Opinion Poll by Unique Research for profil, 11–14 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 37.0% 34.8–39.2% 34.2–39.9% 33.7–40.4% 32.7–41.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 22.0% 20.2–24.0% 19.7–24.5% 19.3–25.0% 18.4–26.0%
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 16.0% 14.4–17.8% 14.0–18.3% 13.6–18.7% 12.9–19.6%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 14.0% 12.5–15.7% 12.1–16.2% 11.8–16.6% 11.1–17.4%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 10.0% 8.7–11.5% 8.4–11.9% 8.1–12.3% 7.5–13.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 69 65–73 63–74 62–75 61–77
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 41 37–44 36–45 35–46 34–48
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 29 26–33 26–34 25–34 24–36
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 26 23–29 22–30 21–30 20–32
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 18 16–21 15–22 15–22 14–24

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.3% 99.8%  
61 0.8% 99.5%  
62 1.3% 98.7%  
63 3% 97%  
64 4% 95%  
65 7% 91%  
66 8% 84%  
67 11% 75%  
68 13% 64%  
69 11% 51% Median
70 13% 40%  
71 9% 27% Last Result
72 7% 18%  
73 5% 11%  
74 3% 7%  
75 2% 3%  
76 0.9% 2%  
77 0.5% 0.7%  
78 0.2% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 0.7% 99.7%  
35 2% 99.0%  
36 3% 97%  
37 6% 94%  
38 9% 88%  
39 13% 79%  
40 14% 66% Last Result
41 15% 52% Median
42 12% 37%  
43 10% 25%  
44 7% 15%  
45 4% 8%  
46 2% 4%  
47 1.2% 2%  
48 0.5% 0.8%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.2% 99.9%  
24 2% 99.7%  
25 2% 98%  
26 7% 96%  
27 10% 89%  
28 9% 79%  
29 24% 69% Median
30 7% 45%  
31 20% 38% Last Result
32 6% 18%  
33 6% 12%  
34 4% 6%  
35 0.8% 2%  
36 0.9% 1.1%  
37 0.1% 0.2%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.6% 99.8%  
21 2% 99.3%  
22 4% 97%  
23 9% 93%  
24 13% 84%  
25 17% 71%  
26 17% 54% Last Result, Median
27 15% 37%  
28 11% 23%  
29 6% 12%  
30 3% 6%  
31 1.5% 2%  
32 0.6% 0.9%  
33 0.2% 0.3%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.4% 99.9%  
14 2% 99.6%  
15 5% 98% Last Result
16 11% 93%  
17 17% 82%  
18 20% 66% Median
19 18% 46%  
20 14% 28%  
21 8% 14%  
22 4% 6%  
23 2% 2%  
24 0.5% 0.7%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 112 113 100% 109–117 108–118 106–119 104–121
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 111 109 100% 105–113 104–115 103–116 101–118
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 102 98 98% 94–102 93–104 92–105 90–107
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 94 82% 90–99 89–100 88–101 86–103
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 87 8% 83–91 82–92 81–93 79–95
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 81 85 2% 81–89 79–90 78–91 76–93
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 71 70 0% 66–74 65–75 64–77 62–79
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 69 0% 65–73 63–74 62–75 61–77
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 66 0% 62–71 61–72 60–73 58–75
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 41 0% 37–44 36–45 35–46 34–48

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0% 100%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.3% 99.8%  
105 0.7% 99.5%  
106 1.4% 98.8%  
107 2% 97%  
108 4% 95%  
109 6% 91%  
110 8% 85%  
111 11% 76%  
112 12% 66% Last Result
113 13% 54% Median
114 11% 41%  
115 10% 30%  
116 8% 20%  
117 5% 12%  
118 3% 7%  
119 2% 4%  
120 0.9% 2%  
121 0.4% 0.7%  
122 0.2% 0.3%  
123 0.1% 0.1%  
124 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0.1% 100%  
100 0.2% 99.9%  
101 0.5% 99.7%  
102 1.0% 99.2%  
103 2% 98%  
104 3% 96%  
105 5% 93%  
106 7% 88%  
107 10% 81%  
108 11% 71%  
109 12% 60%  
110 12% 48% Median
111 11% 36% Last Result
112 9% 25%  
113 6% 16%  
114 4% 10%  
115 3% 5%  
116 1.4% 3%  
117 0.8% 1.3%  
118 0.3% 0.5%  
119 0.1% 0.2%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0% 100%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0.3% 99.8%  
90 0.5% 99.6%  
91 1.2% 99.0%  
92 2% 98% Majority
93 3% 96%  
94 6% 92%  
95 7% 87%  
96 10% 79%  
97 12% 69%  
98 11% 57% Median
99 13% 46%  
100 9% 34%  
101 9% 24%  
102 6% 15% Last Result
103 4% 9%  
104 3% 5%  
105 1.3% 3%  
106 0.7% 1.3%  
107 0.3% 0.5%  
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0.2% 99.9%  
86 0.5% 99.7%  
87 1.0% 99.2%  
88 2% 98%  
89 3% 96%  
90 5% 93%  
91 7% 88%  
92 9% 82% Majority
93 11% 72%  
94 13% 62%  
95 11% 49% Median
96 11% 37%  
97 9% 26% Last Result
98 7% 18%  
99 5% 11%  
100 3% 6%  
101 2% 3%  
102 0.8% 2%  
103 0.4% 0.7%  
104 0.2% 0.3%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.3% 99.8%  
79 0.6% 99.5%  
80 1.3% 98.9%  
81 2% 98%  
82 4% 95%  
83 6% 91%  
84 8% 85%  
85 10% 77%  
86 12% 67% Last Result
87 12% 56% Median
88 11% 44%  
89 10% 32%  
90 8% 22%  
91 6% 14%  
92 4% 8% Majority
93 2% 5%  
94 1.3% 2%  
95 0.6% 1.1%  
96 0.3% 0.5%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.3% 99.8%  
77 0.7% 99.5%  
78 1.3% 98.7%  
79 3% 97%  
80 4% 95%  
81 6% 91% Last Result
82 9% 85%  
83 9% 76%  
84 13% 66%  
85 11% 54% Median
86 12% 43%  
87 10% 31%  
88 7% 21%  
89 6% 13%  
90 3% 8%  
91 2% 4%  
92 1.2% 2% Majority
93 0.5% 1.0%  
94 0.3% 0.4%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.4% 99.7%  
63 0.9% 99.3%  
64 2% 98%  
65 3% 96%  
66 5% 93%  
67 8% 88%  
68 10% 80%  
69 11% 70%  
70 13% 59% Median
71 12% 46% Last Result
72 11% 34%  
73 8% 24%  
74 6% 15%  
75 4% 9%  
76 2% 5%  
77 1.4% 3%  
78 0.7% 1.2%  
79 0.3% 0.5%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.3% 99.8%  
61 0.8% 99.5%  
62 1.3% 98.7%  
63 3% 97%  
64 4% 95%  
65 7% 91%  
66 8% 84%  
67 11% 75%  
68 13% 64%  
69 11% 51% Median
70 13% 40%  
71 9% 27% Last Result
72 7% 18%  
73 5% 11%  
74 3% 7%  
75 2% 3%  
76 0.9% 2%  
77 0.5% 0.7%  
78 0.2% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.3% 99.8%  
59 0.7% 99.5%  
60 2% 98.7%  
61 3% 97%  
62 5% 94%  
63 7% 90%  
64 9% 83%  
65 11% 73%  
66 12% 62% Last Result
67 13% 50% Median
68 11% 37%  
69 9% 26%  
70 7% 17%  
71 4% 10%  
72 3% 6%  
73 2% 3%  
74 0.8% 1.4%  
75 0.4% 0.6%  
76 0.2% 0.3%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 0.7% 99.7%  
35 2% 99.0%  
36 3% 97%  
37 6% 94%  
38 9% 88%  
39 13% 79%  
40 14% 66% Last Result
41 15% 52% Median
42 12% 37%  
43 10% 25%  
44 7% 15%  
45 4% 8%  
46 2% 4%  
47 1.2% 2%  
48 0.5% 0.8%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations