Opinion Poll by Market for Der Standard, 26–30 March 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 37.5% | 36.0% | 33.9–38.2% | 33.3–38.9% | 32.7–39.4% | 31.7–40.5% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 21.2% | 26.0% | 24.1–28.1% | 23.5–28.7% | 23.1–29.2% | 22.2–30.2% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 16.2% | 15.0% | 13.5–16.7% | 13.0–17.2% | 12.7–17.6% | 12.0–18.5% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 13.9% | 12.0% | 10.6–13.6% | 10.2–14.1% | 9.9–14.4% | 9.3–15.2% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 8.1% | 10.0% | 8.7–11.5% | 8.4–11.9% | 8.1–12.3% | 7.5–13.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 67 | 63–71 | 62–72 | 61–73 | 59–75 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 48 | 44–52 | 43–53 | 43–54 | 41–56 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 31 | 28 | 25–31 | 24–32 | 23–32 | 22–34 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 26 | 22 | 19–25 | 19–26 | 18–26 | 17–28 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 15 | 18 | 16–21 | 15–22 | 15–22 | 14–24 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 60 | 1.2% | 99.0% | |
| 61 | 2% | 98% | |
| 62 | 4% | 95% | |
| 63 | 7% | 92% | |
| 64 | 8% | 85% | |
| 65 | 11% | 76% | |
| 66 | 12% | 66% | |
| 67 | 13% | 54% | Median |
| 68 | 12% | 41% | |
| 69 | 9% | 29% | |
| 70 | 7% | 19% | |
| 71 | 5% | 12% | Last Result |
| 72 | 3% | 7% | |
| 73 | 2% | 4% | |
| 74 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 75 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 76 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 41 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 42 | 1.3% | 99.0% | |
| 43 | 3% | 98% | |
| 44 | 5% | 95% | |
| 45 | 7% | 90% | |
| 46 | 11% | 82% | |
| 47 | 13% | 71% | |
| 48 | 13% | 58% | Median |
| 49 | 14% | 45% | |
| 50 | 10% | 31% | |
| 51 | 9% | 21% | |
| 52 | 6% | 12% | |
| 53 | 3% | 7% | |
| 54 | 2% | 3% | |
| 55 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 56 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 23 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 24 | 5% | 96% | |
| 25 | 9% | 91% | |
| 26 | 13% | 82% | |
| 27 | 16% | 68% | |
| 28 | 16% | 52% | Median |
| 29 | 14% | 36% | |
| 30 | 10% | 22% | |
| 31 | 6% | 11% | Last Result |
| 32 | 3% | 6% | |
| 33 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 34 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 17 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 18 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 19 | 7% | 96% | |
| 20 | 12% | 89% | |
| 21 | 17% | 76% | |
| 22 | 18% | 59% | Median |
| 23 | 16% | 41% | |
| 24 | 12% | 25% | |
| 25 | 7% | 13% | |
| 26 | 3% | 6% | Last Result |
| 27 | 2% | 2% | |
| 28 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 29 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 15 | 5% | 98% | Last Result |
| 16 | 11% | 93% | |
| 17 | 17% | 82% | |
| 18 | 19% | 66% | Median |
| 19 | 19% | 46% | |
| 20 | 14% | 28% | |
| 21 | 8% | 14% | |
| 22 | 4% | 6% | |
| 23 | 2% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 111 | 115 | 100% | 111–119 | 110–120 | 109–121 | 107–123 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 112 | 107 | 100% | 103–111 | 102–113 | 101–113 | 99–116 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 102 | 94 | 81% | 90–99 | 89–100 | 88–101 | 86–103 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 81 | 89 | 19% | 84–93 | 83–94 | 82–95 | 80–97 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 97 | 89 | 20% | 85–93 | 83–94 | 82–95 | 80–97 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 86 | 85 | 3% | 81–89 | 80–90 | 79–92 | 77–94 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 71 | 76 | 0% | 72–80 | 70–81 | 70–82 | 67–84 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 66 | 70 | 0% | 66–74 | 65–75 | 64–77 | 62–79 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 67 | 0% | 63–71 | 62–72 | 61–73 | 59–75 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 48 | 0% | 44–52 | 43–53 | 43–54 | 41–56 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 106 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 107 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 108 | 1.3% | 99.0% | |
| 109 | 2% | 98% | |
| 110 | 4% | 95% | |
| 111 | 6% | 92% | Last Result |
| 112 | 8% | 85% | |
| 113 | 10% | 78% | |
| 114 | 12% | 67% | |
| 115 | 12% | 55% | Median |
| 116 | 12% | 44% | |
| 117 | 10% | 31% | |
| 118 | 8% | 21% | |
| 119 | 6% | 13% | |
| 120 | 3% | 7% | |
| 121 | 2% | 4% | |
| 122 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 123 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 124 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 98 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 99 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 100 | 1.2% | 99.0% | |
| 101 | 2% | 98% | |
| 102 | 3% | 96% | |
| 103 | 6% | 93% | |
| 104 | 9% | 88% | |
| 105 | 10% | 79% | |
| 106 | 9% | 69% | |
| 107 | 12% | 59% | Median |
| 108 | 13% | 48% | |
| 109 | 12% | 34% | |
| 110 | 7% | 23% | |
| 111 | 6% | 15% | |
| 112 | 5% | 10% | Last Result |
| 113 | 3% | 5% | |
| 114 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 115 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 116 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 84 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 86 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 87 | 1.0% | 99.2% | |
| 88 | 2% | 98% | |
| 89 | 3% | 96% | |
| 90 | 5% | 93% | |
| 91 | 7% | 88% | |
| 92 | 9% | 81% | Majority |
| 93 | 11% | 72% | |
| 94 | 12% | 61% | |
| 95 | 12% | 50% | Median |
| 96 | 11% | 37% | |
| 97 | 9% | 26% | |
| 98 | 6% | 17% | |
| 99 | 5% | 11% | |
| 100 | 3% | 6% | |
| 101 | 2% | 3% | |
| 102 | 0.9% | 2% | Last Result |
| 103 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 104 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 78 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 80 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 81 | 0.9% | 99.3% | Last Result |
| 82 | 2% | 98% | |
| 83 | 3% | 97% | |
| 84 | 5% | 94% | |
| 85 | 6% | 89% | |
| 86 | 9% | 83% | |
| 87 | 11% | 74% | |
| 88 | 12% | 63% | Median |
| 89 | 12% | 50% | |
| 90 | 11% | 39% | |
| 91 | 9% | 28% | |
| 92 | 7% | 19% | Majority |
| 93 | 5% | 12% | |
| 94 | 3% | 7% | |
| 95 | 2% | 4% | |
| 96 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 97 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 98 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 78 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 80 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 81 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 82 | 1.5% | 98.7% | |
| 83 | 2% | 97% | |
| 84 | 4% | 95% | |
| 85 | 6% | 91% | |
| 86 | 9% | 84% | |
| 87 | 10% | 75% | |
| 88 | 11% | 66% | |
| 89 | 13% | 55% | Median |
| 90 | 12% | 42% | |
| 91 | 10% | 30% | |
| 92 | 7% | 20% | Majority |
| 93 | 5% | 13% | |
| 94 | 4% | 8% | |
| 95 | 2% | 4% | |
| 96 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 97 | 0.5% | 1.0% | Last Result |
| 98 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 76 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 77 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 78 | 1.2% | 99.0% | |
| 79 | 2% | 98% | |
| 80 | 3% | 96% | |
| 81 | 5% | 92% | |
| 82 | 8% | 87% | |
| 83 | 10% | 79% | |
| 84 | 11% | 69% | |
| 85 | 12% | 57% | Median |
| 86 | 11% | 46% | Last Result |
| 87 | 10% | 34% | |
| 88 | 9% | 24% | |
| 89 | 6% | 15% | |
| 90 | 4% | 9% | |
| 91 | 2% | 5% | |
| 92 | 1.4% | 3% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 94 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 68 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 69 | 1.2% | 98.9% | |
| 70 | 3% | 98% | |
| 71 | 5% | 95% | Last Result |
| 72 | 6% | 90% | |
| 73 | 7% | 85% | |
| 74 | 12% | 77% | |
| 75 | 13% | 66% | |
| 76 | 12% | 52% | Median |
| 77 | 9% | 41% | |
| 78 | 10% | 31% | |
| 79 | 9% | 21% | |
| 80 | 6% | 12% | |
| 81 | 3% | 7% | |
| 82 | 2% | 4% | |
| 83 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 84 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 85 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 63 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 64 | 2% | 98% | |
| 65 | 3% | 96% | |
| 66 | 5% | 93% | Last Result |
| 67 | 8% | 88% | |
| 68 | 10% | 80% | |
| 69 | 12% | 70% | |
| 70 | 12% | 58% | Median |
| 71 | 12% | 46% | |
| 72 | 10% | 34% | |
| 73 | 9% | 24% | |
| 74 | 6% | 15% | |
| 75 | 4% | 9% | |
| 76 | 2% | 5% | |
| 77 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 78 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 79 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 60 | 1.2% | 99.0% | |
| 61 | 2% | 98% | |
| 62 | 4% | 95% | |
| 63 | 7% | 92% | |
| 64 | 8% | 85% | |
| 65 | 11% | 76% | |
| 66 | 12% | 66% | |
| 67 | 13% | 54% | Median |
| 68 | 12% | 41% | |
| 69 | 9% | 29% | |
| 70 | 7% | 19% | |
| 71 | 5% | 12% | Last Result |
| 72 | 3% | 7% | |
| 73 | 2% | 4% | |
| 74 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 75 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 76 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 41 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 42 | 1.3% | 99.0% | |
| 43 | 3% | 98% | |
| 44 | 5% | 95% | |
| 45 | 7% | 90% | |
| 46 | 11% | 82% | |
| 47 | 13% | 71% | |
| 48 | 13% | 58% | Median |
| 49 | 14% | 45% | |
| 50 | 10% | 31% | |
| 51 | 9% | 21% | |
| 52 | 6% | 12% | |
| 53 | 3% | 7% | |
| 54 | 2% | 3% | |
| 55 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 56 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Market
- Commissioner(s): Der Standard
- Fieldwork period: 26–30 March 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 800
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.37%