Opinion Poll by Peter Hajek for APA and ATV, 8–11 March 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 37.5% | 35.0% | 32.9–37.2% | 32.3–37.8% | 31.8–38.4% | 30.8–39.4% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 21.2% | 25.0% | 23.1–27.0% | 22.6–27.6% | 22.1–28.1% | 21.2–29.1% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 16.2% | 17.0% | 15.4–18.8% | 14.9–19.3% | 14.6–19.8% | 13.8–20.7% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 8.1% | 11.0% | 9.7–12.5% | 9.3–13.0% | 9.0–13.4% | 8.4–14.1% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 13.9% | 10.0% | 8.7–11.5% | 8.4–11.9% | 8.1–12.3% | 7.5–13.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 66 | 62–70 | 60–71 | 59–72 | 57–74 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 47 | 43–50 | 42–52 | 41–53 | 40–54 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 31 | 32 | 29–35 | 28–36 | 27–37 | 26–39 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 15 | 20 | 18–23 | 17–24 | 17–25 | 15–26 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 26 | 18 | 16–21 | 15–22 | 15–23 | 14–24 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 58 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 59 | 1.4% | 98.8% | |
| 60 | 3% | 97% | |
| 61 | 4% | 94% | |
| 62 | 7% | 90% | |
| 63 | 10% | 84% | |
| 64 | 10% | 73% | |
| 65 | 12% | 63% | |
| 66 | 13% | 51% | Median |
| 67 | 10% | 38% | |
| 68 | 10% | 28% | |
| 69 | 8% | 18% | |
| 70 | 4% | 10% | |
| 71 | 3% | 6% | Last Result |
| 72 | 2% | 3% | |
| 73 | 0.7% | 1.5% | |
| 74 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 75 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 0.8% | 99.5% | Last Result |
| 41 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 42 | 4% | 97% | |
| 43 | 6% | 93% | |
| 44 | 9% | 87% | |
| 45 | 11% | 78% | |
| 46 | 13% | 67% | |
| 47 | 14% | 53% | Median |
| 48 | 12% | 39% | |
| 49 | 10% | 27% | |
| 50 | 7% | 17% | |
| 51 | 5% | 10% | |
| 52 | 3% | 5% | |
| 53 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 54 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 55 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 1.2% | 99.5% | |
| 27 | 3% | 98% | |
| 28 | 5% | 96% | |
| 29 | 9% | 91% | |
| 30 | 15% | 82% | |
| 31 | 16% | 67% | Last Result |
| 32 | 14% | 51% | Median |
| 33 | 12% | 37% | |
| 34 | 10% | 24% | |
| 35 | 7% | 14% | |
| 36 | 4% | 6% | |
| 37 | 2% | 3% | |
| 38 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 39 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.5% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 16 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 17 | 5% | 98% | |
| 18 | 11% | 92% | |
| 19 | 16% | 82% | |
| 20 | 18% | 66% | Median |
| 21 | 18% | 48% | |
| 22 | 14% | 30% | |
| 23 | 9% | 16% | |
| 24 | 4% | 7% | |
| 25 | 2% | 3% | |
| 26 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 14 | 1.3% | 99.7% | |
| 15 | 4% | 98% | |
| 16 | 9% | 94% | |
| 17 | 16% | 85% | |
| 18 | 19% | 69% | Median |
| 19 | 19% | 49% | |
| 20 | 14% | 31% | |
| 21 | 9% | 16% | |
| 22 | 5% | 8% | |
| 23 | 2% | 3% | |
| 24 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 111 | 112 | 100% | 108–117 | 107–118 | 106–119 | 104–120 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 112 | 105 | 100% | 100–109 | 99–110 | 98–111 | 96–113 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 102 | 97 | 96% | 93–102 | 92–103 | 91–104 | 89–106 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 86 | 86 | 5% | 82–90 | 81–91 | 80–92 | 78–95 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 81 | 86 | 4% | 81–90 | 80–91 | 79–92 | 77–94 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 97 | 84 | 1.3% | 80–88 | 79–90 | 78–91 | 76–93 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 71 | 78 | 0% | 74–83 | 73–84 | 72–85 | 70–87 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 66 | 65 | 0% | 61–69 | 60–71 | 59–72 | 57–74 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 66 | 0% | 62–70 | 60–71 | 59–72 | 57–74 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 47 | 0% | 43–50 | 42–52 | 41–53 | 40–54 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 102 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 104 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 105 | 1.0% | 99.2% | |
| 106 | 2% | 98% | |
| 107 | 3% | 96% | |
| 108 | 5% | 93% | |
| 109 | 7% | 88% | |
| 110 | 10% | 81% | |
| 111 | 11% | 71% | Last Result |
| 112 | 11% | 60% | |
| 113 | 12% | 49% | Median |
| 114 | 11% | 36% | |
| 115 | 9% | 26% | |
| 116 | 7% | 17% | |
| 117 | 5% | 10% | |
| 118 | 3% | 5% | |
| 119 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 120 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 121 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 94 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 96 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 97 | 0.9% | 99.2% | |
| 98 | 2% | 98% | |
| 99 | 3% | 97% | |
| 100 | 5% | 94% | |
| 101 | 7% | 89% | |
| 102 | 8% | 82% | |
| 103 | 11% | 74% | |
| 104 | 12% | 63% | Median |
| 105 | 12% | 50% | |
| 106 | 11% | 38% | |
| 107 | 9% | 28% | |
| 108 | 7% | 18% | |
| 109 | 5% | 11% | |
| 110 | 3% | 7% | |
| 111 | 2% | 3% | |
| 112 | 0.9% | 2% | Last Result |
| 113 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 114 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 88 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 89 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 90 | 1.1% | 99.0% | |
| 91 | 2% | 98% | |
| 92 | 3% | 96% | Majority |
| 93 | 5% | 93% | |
| 94 | 7% | 87% | |
| 95 | 9% | 80% | |
| 96 | 11% | 71% | |
| 97 | 12% | 59% | |
| 98 | 12% | 47% | Median |
| 99 | 11% | 36% | |
| 100 | 9% | 25% | |
| 101 | 6% | 16% | |
| 102 | 4% | 10% | Last Result |
| 103 | 3% | 6% | |
| 104 | 2% | 3% | |
| 105 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 106 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 107 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 77 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 78 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 79 | 1.3% | 98.9% | |
| 80 | 2% | 98% | |
| 81 | 4% | 95% | |
| 82 | 6% | 91% | |
| 83 | 9% | 85% | |
| 84 | 9% | 77% | |
| 85 | 12% | 68% | |
| 86 | 12% | 56% | Last Result, Median |
| 87 | 11% | 44% | |
| 88 | 11% | 33% | |
| 89 | 8% | 22% | |
| 90 | 6% | 14% | |
| 91 | 4% | 8% | |
| 92 | 2% | 5% | Majority |
| 93 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 94 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 95 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 77 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 78 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 79 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 80 | 3% | 97% | |
| 81 | 4% | 94% | Last Result |
| 82 | 6% | 90% | |
| 83 | 9% | 83% | |
| 84 | 11% | 75% | |
| 85 | 12% | 64% | Median |
| 86 | 12% | 53% | |
| 87 | 11% | 41% | |
| 88 | 9% | 29% | |
| 89 | 7% | 20% | |
| 90 | 5% | 13% | |
| 91 | 3% | 7% | |
| 92 | 2% | 4% | Majority |
| 93 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 94 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 95 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 76 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 77 | 1.2% | 99.0% | |
| 78 | 2% | 98% | |
| 79 | 4% | 95% | |
| 80 | 6% | 92% | |
| 81 | 7% | 86% | |
| 82 | 10% | 79% | |
| 83 | 12% | 69% | |
| 84 | 12% | 57% | Median |
| 85 | 12% | 45% | |
| 86 | 10% | 33% | |
| 87 | 7% | 23% | |
| 88 | 6% | 16% | |
| 89 | 4% | 9% | |
| 90 | 2% | 5% | |
| 91 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 92 | 0.7% | 1.3% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 94 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 70 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 71 | 0.9% | 99.3% | Last Result |
| 72 | 2% | 98% | |
| 73 | 3% | 97% | |
| 74 | 5% | 93% | |
| 75 | 7% | 89% | |
| 76 | 9% | 82% | |
| 77 | 11% | 72% | |
| 78 | 12% | 62% | |
| 79 | 12% | 50% | Median |
| 80 | 11% | 37% | |
| 81 | 8% | 26% | |
| 82 | 7% | 18% | |
| 83 | 5% | 11% | |
| 84 | 3% | 6% | |
| 85 | 2% | 3% | |
| 86 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 87 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 88 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 58 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 59 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 60 | 3% | 97% | |
| 61 | 5% | 94% | |
| 62 | 7% | 89% | |
| 63 | 10% | 81% | |
| 64 | 11% | 71% | |
| 65 | 12% | 60% | Median |
| 66 | 13% | 48% | Last Result |
| 67 | 11% | 35% | |
| 68 | 9% | 24% | |
| 69 | 6% | 16% | |
| 70 | 4% | 9% | |
| 71 | 2% | 5% | |
| 72 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 73 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 74 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 58 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 59 | 1.4% | 98.8% | |
| 60 | 3% | 97% | |
| 61 | 4% | 94% | |
| 62 | 7% | 90% | |
| 63 | 10% | 84% | |
| 64 | 10% | 73% | |
| 65 | 12% | 63% | |
| 66 | 13% | 51% | Median |
| 67 | 10% | 38% | |
| 68 | 10% | 28% | |
| 69 | 8% | 18% | |
| 70 | 4% | 10% | |
| 71 | 3% | 6% | Last Result |
| 72 | 2% | 3% | |
| 73 | 0.7% | 1.5% | |
| 74 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 75 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 0.8% | 99.5% | Last Result |
| 41 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 42 | 4% | 97% | |
| 43 | 6% | 93% | |
| 44 | 9% | 87% | |
| 45 | 11% | 78% | |
| 46 | 13% | 67% | |
| 47 | 14% | 53% | Median |
| 48 | 12% | 39% | |
| 49 | 10% | 27% | |
| 50 | 7% | 17% | |
| 51 | 5% | 10% | |
| 52 | 3% | 5% | |
| 53 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 54 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 55 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Peter Hajek
- Commissioner(s): APA and ATV
- Fieldwork period: 8–11 March 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 800
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.69%