Opinion Poll by Unique Research for profil, 8–11 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 36.0% 33.9–38.2% 33.3–38.9% 32.7–39.4% 31.7–40.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 23.0% 21.2–25.0% 20.7–25.6% 20.2–26.0% 19.4–27.0%
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 17.0% 15.4–18.8% 14.9–19.3% 14.6–19.8% 13.8–20.7%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 11.0% 9.7–12.5% 9.3–13.0% 9.0–13.4% 8.4–14.1%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 10.0% 8.7–11.5% 8.4–11.9% 8.1–12.3% 7.5–13.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 68 64–72 63–73 62–74 59–76
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 43 40–47 39–48 38–49 36–51
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 32 29–35 28–36 27–37 26–39
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 21 18–23 17–24 17–25 15–26
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 19 16–21 15–22 15–23 14–24

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.3% 99.8%  
60 0.7% 99.5%  
61 1.3% 98.8%  
62 3% 98%  
63 4% 95%  
64 6% 91%  
65 8% 85%  
66 10% 77%  
67 12% 67%  
68 11% 54% Median
69 11% 43%  
70 10% 32%  
71 9% 22% Last Result
72 5% 13%  
73 4% 8%  
74 2% 5%  
75 1.4% 2%  
76 0.6% 1.1%  
77 0.3% 0.5%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.5% 99.8%  
37 1.2% 99.3%  
38 2% 98%  
39 4% 96%  
40 7% 91% Last Result
41 10% 84%  
42 13% 73%  
43 14% 61% Median
44 14% 47%  
45 11% 33%  
46 9% 22%  
47 6% 13%  
48 4% 7%  
49 2% 4%  
50 1.0% 2%  
51 0.4% 0.7%  
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.3% 99.9%  
26 0.9% 99.6%  
27 2% 98.7%  
28 5% 96%  
29 9% 91%  
30 12% 83%  
31 15% 71% Last Result
32 15% 56% Median
33 14% 40%  
34 11% 26%  
35 7% 16%  
36 4% 8%  
37 2% 4%  
38 1.1% 2%  
39 0.4% 0.6%  
40 0.2% 0.2%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.4% 99.9% Last Result
16 2% 99.5%  
17 4% 98%  
18 10% 93%  
19 15% 83%  
20 18% 69%  
21 18% 50% Median
22 14% 32%  
23 10% 18%  
24 5% 9%  
25 2% 4%  
26 0.9% 1.3%  
27 0.3% 0.4%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 1.2% 99.7%  
15 4% 98.6%  
16 9% 95%  
17 15% 86%  
18 19% 71%  
19 19% 52% Median
20 15% 33%  
21 10% 18%  
22 5% 9%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.8% 1.2%  
25 0.3% 0.4%  
26 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 111 111 100% 107–116 105–117 104–118 102–120
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 112 107 100% 103–112 101–113 100–114 98–116
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 102 100 99.0% 95–104 94–106 93–106 91–109
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 89 19% 84–93 83–94 82–95 79–97
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 87 8% 82–91 81–92 80–93 78–95
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 81 83 0.4% 78–87 77–88 76–89 74–91
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 71 75 0% 71–80 70–81 69–82 67–84
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 68 0% 64–72 63–73 62–74 59–76
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 62 0% 58–66 57–67 56–68 54–70
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 43 0% 40–47 39–48 38–49 36–51

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0.1% 100%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.2% 99.8%  
102 0.5% 99.6%  
103 0.8% 99.1%  
104 1.5% 98%  
105 2% 97%  
106 4% 95%  
107 5% 91%  
108 7% 86%  
109 9% 79%  
110 11% 70%  
111 12% 59% Last Result, Median
112 10% 47%  
113 11% 37%  
114 9% 26%  
115 7% 17%  
116 5% 10%  
117 3% 6%  
118 1.5% 3%  
119 0.9% 2%  
120 0.4% 0.7%  
121 0.2% 0.2%  
122 0.1% 0.1%  
123 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0.1% 100%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.3% 99.8%  
98 0.5% 99.6%  
99 0.7% 99.1%  
100 1.5% 98%  
101 3% 97%  
102 3% 94%  
103 6% 91%  
104 7% 85%  
105 9% 78%  
106 11% 69%  
107 12% 58%  
108 10% 46% Median
109 11% 36%  
110 10% 25%  
111 5% 16%  
112 5% 11% Last Result
113 3% 6%  
114 2% 3%  
115 0.8% 1.5%  
116 0.4% 0.7%  
117 0.1% 0.2%  
118 0.1% 0.1%  
119 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.3% 99.8%  
91 0.5% 99.5%  
92 1.0% 99.0% Majority
93 2% 98%  
94 3% 96%  
95 4% 93%  
96 6% 89%  
97 8% 83%  
98 9% 74%  
99 12% 66%  
100 11% 54% Median
101 11% 43%  
102 10% 33% Last Result
103 8% 22%  
104 6% 15%  
105 4% 9%  
106 3% 5%  
107 1.3% 2%  
108 0.7% 1.2%  
109 0.3% 0.5%  
110 0.1% 0.2%  
111 0.1% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.3% 99.8%  
80 0.6% 99.5%  
81 1.2% 98.8%  
82 2% 98%  
83 3% 96%  
84 5% 92%  
85 7% 87%  
86 9% 81% Last Result
87 11% 72%  
88 11% 61%  
89 12% 51% Median
90 10% 39%  
91 9% 28%  
92 7% 19% Majority
93 5% 12%  
94 3% 7%  
95 2% 4%  
96 1.0% 2%  
97 0.6% 1.0%  
98 0.2% 0.4%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.3% 99.8%  
78 0.6% 99.5%  
79 1.1% 98.9%  
80 2% 98%  
81 3% 96%  
82 5% 93%  
83 6% 88%  
84 9% 82%  
85 10% 73%  
86 12% 63%  
87 12% 51% Median
88 11% 40%  
89 9% 29%  
90 7% 20%  
91 5% 13%  
92 3% 8% Majority
93 2% 4%  
94 1.2% 2%  
95 0.6% 1.0%  
96 0.3% 0.4%  
97 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.3% 99.8%  
74 0.5% 99.5%  
75 1.0% 99.0%  
76 2% 98%  
77 3% 96%  
78 4% 93%  
79 7% 89%  
80 9% 81%  
81 11% 73% Last Result
82 12% 62%  
83 11% 50% Median
84 11% 39%  
85 8% 28%  
86 8% 20%  
87 5% 12%  
88 3% 7%  
89 2% 4%  
90 1.1% 2%  
91 0.6% 1.0%  
92 0.2% 0.4% Majority
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.3% 99.8%  
67 0.6% 99.5%  
68 1.2% 98.9%  
69 2% 98%  
70 4% 96%  
71 5% 92% Last Result
72 6% 86%  
73 10% 80%  
74 11% 69%  
75 11% 58% Median
76 12% 47%  
77 11% 35%  
78 8% 25%  
79 6% 17%  
80 5% 10%  
81 2% 6%  
82 2% 3%  
83 0.9% 2%  
84 0.4% 0.7%  
85 0.2% 0.3%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.3% 99.8%  
60 0.7% 99.5%  
61 1.3% 98.8%  
62 3% 98%  
63 4% 95%  
64 6% 91%  
65 8% 85%  
66 10% 77%  
67 12% 67%  
68 11% 54% Median
69 11% 43%  
70 10% 32%  
71 9% 22% Last Result
72 5% 13%  
73 4% 8%  
74 2% 5%  
75 1.4% 2%  
76 0.6% 1.1%  
77 0.3% 0.5%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.2% 99.8%  
54 0.5% 99.6%  
55 1.1% 99.0%  
56 2% 98%  
57 4% 96%  
58 6% 92%  
59 8% 86%  
60 11% 78%  
61 12% 68%  
62 13% 55% Median
63 11% 42%  
64 10% 31%  
65 8% 21%  
66 6% 14% Last Result
67 4% 8%  
68 2% 4%  
69 1.2% 2%  
70 0.6% 1.1%  
71 0.3% 0.4%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.5% 99.8%  
37 1.2% 99.3%  
38 2% 98%  
39 4% 96%  
40 7% 91% Last Result
41 10% 84%  
42 13% 73%  
43 14% 61% Median
44 14% 47%  
45 11% 33%  
46 9% 22%  
47 6% 13%  
48 4% 7%  
49 2% 4%  
50 1.0% 2%  
51 0.4% 0.7%  
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations