Opinion Poll by Unique Research for profil, 10–12 May 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 37.5% | 34.0% | 31.9–36.2% | 31.3–36.8% | 30.8–37.4% | 29.8–38.4% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 21.2% | 23.0% | 21.2–25.0% | 20.7–25.6% | 20.2–26.0% | 19.4–27.0% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 16.2% | 18.0% | 16.4–19.8% | 15.9–20.4% | 15.5–20.8% | 14.7–21.7% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 13.9% | 12.0% | 10.6–13.6% | 10.2–14.1% | 9.9–14.4% | 9.3–15.2% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 8.1% | 10.0% | 8.7–11.5% | 8.4–11.9% | 8.1–12.3% | 7.5–13.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 64 | 60–68 | 59–70 | 58–71 | 56–72 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 43 | 40–47 | 39–48 | 38–49 | 36–51 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 31 | 34 | 31–37 | 30–38 | 29–39 | 27–41 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 26 | 22 | 20–25 | 19–26 | 18–27 | 17–28 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 15 | 19 | 16–21 | 15–22 | 15–23 | 14–24 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 57 | 1.1% | 99.1% | |
| 58 | 2% | 98% | |
| 59 | 3% | 96% | |
| 60 | 6% | 93% | |
| 61 | 8% | 87% | |
| 62 | 10% | 79% | |
| 63 | 12% | 69% | |
| 64 | 12% | 57% | Median |
| 65 | 12% | 45% | |
| 66 | 10% | 34% | |
| 67 | 8% | 23% | |
| 68 | 6% | 15% | |
| 69 | 4% | 9% | |
| 70 | 2% | 5% | |
| 71 | 1.3% | 3% | Last Result |
| 72 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 73 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 37 | 1.2% | 99.3% | |
| 38 | 3% | 98% | |
| 39 | 4% | 96% | |
| 40 | 8% | 91% | Last Result |
| 41 | 10% | 84% | |
| 42 | 13% | 73% | |
| 43 | 14% | 60% | Median |
| 44 | 13% | 46% | |
| 45 | 12% | 34% | |
| 46 | 8% | 21% | |
| 47 | 6% | 13% | |
| 48 | 4% | 7% | |
| 49 | 2% | 4% | |
| 50 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 51 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 1.1% | 99.4% | |
| 29 | 3% | 98% | |
| 30 | 5% | 95% | |
| 31 | 9% | 90% | Last Result |
| 32 | 13% | 81% | |
| 33 | 14% | 69% | |
| 34 | 15% | 55% | Median |
| 35 | 14% | 40% | |
| 36 | 11% | 26% | |
| 37 | 7% | 15% | |
| 38 | 4% | 8% | |
| 39 | 2% | 4% | |
| 40 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 41 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 18 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 19 | 6% | 97% | |
| 20 | 10% | 91% | |
| 21 | 15% | 81% | |
| 22 | 18% | 66% | Median |
| 23 | 17% | 48% | |
| 24 | 14% | 31% | |
| 25 | 9% | 18% | |
| 26 | 5% | 9% | Last Result |
| 27 | 2% | 4% | |
| 28 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 29 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 14 | 1.2% | 99.7% | |
| 15 | 4% | 98.6% | Last Result |
| 16 | 9% | 95% | |
| 17 | 15% | 86% | |
| 18 | 19% | 71% | |
| 19 | 19% | 52% | Median |
| 20 | 15% | 33% | |
| 21 | 9% | 18% | |
| 22 | 5% | 9% | |
| 23 | 2% | 3% | |
| 24 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 25 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 111 | 108 | 100% | 103–112 | 102–113 | 100–114 | 98–116 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 112 | 105 | 100% | 101–110 | 99–111 | 98–112 | 96–114 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 102 | 98 | 97% | 93–102 | 92–104 | 91–105 | 89–107 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 97 | 87 | 8% | 82–91 | 81–92 | 80–93 | 78–95 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 81 | 84 | 2% | 80–89 | 79–90 | 78–91 | 75–93 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 86 | 83 | 0.5% | 78–87 | 77–88 | 76–89 | 74–92 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 71 | 77 | 0% | 73–81 | 72–83 | 70–84 | 68–86 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 66 | 66 | 0% | 62–70 | 60–71 | 59–72 | 57–74 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 64 | 0% | 60–68 | 59–70 | 58–71 | 56–72 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 43 | 0% | 40–47 | 39–48 | 38–49 | 36–51 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 97 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 98 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 99 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 100 | 1.3% | 98.6% | |
| 101 | 2% | 97% | |
| 102 | 3% | 95% | |
| 103 | 5% | 92% | |
| 104 | 7% | 87% | |
| 105 | 9% | 80% | |
| 106 | 10% | 72% | |
| 107 | 11% | 61% | Median |
| 108 | 11% | 50% | |
| 109 | 10% | 39% | |
| 110 | 9% | 28% | |
| 111 | 7% | 19% | Last Result |
| 112 | 5% | 12% | |
| 113 | 3% | 7% | |
| 114 | 2% | 4% | |
| 115 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 116 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 117 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 95 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 96 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 97 | 0.8% | 99.2% | |
| 98 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 99 | 2% | 97% | |
| 100 | 4% | 95% | |
| 101 | 5% | 91% | |
| 102 | 7% | 86% | |
| 103 | 9% | 79% | |
| 104 | 10% | 70% | |
| 105 | 12% | 59% | Median |
| 106 | 11% | 48% | |
| 107 | 10% | 37% | |
| 108 | 9% | 27% | |
| 109 | 6% | 18% | |
| 110 | 5% | 11% | |
| 111 | 3% | 6% | |
| 112 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 113 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 114 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 115 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 88 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 89 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 90 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 91 | 2% | 98% | |
| 92 | 3% | 97% | Majority |
| 93 | 4% | 94% | |
| 94 | 6% | 90% | |
| 95 | 7% | 84% | |
| 96 | 9% | 77% | |
| 97 | 11% | 67% | |
| 98 | 12% | 56% | Median |
| 99 | 11% | 44% | |
| 100 | 10% | 34% | |
| 101 | 8% | 24% | |
| 102 | 6% | 15% | Last Result |
| 103 | 4% | 9% | |
| 104 | 3% | 5% | |
| 105 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 106 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 107 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 77 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 78 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 79 | 0.9% | 98.9% | |
| 80 | 2% | 98% | |
| 81 | 3% | 96% | |
| 82 | 5% | 93% | |
| 83 | 7% | 88% | |
| 84 | 9% | 82% | |
| 85 | 10% | 73% | |
| 86 | 11% | 62% | Median |
| 87 | 11% | 51% | |
| 88 | 11% | 40% | |
| 89 | 9% | 29% | |
| 90 | 7% | 21% | |
| 91 | 5% | 13% | |
| 92 | 4% | 8% | Majority |
| 93 | 2% | 4% | |
| 94 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 95 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 96 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 98 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 76 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 77 | 1.2% | 98.9% | |
| 78 | 2% | 98% | |
| 79 | 3% | 96% | |
| 80 | 5% | 92% | |
| 81 | 7% | 87% | Last Result |
| 82 | 9% | 81% | |
| 83 | 10% | 71% | |
| 84 | 11% | 61% | Median |
| 85 | 12% | 50% | |
| 86 | 11% | 38% | |
| 87 | 9% | 27% | |
| 88 | 7% | 18% | |
| 89 | 5% | 12% | |
| 90 | 3% | 7% | |
| 91 | 2% | 4% | |
| 92 | 1.0% | 2% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 94 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 73 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 74 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 75 | 0.8% | 99.2% | |
| 76 | 2% | 98% | |
| 77 | 3% | 97% | |
| 78 | 5% | 94% | |
| 79 | 6% | 89% | |
| 80 | 8% | 83% | |
| 81 | 10% | 75% | |
| 82 | 11% | 65% | |
| 83 | 12% | 54% | Median |
| 84 | 11% | 42% | |
| 85 | 9% | 31% | |
| 86 | 8% | 22% | Last Result |
| 87 | 5% | 14% | |
| 88 | 4% | 9% | |
| 89 | 2% | 5% | |
| 90 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 91 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 92 | 0.3% | 0.5% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 69 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 70 | 1.5% | 98.8% | |
| 71 | 2% | 97% | Last Result |
| 72 | 4% | 95% | |
| 73 | 6% | 91% | |
| 74 | 8% | 86% | |
| 75 | 10% | 78% | |
| 76 | 11% | 68% | |
| 77 | 11% | 57% | Median |
| 78 | 12% | 46% | |
| 79 | 10% | 35% | |
| 80 | 8% | 24% | |
| 81 | 6% | 16% | |
| 82 | 4% | 10% | |
| 83 | 3% | 6% | |
| 84 | 2% | 3% | |
| 85 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 86 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 87 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 58 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 59 | 1.4% | 98.7% | |
| 60 | 3% | 97% | |
| 61 | 4% | 95% | |
| 62 | 6% | 90% | |
| 63 | 9% | 84% | |
| 64 | 10% | 75% | |
| 65 | 12% | 65% | Median |
| 66 | 12% | 53% | Last Result |
| 67 | 11% | 41% | |
| 68 | 10% | 30% | |
| 69 | 7% | 20% | |
| 70 | 5% | 13% | |
| 71 | 3% | 7% | |
| 72 | 2% | 4% | |
| 73 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 74 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 75 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 57 | 1.1% | 99.1% | |
| 58 | 2% | 98% | |
| 59 | 3% | 96% | |
| 60 | 6% | 93% | |
| 61 | 8% | 87% | |
| 62 | 10% | 79% | |
| 63 | 12% | 69% | |
| 64 | 12% | 57% | Median |
| 65 | 12% | 45% | |
| 66 | 10% | 34% | |
| 67 | 8% | 23% | |
| 68 | 6% | 15% | |
| 69 | 4% | 9% | |
| 70 | 2% | 5% | |
| 71 | 1.3% | 3% | Last Result |
| 72 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 73 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 37 | 1.2% | 99.3% | |
| 38 | 3% | 98% | |
| 39 | 4% | 96% | |
| 40 | 8% | 91% | Last Result |
| 41 | 10% | 84% | |
| 42 | 13% | 73% | |
| 43 | 14% | 60% | Median |
| 44 | 13% | 46% | |
| 45 | 12% | 34% | |
| 46 | 8% | 21% | |
| 47 | 6% | 13% | |
| 48 | 4% | 7% | |
| 49 | 2% | 4% | |
| 50 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 51 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Unique Research
- Commissioner(s): profil
- Fieldwork period: 10–12 May 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 800
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.04%