Opinion Poll by Unique Research for profil, 5–8 April 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 33.0% 30.9–35.2% 30.3–35.8% 29.8–36.3% 28.8–37.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 24.0% 22.1–26.0% 21.6–26.6% 21.2–27.1% 20.3–28.1%
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 19.0% 17.3–20.9% 16.8–21.4% 16.4–21.9% 15.7–22.8%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 12.0% 10.6–13.6% 10.2–14.1% 9.9–14.4% 9.3–15.2%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 10.0% 8.7–11.5% 8.4–11.9% 8.1–12.3% 7.5–13.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 62 58–66 57–67 56–68 54–70
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 45 41–49 40–50 39–51 38–52
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 35 32–39 31–40 30–41 29–42
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 22 20–25 19–26 18–27 17–28
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 18 16–21 15–22 15–23 14–24

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.6% 99.7%  
55 1.2% 99.1%  
56 2% 98%  
57 4% 96%  
58 6% 91%  
59 9% 85%  
60 11% 76%  
61 13% 65%  
62 12% 53% Median
63 11% 40%  
64 10% 29%  
65 7% 19%  
66 5% 12%  
67 3% 7%  
68 2% 4%  
69 1.0% 2%  
70 0.5% 0.8%  
71 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.3% 99.9%  
38 0.6% 99.6%  
39 2% 99.0%  
40 3% 97% Last Result
41 6% 94%  
42 9% 88%  
43 11% 79%  
44 14% 68%  
45 14% 55% Median
46 12% 40%  
47 11% 29%  
48 7% 18%  
49 5% 10%  
50 3% 5%  
51 1.4% 3%  
52 0.7% 1.2%  
53 0.3% 0.5%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.2% 99.9%  
29 0.6% 99.7%  
30 2% 99.1%  
31 4% 97% Last Result
32 6% 94%  
33 10% 87%  
34 13% 77%  
35 15% 64% Median
36 15% 49%  
37 12% 34%  
38 9% 22%  
39 6% 12%  
40 3% 7%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.8% 1.3%  
43 0.3% 0.5%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 0.8% 99.8%  
18 3% 99.0%  
19 6% 96%  
20 11% 90%  
21 16% 79%  
22 18% 64% Median
23 17% 46%  
24 13% 29%  
25 8% 16%  
26 4% 8% Last Result
27 2% 3%  
28 0.8% 1.2%  
29 0.3% 0.4%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.3% 100%  
14 1.3% 99.7%  
15 4% 98% Last Result
16 10% 94%  
17 14% 84%  
18 21% 70% Median
19 18% 49%  
20 14% 31%  
21 10% 17%  
22 4% 7%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.6% 0.9%  
25 0.2% 0.3%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 111 106 100% 102–110 101–113 101–113 98–114
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 112 103 100% 98–107 97–108 96–109 94–111
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 102 97 96% 93–102 92–103 91–104 89–106
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 81 86 4% 81–90 80–91 79–92 77–94
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 84 1.3% 80–88 79–90 78–91 76–93
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 71 80 0% 76–85 75–86 74–87 72–89
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 80 0% 76–85 75–86 74–87 72–89
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 67 0% 63–71 62–72 61–74 59–76
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 62 0% 58–66 57–67 56–68 54–70
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 45 0% 41–49 40–50 39–51 38–52

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0% 100%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.7% 99.8%  
99 0.9% 99.1%  
100 0.4% 98%  
101 3% 98%  
102 8% 95%  
103 5% 86%  
104 2% 81%  
105 12% 79%  
106 21% 67%  
107 8% 45% Median
108 3% 37%  
109 12% 34%  
110 13% 22%  
111 3% 9% Last Result
112 0.8% 6%  
113 3% 5%  
114 2% 2%  
115 0.2% 0.4%  
116 0.1% 0.3%  
117 0.1% 0.2%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0.1% 100% Majority
93 0.2% 99.9%  
94 0.4% 99.7%  
95 0.8% 99.3%  
96 2% 98.5%  
97 3% 97%  
98 5% 94%  
99 7% 89%  
100 8% 83%  
101 11% 74%  
102 11% 63% Median
103 13% 53%  
104 10% 39%  
105 11% 29%  
106 7% 19%  
107 5% 12%  
108 3% 7%  
109 2% 4%  
110 1.1% 2%  
111 0.4% 0.8%  
112 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
113 0.1% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.2% 99.8%  
89 0.5% 99.6%  
90 1.1% 99.1%  
91 2% 98%  
92 3% 96% Majority
93 5% 92%  
94 8% 87%  
95 10% 80%  
96 11% 70%  
97 12% 59% Median
98 11% 47%  
99 11% 36%  
100 8% 25%  
101 6% 16%  
102 4% 10% Last Result
103 3% 6%  
104 2% 3%  
105 0.7% 1.4%  
106 0.4% 0.7%  
107 0.2% 0.3%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.2% 99.9%  
77 0.4% 99.7%  
78 0.7% 99.3%  
79 2% 98.6%  
80 3% 97%  
81 4% 94% Last Result
82 6% 90%  
83 8% 84%  
84 11% 75%  
85 11% 64% Median
86 12% 53%  
87 11% 41%  
88 10% 30%  
89 8% 20%  
90 5% 13%  
91 3% 7%  
92 2% 4% Majority
93 1.1% 2%  
94 0.5% 0.9%  
95 0.2% 0.4%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.3% 99.8%  
76 0.6% 99.6%  
77 1.2% 99.0%  
78 2% 98%  
79 4% 96%  
80 6% 92%  
81 8% 86%  
82 9% 78%  
83 11% 68%  
84 12% 57% Median
85 11% 45%  
86 10% 34%  
87 8% 24%  
88 6% 15%  
89 4% 9%  
90 2% 5%  
91 1.5% 3%  
92 0.7% 1.3% Majority
93 0.3% 0.6%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
72 0.4% 99.6%  
73 1.1% 99.2%  
74 2% 98%  
75 3% 96%  
76 5% 93%  
77 7% 88%  
78 11% 81%  
79 10% 71%  
80 13% 60% Median
81 11% 47%  
82 11% 37%  
83 8% 26%  
84 7% 17%  
85 5% 10%  
86 3% 6%  
87 2% 3%  
88 0.8% 1.5%  
89 0.4% 0.7%  
90 0.2% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0% Majority

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.2% 99.9%  
72 0.5% 99.6%  
73 1.1% 99.2%  
74 2% 98%  
75 3% 96%  
76 5% 93%  
77 8% 88%  
78 9% 80%  
79 11% 71%  
80 12% 59% Median
81 11% 47%  
82 11% 36%  
83 8% 26%  
84 7% 17%  
85 4% 10%  
86 3% 6% Last Result
87 2% 3%  
88 0.9% 2%  
89 0.4% 0.7%  
90 0.2% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0% Majority

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 0.5% 99.7%  
60 1.0% 99.2%  
61 2% 98%  
62 3% 96%  
63 5% 93%  
64 8% 88%  
65 10% 80%  
66 11% 70% Last Result
67 13% 59% Median
68 12% 46%  
69 11% 34%  
70 8% 24%  
71 6% 15%  
72 4% 9%  
73 2% 5%  
74 1.3% 3%  
75 0.7% 1.2%  
76 0.3% 0.5%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.6% 99.7%  
55 1.2% 99.1%  
56 2% 98%  
57 4% 96%  
58 6% 91%  
59 9% 85%  
60 11% 76%  
61 13% 65%  
62 12% 53% Median
63 11% 40%  
64 10% 29%  
65 7% 19%  
66 5% 12%  
67 3% 7%  
68 2% 4%  
69 1.0% 2%  
70 0.5% 0.8%  
71 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.3% 99.9%  
38 0.6% 99.6%  
39 2% 99.0%  
40 3% 97% Last Result
41 6% 94%  
42 9% 88%  
43 11% 79%  
44 14% 68%  
45 14% 55% Median
46 12% 40%  
47 11% 29%  
48 7% 18%  
49 5% 10%  
50 3% 5%  
51 1.4% 3%  
52 0.7% 1.2%  
53 0.3% 0.5%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations