27% | |
| 27 | 8% | 15% | |
| 28 | 4% | 7% | |
| 29 | 2% | 3% | |
| 30 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 31 | 0.3% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 1.1% | 99.6% | |
| 20 | 3% | 98% | |
| 21 | 7% | 95% | |
| 22 | 11% | 88% | |
| 23 | 16% | 77% | |
| 24 | 18% | 61% | Median |
| 25 | 15% | 42% | |
| 26 | 12% | 27% | Last Result |
| 27 | 8% | 15% | |
| 28 | 4% | 7% | |
| 29 | 2% | 3% | |
| 30 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 31 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 12 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 13 | 4% | 98.8% | |
| 14 | 9% | 95% | |
| 15 | 16% | 86% | Last Result |
| 16 | 20% | 70% | Median |
| 17 | 20% | 50% | |
| 18 | 15% | 30% | |
| 19 | 9% | 15% | |
| 20 | 4% | 7% | |
| 21 | 2% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 111 | 118 | 100% | 114–122 | 113–123 | 112–124 | 110–126 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 112 | 116 | 100% | 112–120 | 110–121 | 109–122 | 107–124 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 97 | 99 | 99.0% | 95–103 | 94–105 | 93–106 | 91–108 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 102 | 99 | 99.0% | 95–103 | 94–105 | 93–106 | 91–108 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 86 | 92 | 52% | 87–96 | 86–97 | 85–98 | 83–100 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 81 | 84 | 1.0% | 80–88 | 78–89 | 77–90 | 75–92 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 75 | 0% | 71–79 | 70–80 | 69–82 | 67–84 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 66 | 67 | 0% | 63–71 | 62–73 | 61–74 | 59–76 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 71 | 67 | 0% | 63–71 | 62–73 | 61–74 | 59–76 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 43 | 0% | 40–47 | 39–48 | 38–49 | 36–50 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 109 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 110 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 111 | 1.0% | 99.1% | Last Result |
| 112 | 2% | 98% | |
| 113 | 3% | 96% | |
| 114 | 6% | 93% | |
| 115 | 7% | 87% | |
| 116 | 10% | 80% | |
| 117 | 12% | 70% | |
| 118 | 13% | 58% | Median |
| 119 | 11% | 46% | |
| 120 | 11% | 34% | |
| 121 | 8% | 23% | |
| 122 | 6% | 15% | |
| 123 | 4% | 9% | |
| 124 | 2% | 4% | |
| 125 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 126 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 127 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 105 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 107 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 108 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 109 | 1.5% | 98.7% | |
| 110 | 3% | 97% | |
| 111 | 4% | 95% | |
| 112 | 6% | 91% | Last Result |
| 113 | 9% | 85% | |
| 114 | 11% | 76% | |
| 115 | 12% | 66% | Median |
| 116 | 12% | 54% | |
| 117 | 12% | 41% | |
| 118 | 10% | 30% | |
| 119 | 7% | 20% | |
| 120 | 5% | 12% | |
| 121 | 3% | 7% | |
| 122 | 2% | 4% | |
| 123 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 124 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 125 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 90 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 91 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 92 | 1.2% | 99.0% | Majority |
| 93 | 2% | 98% | |
| 94 | 3% | 96% | |
| 95 | 6% | 92% | |
| 96 | 7% | 86% | |
| 97 | 9% | 79% | Last Result |
| 98 | 12% | 70% | |
| 99 | 12% | 58% | Median |
| 100 | 11% | 47% | |
| 101 | 11% | 36% | |
| 102 | 9% | 25% | |
| 103 | 6% | 16% | |
| 104 | 4% | 10% | |
| 105 | 3% | 6% | |
| 106 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 107 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 108 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 90 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 91 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 92 | 1.2% | 99.0% | Majority |
| 93 | 2% | 98% | |
| 94 | 3% | 96% | |
| 95 | 6% | 92% | |
| 96 | 8% | 87% | |
| 97 | 9% | 79% | |
| 98 | 12% | 70% | |
| 99 | 12% | 58% | Median |
| 100 | 11% | 46% | |
| 101 | 10% | 35% | |
| 102 | 8% | 25% | Last Result |
| 103 | 7% | 17% | |
| 104 | 4% | 10% | |
| 105 | 3% | 6% | |
| 106 | 2% | 3% | |
| 107 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 108 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 109 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 81 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 83 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 84 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 85 | 2% | 98% | |
| 86 | 3% | 97% | Last Result |
| 87 | 4% | 94% | |
| 88 | 6% | 89% | |
| 89 | 9% | 83% | |
| 90 | 11% | 74% | |
| 91 | 12% | 63% | Median |
| 92 | 12% | 52% | Majority |
| 93 | 11% | 39% | |
| 94 | 9% | 28% | |
| 95 | 7% | 19% | |
| 96 | 5% | 12% | |
| 97 | 3% | 7% | |
| 98 | 2% | 4% | |
| 99 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 100 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 101 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 76 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 77 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 78 | 3% | 97% | |
| 79 | 4% | 94% | |
| 80 | 7% | 90% | |
| 81 | 8% | 83% | Last Result |
| 82 | 10% | 75% | |
| 83 | 11% | 65% | Median |
| 84 | 12% | 54% | |
| 85 | 12% | 42% | |
| 86 | 9% | 30% | |
| 87 | 8% | 21% | |
| 88 | 5% | 13% | |
| 89 | 3% | 8% | |
| 90 | 2% | 4% | |
| 91 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 92 | 0.6% | 1.0% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 68 | 1.2% | 99.0% | |
| 69 | 2% | 98% | |
| 70 | 4% | 96% | |
| 71 | 6% | 92% | Last Result |
| 72 | 8% | 86% | |
| 73 | 10% | 79% | |
| 74 | 12% | 68% | |
| 75 | 12% | 57% | Median |
| 76 | 12% | 45% | |
| 77 | 10% | 33% | |
| 78 | 8% | 23% | |
| 79 | 6% | 15% | |
| 80 | 4% | 9% | |
| 81 | 2% | 5% | |
| 82 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 83 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 84 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 60 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 61 | 2% | 98% | |
| 62 | 3% | 96% | |
| 63 | 5% | 93% | |
| 64 | 8% | 88% | |
| 65 | 10% | 80% | |
| 66 | 12% | 70% | Last Result |
| 67 | 12% | 59% | Median |
| 68 | 12% | 47% | |
| 69 | 11% | 34% | |
| 70 | 8% | 23% | |
| 71 | 6% | 15% | |
| 72 | 4% | 9% | |
| 73 | 3% | 5% | |
| 74 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 75 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 76 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 60 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 61 | 2% | 98% | |
| 62 | 3% | 96% | |
| 63 | 5% | 93% | |
| 64 | 7% | 88% | |
| 65 | 10% | 80% | |
| 66 | 12% | 70% | |
| 67 | 12% | 59% | Median |
| 68 | 12% | 46% | |
| 69 | 11% | 34% | |
| 70 | 9% | 24% | |
| 71 | 6% | 15% | Last Result |
| 72 | 4% | 9% | |
| 73 | 2% | 5% | |
| 74 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 75 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 76 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 37 | 1.5% | 99.2% | |
| 38 | 3% | 98% | |
| 39 | 5% | 95% | |
| 40 | 9% | 91% | Last Result |
| 41 | 11% | 81% | |
| 42 | 12% | 70% | |
| 43 | 15% | 59% | Median |
| 44 | 14% | 43% | |
| 45 | 10% | 29% | |
| 46 | 8% | 20% | |
| 47 | 6% | 12% | |
| 48 | 3% | 6% | |
| 49 | 2% | 3% | |
| 50 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 51 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: OGM
- Commissioner(s): KURIER
- Fieldwork period: 15–17 December 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 794
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.70%