Opinion Poll by Demox Research, 14 May 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 33.0% 31.1–34.9% 30.6–35.5% 30.1–36.0% 29.3–36.9%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 23.0% 21.4–24.8% 20.9–25.3% 20.5–25.7% 19.7–26.6%
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 18.0% 16.5–19.6% 16.1–20.1% 15.7–20.5% 15.0–21.3%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 12.0% 10.8–13.4% 10.4–13.8% 10.1–14.2% 9.6–14.9%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 11.0% 9.8–12.4% 9.5–12.8% 9.2–13.1% 8.7–13.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 62 59–66 58–67 57–68 55–70
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 43 40–47 39–48 38–48 37–50
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 34 31–37 30–38 29–39 28–40
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 22 20–25 19–26 19–26 18–28
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 21 18–23 18–24 17–24 16–26

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 0.5% 99.7%  
56 1.2% 99.2%  
57 2% 98%  
58 5% 96%  
59 7% 91%  
60 10% 84%  
61 12% 74%  
62 14% 62% Median
63 13% 47%  
64 11% 34%  
65 9% 23%  
66 6% 13%  
67 4% 7%  
68 2% 4%  
69 1.0% 2%  
70 0.4% 0.7%  
71 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 0.7% 99.7%  
38 2% 99.0%  
39 4% 97%  
40 7% 94% Last Result
41 10% 87%  
42 14% 77%  
43 16% 63% Median
44 15% 47%  
45 12% 32%  
46 9% 20%  
47 5% 11%  
48 3% 5%  
49 1.4% 2%  
50 0.6% 0.9%  
51 0.2% 0.3%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.2% 100%  
28 0.6% 99.8%  
29 2% 99.1%  
30 4% 97%  
31 8% 93% Last Result
32 13% 84%  
33 16% 72%  
34 17% 55% Median
35 15% 39%  
36 11% 24%  
37 7% 13%  
38 4% 6%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.6% 0.9%  
41 0.2% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0% 100%  
17 0.3% 99.9%  
18 1.4% 99.6%  
19 4% 98%  
20 10% 94%  
21 16% 84%  
22 20% 68% Median
23 19% 48%  
24 14% 29%  
25 9% 15%  
26 4% 6% Last Result
27 2% 2%  
28 0.5% 0.7%  
29 0.1% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100% Last Result
16 1.0% 99.8%  
17 4% 98.8%  
18 9% 95%  
19 16% 86%  
20 20% 71%  
21 20% 50% Median
22 15% 30%  
23 9% 15%  
24 4% 6%  
25 2% 2%  
26 0.5% 0.7%  
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 111 106 100% 102–110 101–111 99–112 97–113
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 112 105 100% 101–109 100–110 99–111 97–113
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 102 96 93% 92–100 91–101 90–102 88–104
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 81 86 5% 82–90 81–91 80–92 78–94
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 85 1.3% 81–89 80–90 79–91 77–93
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 83 0.2% 79–87 78–88 77–89 75–91
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 71 77 0% 73–81 72–82 71–83 69–85
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 66 0% 62–70 61–71 60–72 58–73
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 62 0% 59–66 58–67 57–68 55–70
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 43 0% 40–47 39–48 38–48 37–50

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0.1% 100%  
96 0.2% 99.9%  
97 0.3% 99.7%  
98 0.8% 99.4%  
99 1.3% 98.7%  
100 2% 97%  
101 4% 95%  
102 6% 91%  
103 8% 85%  
104 11% 77%  
105 12% 66% Median
106 13% 54%  
107 12% 40%  
108 11% 28%  
109 7% 18%  
110 5% 11%  
111 3% 6% Last Result
112 2% 3%  
113 0.7% 1.1%  
114 0.3% 0.5%  
115 0.1% 0.2%  
116 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.2% 99.9%  
97 0.4% 99.7%  
98 0.9% 99.2%  
99 1.5% 98%  
100 3% 97%  
101 4% 94%  
102 7% 90%  
103 10% 82%  
104 10% 73%  
105 12% 62% Median
106 14% 50%  
107 11% 36%  
108 10% 25%  
109 6% 15%  
110 4% 9%  
111 3% 5%  
112 1.3% 2% Last Result
113 0.5% 0.8%  
114 0.2% 0.3%  
115 0.1% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100%  
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.2% 99.9%  
88 0.5% 99.6%  
89 0.9% 99.2%  
90 2% 98%  
91 3% 96%  
92 5% 93% Majority
93 7% 88%  
94 9% 81%  
95 12% 72%  
96 13% 59% Median
97 12% 46%  
98 11% 34%  
99 9% 23%  
100 6% 14%  
101 4% 8%  
102 2% 4% Last Result
103 1.1% 2%  
104 0.5% 0.8%  
105 0.2% 0.3%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.4% 99.8%  
79 0.8% 99.4%  
80 2% 98.6%  
81 3% 97% Last Result
82 4% 94%  
83 7% 90%  
84 10% 83%  
85 12% 73%  
86 12% 61% Median
87 13% 49%  
88 12% 36%  
89 9% 24%  
90 7% 15%  
91 4% 9%  
92 3% 5% Majority
93 1.2% 2%  
94 0.6% 1.0%  
95 0.2% 0.4%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.2% 99.8%  
77 0.6% 99.6%  
78 1.1% 99.0%  
79 2% 98%  
80 4% 96%  
81 5% 92%  
82 9% 86%  
83 10% 77%  
84 13% 67% Median
85 13% 54%  
86 12% 41%  
87 11% 29%  
88 7% 19%  
89 6% 11%  
90 3% 6%  
91 2% 3%  
92 0.7% 1.3% Majority
93 0.4% 0.6%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.2% 99.9%  
75 0.5% 99.7%  
76 1.1% 99.2%  
77 2% 98%  
78 4% 96%  
79 6% 93%  
80 8% 87%  
81 10% 79%  
82 13% 68%  
83 13% 55% Median
84 13% 43%  
85 10% 30%  
86 8% 20% Last Result
87 5% 12%  
88 3% 6%  
89 2% 3%  
90 0.9% 1.5%  
91 0.4% 0.6%  
92 0.2% 0.2% Majority
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.4% 99.8%  
70 0.8% 99.4%  
71 2% 98.7% Last Result
72 3% 97%  
73 5% 94%  
74 7% 89%  
75 10% 82%  
76 12% 72%  
77 14% 60% Median
78 12% 46%  
79 10% 33%  
80 9% 23%  
81 6% 14%  
82 4% 8%  
83 2% 4%  
84 1.0% 2%  
85 0.5% 0.8%  
86 0.2% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0.2% 99.9%  
58 0.4% 99.8%  
59 0.9% 99.4%  
60 2% 98%  
61 3% 97%  
62 6% 93%  
63 9% 87%  
64 10% 78%  
65 14% 68% Median
66 14% 54% Last Result
67 12% 40%  
68 10% 28%  
69 8% 18%  
70 5% 10%  
71 3% 6%  
72 2% 3%  
73 0.6% 1.1%  
74 0.3% 0.5%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 0.5% 99.7%  
56 1.2% 99.2%  
57 2% 98%  
58 5% 96%  
59 7% 91%  
60 10% 84%  
61 12% 74%  
62 14% 62% Median
63 13% 47%  
64 11% 34%  
65 9% 23%  
66 6% 13%  
67 4% 7%  
68 2% 4%  
69 1.0% 2%  
70 0.4% 0.7%  
71 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 0.7% 99.7%  
38 2% 99.0%  
39 4% 97%  
40 7% 94% Last Result
41 10% 87%  
42 14% 77%  
43 16% 63% Median
44 15% 47%  
45 12% 32%  
46 9% 20%  
47 5% 11%  
48 3% 5%  
49 1.4% 2%  
50 0.6% 0.9%  
51 0.2% 0.3%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations