Opinion Poll by OGM for KURIER, 30 March–1 April 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 35.0% 32.8–37.2% 32.2–37.8% 31.7–38.3% 30.7–39.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 24.0% 22.1–26.0% 21.6–26.6% 21.1–27.1% 20.3–28.0%
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 17.0% 15.4–18.8% 14.9–19.3% 14.5–19.7% 13.8–20.6%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 11.0% 9.7–12.5% 9.3–13.0% 9.0–13.4% 8.4–14.1%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 10.0% 8.7–11.5% 8.4–11.9% 8.1–12.3% 7.5–13.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 66 62–70 61–71 60–72 57–74
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 45 41–49 40–50 40–51 38–53
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 32 29–35 28–36 27–37 26–39
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 20 18–23 17–24 17–25 15–26
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 19 16–21 15–22 15–23 14–24

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.3% 99.8%  
58 0.6% 99.5%  
59 1.3% 98.9%  
60 3% 98%  
61 4% 95%  
62 6% 91%  
63 8% 85%  
64 10% 77%  
65 11% 67%  
66 12% 55% Median
67 11% 43%  
68 10% 32%  
69 8% 22%  
70 5% 14%  
71 4% 8% Last Result
72 2% 5%  
73 1.3% 2%  
74 0.6% 1.1%  
75 0.3% 0.5%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 0.6% 99.7%  
39 1.4% 99.0%  
40 3% 98% Last Result
41 5% 95%  
42 8% 90%  
43 11% 82%  
44 13% 71%  
45 14% 58% Median
46 13% 44%  
47 11% 31%  
48 8% 21%  
49 6% 12%  
50 3% 7%  
51 2% 4%  
52 1.0% 2%  
53 0.4% 0.7%  
54 0.2% 0.2%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.3% 99.9%  
26 1.0% 99.6%  
27 2% 98.6%  
28 5% 96%  
29 9% 91%  
30 12% 83%  
31 15% 71% Last Result
32 15% 55% Median
33 14% 40%  
34 11% 26%  
35 7% 15%  
36 4% 8%  
37 2% 4%  
38 1.0% 2%  
39 0.4% 0.6%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.4% 99.9%  
16 1.5% 99.4%  
17 4% 98%  
18 9% 94%  
19 16% 85%  
20 22% 68% Median
21 18% 47%  
22 12% 29%  
23 8% 16%  
24 4% 8%  
25 2% 4%  
26 1.1% 1.5% Last Result
27 0.3% 0.4%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.3% 100%  
14 1.2% 99.7%  
15 4% 98% Last Result
16 9% 95%  
17 15% 86%  
18 18% 71%  
19 19% 53% Median
20 15% 34%  
21 10% 19%  
22 5% 9%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.8% 1.2%  
25 0.2% 0.3%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 111 111 100% 106–116 105–117 104–118 101–120
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 112 105 100% 101–110 99–111 98–112 96–114
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 102 98 96% 93–102 92–104 91–105 88–107
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 86 7% 82–91 81–92 80–93 77–95
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 85 2% 80–89 79–90 78–91 76–93
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 81 84 2% 80–89 78–90 77–91 75–93
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 71 77 0% 73–81 71–83 70–84 68–86
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 66 0% 62–70 61–71 60–72 57–74
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 66 0% 61–70 60–71 59–72 57–74
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 45 0% 41–49 40–50 40–51 38–53

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0.1% 100%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.3% 99.7%  
102 0.5% 99.4%  
103 1.0% 98.9%  
104 2% 98%  
105 3% 96%  
106 4% 94%  
107 5% 90%  
108 7% 85%  
109 9% 77%  
110 10% 68%  
111 11% 57% Last Result, Median
112 11% 47%  
113 11% 35%  
114 8% 25%  
115 6% 17%  
116 4% 10%  
117 3% 6%  
118 2% 3%  
119 0.8% 1.4%  
120 0.4% 0.6%  
121 0.2% 0.2%  
122 0.1% 0.1%  
123 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0.1% 100%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.3% 99.8%  
96 0.5% 99.5%  
97 1.0% 99.0%  
98 2% 98%  
99 2% 97%  
100 4% 94%  
101 5% 90%  
102 7% 85%  
103 9% 78%  
104 10% 69%  
105 12% 58% Median
106 12% 47%  
107 10% 35%  
108 8% 25%  
109 7% 17%  
110 5% 10%  
111 3% 6%  
112 2% 3% Last Result
113 0.8% 1.5%  
114 0.4% 0.7%  
115 0.2% 0.3%  
116 0.1% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.3% 99.8%  
89 0.6% 99.4%  
90 1.1% 98.9%  
91 2% 98%  
92 3% 96% Majority
93 4% 93%  
94 6% 89%  
95 7% 83%  
96 10% 75%  
97 11% 65%  
98 10% 54% Median
99 12% 44%  
100 10% 32%  
101 7% 23%  
102 6% 16% Last Result
103 4% 9%  
104 2% 5%  
105 1.4% 3%  
106 0.8% 1.3%  
107 0.3% 0.6%  
108 0.2% 0.2%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.3% 99.8%  
78 0.6% 99.4%  
79 1.2% 98.8%  
80 2% 98%  
81 3% 96%  
82 5% 92%  
83 6% 87%  
84 10% 81%  
85 10% 71%  
86 12% 61% Median
87 12% 49%  
88 9% 38%  
89 10% 29%  
90 6% 18%  
91 5% 12%  
92 3% 7% Majority
93 2% 4%  
94 1.1% 2%  
95 0.5% 0.9%  
96 0.3% 0.4%  
97 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.3% 99.8%  
76 0.6% 99.5%  
77 1.0% 98.9%  
78 2% 98%  
79 3% 96%  
80 5% 93%  
81 7% 88%  
82 8% 81%  
83 10% 73%  
84 11% 63%  
85 11% 52% Median
86 11% 41% Last Result
87 9% 29%  
88 7% 20%  
89 5% 13%  
90 3% 8%  
91 2% 5%  
92 1.2% 2% Majority
93 0.6% 1.1%  
94 0.3% 0.5%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.2% 99.9%  
75 0.4% 99.7%  
76 0.7% 99.3%  
77 1.3% 98.6%  
78 2% 97%  
79 3% 95%  
80 5% 92%  
81 7% 86% Last Result
82 8% 79%  
83 11% 70%  
84 12% 60% Median
85 10% 48%  
86 10% 37%  
87 9% 27%  
88 6% 18%  
89 5% 12%  
90 3% 7%  
91 2% 4%  
92 0.9% 2% Majority
93 0.5% 0.9%  
94 0.2% 0.4%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.4% 99.7%  
69 0.7% 99.3%  
70 1.4% 98.6%  
71 2% 97% Last Result
72 4% 95%  
73 6% 91%  
74 8% 85%  
75 9% 77%  
76 11% 68%  
77 12% 57% Median
78 12% 45%  
79 10% 33%  
80 8% 23%  
81 6% 15%  
82 4% 9%  
83 3% 5%  
84 1.4% 3%  
85 0.7% 1.3%  
86 0.4% 0.6%  
87 0.2% 0.2%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.3% 99.8%  
58 0.6% 99.5%  
59 1.3% 98.9%  
60 3% 98%  
61 4% 95%  
62 6% 91%  
63 8% 85%  
64 10% 77%  
65 11% 67%  
66 12% 55% Median
67 11% 43%  
68 10% 32%  
69 8% 22%  
70 5% 14%  
71 4% 8% Last Result
72 2% 5%  
73 1.3% 2%  
74 0.6% 1.1%  
75 0.3% 0.5%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.4% 99.8%  
58 0.8% 99.4%  
59 2% 98.5%  
60 3% 97%  
61 4% 94%  
62 7% 90%  
63 9% 83%  
64 11% 74%  
65 12% 63% Median
66 12% 51% Last Result
67 11% 40%  
68 10% 28%  
69 7% 19%  
70 5% 12%  
71 3% 7%  
72 2% 4%  
73 1.0% 2%  
74 0.5% 0.9%  
75 0.2% 0.4%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 0.6% 99.7%  
39 1.4% 99.0%  
40 3% 98% Last Result
41 5% 95%  
42 8% 90%  
43 11% 82%  
44 13% 71%  
45 14% 58% Median
46 13% 44%  
47 11% 31%  
48 8% 21%  
49 6% 12%  
50 3% 7%  
51 2% 4%  
52 1.0% 2%  
53 0.4% 0.7%  
54 0.2% 0.2%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations