Opinion Poll by Market for Der Standard, 15–17 February 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 37.5% | 37.0% | 35.1–39.0% | 34.5–39.6% | 34.0–40.0% | 33.2–41.0% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 21.2% | 25.0% | 23.3–26.8% | 22.8–27.3% | 22.4–27.8% | 21.6–28.7% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 16.2% | 14.0% | 12.7–15.5% | 12.3–15.9% | 12.0–16.3% | 11.4–17.0% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 13.9% | 12.0% | 10.8–13.4% | 10.4–13.8% | 10.1–14.2% | 9.6–14.9% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 8.1% | 10.0% | 8.9–11.3% | 8.6–11.7% | 8.3–12.0% | 7.8–12.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 69 | 66–73 | 65–74 | 64–75 | 62–77 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 47 | 43–50 | 43–51 | 42–52 | 40–54 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 31 | 26 | 23–29 | 23–30 | 22–30 | 21–32 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 26 | 22 | 20–25 | 19–26 | 19–26 | 18–28 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 15 | 18 | 16–21 | 16–22 | 15–22 | 14–23 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 63 | 1.2% | 99.2% | |
| 64 | 2% | 98% | |
| 65 | 4% | 96% | |
| 66 | 7% | 91% | |
| 67 | 10% | 84% | |
| 68 | 12% | 74% | |
| 69 | 14% | 62% | Median |
| 70 | 13% | 48% | |
| 71 | 11% | 34% | Last Result |
| 72 | 9% | 23% | |
| 73 | 6% | 14% | |
| 74 | 4% | 8% | |
| 75 | 2% | 4% | |
| 76 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 77 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.4% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 41 | 1.3% | 99.4% | |
| 42 | 3% | 98% | |
| 43 | 5% | 95% | |
| 44 | 9% | 90% | |
| 45 | 12% | 81% | |
| 46 | 16% | 69% | |
| 47 | 14% | 53% | Median |
| 48 | 14% | 39% | |
| 49 | 10% | 25% | |
| 50 | 7% | 15% | |
| 51 | 4% | 8% | |
| 52 | 2% | 4% | |
| 53 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 54 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 22 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 23 | 7% | 96% | |
| 24 | 12% | 89% | |
| 25 | 17% | 77% | |
| 26 | 19% | 60% | Median |
| 27 | 17% | 41% | |
| 28 | 12% | 24% | |
| 29 | 7% | 12% | |
| 30 | 3% | 5% | |
| 31 | 1.4% | 2% | Last Result |
| 32 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 19 | 5% | 98% | |
| 20 | 11% | 93% | |
| 21 | 17% | 82% | |
| 22 | 20% | 65% | Median |
| 23 | 19% | 45% | |
| 24 | 13% | 26% | |
| 25 | 8% | 13% | |
| 26 | 3% | 5% | Last Result |
| 27 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 28 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 15 | 3% | 99.1% | Last Result |
| 16 | 9% | 96% | |
| 17 | 16% | 87% | |
| 18 | 22% | 71% | Median |
| 19 | 21% | 49% | |
| 20 | 15% | 28% | |
| 21 | 8% | 13% | |
| 22 | 3% | 5% | |
| 23 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 111 | 116 | 100% | 113–120 | 111–121 | 110–122 | 109–124 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 112 | 110 | 100% | 106–114 | 105–115 | 104–116 | 103–118 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 102 | 95 | 91% | 92–99 | 91–100 | 90–101 | 88–103 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 97 | 92 | 52% | 88–95 | 87–97 | 86–97 | 84–99 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 86 | 88 | 11% | 84–92 | 83–93 | 82–94 | 80–96 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 81 | 88 | 9% | 84–91 | 83–92 | 82–93 | 80–95 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 71 | 73 | 0% | 69–77 | 68–78 | 67–79 | 65–80 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 69 | 0% | 66–73 | 65–74 | 64–75 | 62–77 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 66 | 69 | 0% | 65–73 | 64–74 | 63–75 | 62–77 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 47 | 0% | 43–50 | 43–51 | 42–52 | 40–54 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 108 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 109 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 110 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 111 | 3% | 97% | Last Result |
| 112 | 4% | 94% | |
| 113 | 6% | 90% | |
| 114 | 12% | 84% | |
| 115 | 16% | 73% | |
| 116 | 14% | 57% | Median |
| 117 | 9% | 43% | |
| 118 | 10% | 33% | |
| 119 | 11% | 23% | |
| 120 | 7% | 12% | |
| 121 | 3% | 5% | |
| 122 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 123 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 124 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 101 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 103 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 104 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 105 | 3% | 97% | |
| 106 | 5% | 95% | |
| 107 | 8% | 90% | |
| 108 | 10% | 82% | |
| 109 | 12% | 72% | Median |
| 110 | 14% | 60% | |
| 111 | 13% | 46% | |
| 112 | 11% | 32% | Last Result |
| 113 | 9% | 21% | |
| 114 | 6% | 13% | |
| 115 | 3% | 7% | |
| 116 | 2% | 3% | |
| 117 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 118 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 88 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 89 | 1.3% | 99.0% | |
| 90 | 2% | 98% | |
| 91 | 4% | 95% | |
| 92 | 7% | 91% | Majority |
| 93 | 10% | 84% | |
| 94 | 12% | 74% | |
| 95 | 13% | 62% | Median |
| 96 | 14% | 49% | |
| 97 | 11% | 36% | |
| 98 | 9% | 24% | |
| 99 | 7% | 15% | |
| 100 | 4% | 8% | |
| 101 | 2% | 4% | |
| 102 | 1.2% | 2% | Last Result |
| 103 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 104 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 82 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 84 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 85 | 1.1% | 99.2% | |
| 86 | 2% | 98% | |
| 87 | 4% | 96% | |
| 88 | 6% | 92% | |
| 89 | 9% | 86% | |
| 90 | 12% | 77% | |
| 91 | 13% | 65% | Median |
| 92 | 13% | 52% | Majority |
| 93 | 12% | 39% | |
| 94 | 10% | 27% | |
| 95 | 7% | 17% | |
| 96 | 5% | 10% | |
| 97 | 3% | 5% | Last Result |
| 98 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 99 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 100 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 78 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 80 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 81 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 82 | 2% | 98% | |
| 83 | 3% | 97% | |
| 84 | 6% | 93% | |
| 85 | 9% | 87% | |
| 86 | 11% | 79% | Last Result |
| 87 | 13% | 68% | Median |
| 88 | 14% | 55% | |
| 89 | 13% | 42% | |
| 90 | 10% | 29% | |
| 91 | 8% | 19% | |
| 92 | 5% | 11% | Majority |
| 93 | 3% | 6% | |
| 94 | 2% | 3% | |
| 95 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 96 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 78 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 80 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 81 | 1.2% | 99.2% | Last Result |
| 82 | 2% | 98% | |
| 83 | 4% | 96% | |
| 84 | 7% | 92% | |
| 85 | 9% | 85% | |
| 86 | 11% | 76% | |
| 87 | 14% | 64% | Median |
| 88 | 13% | 51% | |
| 89 | 12% | 38% | |
| 90 | 10% | 26% | |
| 91 | 7% | 16% | |
| 92 | 4% | 9% | Majority |
| 93 | 2% | 5% | |
| 94 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 95 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 96 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 66 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 67 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 68 | 3% | 97% | |
| 69 | 6% | 93% | |
| 70 | 9% | 87% | |
| 71 | 11% | 79% | Last Result |
| 72 | 13% | 68% | |
| 73 | 14% | 54% | Median |
| 74 | 12% | 40% | |
| 75 | 10% | 28% | |
| 76 | 8% | 18% | |
| 77 | 5% | 10% | |
| 78 | 3% | 5% | |
| 79 | 2% | 3% | |
| 80 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 81 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 63 | 1.2% | 99.2% | |
| 64 | 2% | 98% | |
| 65 | 4% | 96% | |
| 66 | 7% | 91% | |
| 67 | 10% | 84% | |
| 68 | 12% | 74% | |
| 69 | 14% | 62% | Median |
| 70 | 13% | 48% | |
| 71 | 11% | 34% | Last Result |
| 72 | 9% | 23% | |
| 73 | 6% | 14% | |
| 74 | 4% | 8% | |
| 75 | 2% | 4% | |
| 76 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 77 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 63 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 64 | 3% | 97% | |
| 65 | 5% | 95% | |
| 66 | 8% | 89% | Last Result |
| 67 | 11% | 81% | |
| 68 | 13% | 71% | |
| 69 | 14% | 58% | Median |
| 70 | 13% | 44% | |
| 71 | 11% | 31% | |
| 72 | 8% | 20% | |
| 73 | 5% | 12% | |
| 74 | 3% | 6% | |
| 75 | 2% | 3% | |
| 76 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 77 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.4% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 41 | 1.3% | 99.4% | |
| 42 | 3% | 98% | |
| 43 | 5% | 95% | |
| 44 | 9% | 90% | |
| 45 | 12% | 81% | |
| 46 | 16% | 69% | |
| 47 | 14% | 53% | Median |
| 48 | 14% | 39% | |
| 49 | 10% | 25% | |
| 50 | 7% | 15% | |
| 51 | 4% | 8% | |
| 52 | 2% | 4% | |
| 53 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 54 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Market
- Commissioner(s): Der Standard
- Fieldwork period: 15–17 February 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.27%