Opinion Poll by Market for Der Standard, 17–21 December 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 39.1% 36.9–41.3% 36.3–41.9% 35.8–42.5% 34.7–43.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 23.0% 21.2–25.0% 20.7–25.5% 20.2–26.0% 19.4–27.0%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 14.0% 12.5–15.7% 12.1–16.1% 11.8–16.5% 11.1–17.4%
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 13.0% 11.6–14.6% 11.2–15.1% 10.8–15.5% 10.2–16.3%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 9.0% 7.8–10.4% 7.5–10.9% 7.2–11.2% 6.7–11.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 73 69–77 68–78 67–80 65–82
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 43 40–47 38–48 38–49 36–50
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 26 23–29 22–30 22–31 20–32
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 24 21–27 21–28 20–29 19–30
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 17 14–19 14–20 13–21 12–22

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0.5% 99.7%  
66 1.1% 99.2%  
67 2% 98%  
68 3% 96%  
69 5% 93%  
70 8% 88%  
71 10% 80% Last Result
72 11% 70%  
73 12% 59% Median
74 12% 47%  
75 11% 34%  
76 9% 24%  
77 6% 15%  
78 4% 9%  
79 2% 5%  
80 1.3% 3%  
81 0.7% 1.2%  
82 0.3% 0.6%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.6% 99.7%  
37 1.1% 99.1%  
38 3% 98%  
39 5% 95%  
40 9% 90% Last Result
41 12% 81%  
42 14% 69%  
43 16% 55% Median
44 11% 40%  
45 11% 29%  
46 7% 18%  
47 5% 11%  
48 3% 6%  
49 1.4% 3%  
50 0.8% 1.2%  
51 0.2% 0.4%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.5% 99.9%  
21 2% 99.4%  
22 4% 98%  
23 8% 94%  
24 12% 86%  
25 16% 74%  
26 17% 58% Last Result, Median
27 15% 41%  
28 11% 25%  
29 7% 14%  
30 4% 7%  
31 2% 3%  
32 0.7% 1.1%  
33 0.3% 0.4%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.3% 99.9%  
19 1.1% 99.6%  
20 3% 98.5%  
21 7% 95%  
22 12% 88%  
23 17% 77%  
24 17% 60% Median
25 16% 43%  
26 12% 26%  
27 7% 14%  
28 4% 7%  
29 2% 3%  
30 0.8% 1.1%  
31 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.8% 99.9%  
13 3% 99.1%  
14 8% 96%  
15 15% 88% Last Result
16 19% 73%  
17 21% 53% Median
18 16% 33%  
19 9% 17%  
20 5% 7%  
21 2% 3%  
22 0.7% 0.9%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 112 116 100% 112–120 111–121 110–122 108–124
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 111 116 100% 112–120 111–121 110–122 108–124
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 99 99.0% 95–103 94–104 93–106 91–108
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 102 97 96% 93–101 92–103 91–104 89–106
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 90 31% 86–94 84–95 83–96 81–98
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 81 86 4% 82–90 80–91 79–92 77–94
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 73 0% 69–77 68–78 67–80 65–82
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 69 0% 65–73 64–74 63–75 61–77
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 71 67 0% 63–71 62–72 61–73 59–75
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 43 0% 40–47 38–48 38–49 36–50

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100%  
106 0.1% 99.9%  
107 0.3% 99.8%  
108 0.6% 99.5%  
109 1.3% 98.9%  
110 2% 98%  
111 4% 95%  
112 6% 92% Last Result
113 8% 86%  
114 10% 77%  
115 11% 67%  
116 13% 56% Median
117 12% 43%  
118 11% 31%  
119 8% 20%  
120 6% 13%  
121 3% 7%  
122 2% 4%  
123 1.0% 2%  
124 0.5% 0.7%  
125 0.2% 0.3%  
126 0.1% 0.1%  
127 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0.1% 100%  
107 0.2% 99.9%  
108 0.5% 99.6%  
109 1.0% 99.1%  
110 2% 98%  
111 3% 96% Last Result
112 5% 93%  
113 8% 88%  
114 11% 80%  
115 11% 69%  
116 12% 58% Median
117 13% 46%  
118 11% 34%  
119 8% 22%  
120 6% 15%  
121 4% 9%  
122 2% 5%  
123 1.1% 2%  
124 0.5% 1.0%  
125 0.3% 0.4%  
126 0.1% 0.1%  
127 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.3% 99.8%  
91 0.6% 99.6%  
92 1.1% 99.0% Majority
93 2% 98%  
94 4% 96%  
95 5% 92%  
96 7% 87%  
97 9% 80% Last Result
98 11% 71%  
99 13% 59% Median
100 11% 47%  
101 11% 35%  
102 9% 24%  
103 6% 15%  
104 4% 9%  
105 2% 5%  
106 1.3% 3%  
107 0.7% 1.3%  
108 0.3% 0.6%  
109 0.1% 0.2%  
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0.1% 100%  
88 0.2% 99.9%  
89 0.5% 99.6%  
90 1.2% 99.1%  
91 2% 98%  
92 3% 96% Majority
93 5% 93%  
94 7% 88%  
95 9% 81%  
96 11% 71%  
97 12% 61% Median
98 13% 49%  
99 10% 36%  
100 10% 26%  
101 6% 16%  
102 4% 10% Last Result
103 2% 5%  
104 1.5% 3%  
105 0.8% 1.4%  
106 0.4% 0.7%  
107 0.2% 0.3%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.3% 99.8%  
82 0.6% 99.4%  
83 1.5% 98.8%  
84 2% 97%  
85 4% 95%  
86 5% 91% Last Result
87 9% 85%  
88 10% 77%  
89 12% 67%  
90 11% 55% Median
91 12% 43%  
92 10% 31% Majority
93 8% 22%  
94 5% 13%  
95 4% 8%  
96 2% 4%  
97 1.3% 2%  
98 0.5% 1.0%  
99 0.3% 0.5%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.2% 99.9%  
77 0.4% 99.7%  
78 0.8% 99.3%  
79 1.5% 98.6%  
80 3% 97%  
81 4% 95% Last Result
82 6% 90%  
83 10% 84%  
84 10% 74%  
85 13% 64%  
86 12% 51% Median
87 11% 39%  
88 9% 28%  
89 7% 19%  
90 5% 12%  
91 3% 7%  
92 2% 4% Majority
93 1.2% 2%  
94 0.5% 0.9%  
95 0.2% 0.4%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0.5% 99.7%  
66 1.1% 99.2%  
67 2% 98%  
68 3% 96%  
69 5% 93%  
70 8% 88%  
71 10% 80% Last Result
72 11% 70%  
73 12% 59% Median
74 12% 47%  
75 11% 34%  
76 9% 24%  
77 6% 15%  
78 4% 9%  
79 2% 5%  
80 1.3% 3%  
81 0.7% 1.2%  
82 0.3% 0.6%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 0.5% 99.6%  
62 1.0% 99.1%  
63 2% 98%  
64 4% 96%  
65 6% 92%  
66 8% 86% Last Result
67 11% 78%  
68 12% 67%  
69 12% 55% Median
70 11% 43%  
71 11% 32%  
72 7% 20%  
73 5% 13%  
74 4% 8%  
75 2% 4%  
76 1.1% 2%  
77 0.6% 1.0%  
78 0.3% 0.4%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 0.5% 99.7%  
60 1.0% 99.2%  
61 2% 98%  
62 3% 96%  
63 6% 93%  
64 8% 87%  
65 11% 79%  
66 12% 69%  
67 13% 57% Median
68 11% 44%  
69 10% 32%  
70 8% 22%  
71 6% 14% Last Result
72 4% 8%  
73 2% 5%  
74 1.3% 2%  
75 0.6% 1.1%  
76 0.3% 0.5%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.6% 99.7%  
37 1.1% 99.1%  
38 3% 98%  
39 5% 95%  
40 9% 90% Last Result
41 12% 81%  
42 14% 69%  
43 16% 55% Median
44 11% 40%  
45 11% 29%  
46 7% 18%  
47 5% 11%  
48 3% 6%  
49 1.4% 3%  
50 0.8% 1.2%  
51 0.2% 0.4%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations