Opinion Poll by Market for Der Standard, 8–10 June 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 37.5% | 32.0% | 30.0–34.1% | 29.4–34.7% | 28.9–35.2% | 28.0–36.2% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 21.2% | 27.0% | 25.1–29.0% | 24.6–29.6% | 24.1–30.1% | 23.2–31.1% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 16.2% | 16.1% | 14.5–17.8% | 14.1–18.3% | 13.7–18.7% | 13.0–19.6% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 13.9% | 13.0% | 11.6–14.6% | 11.2–15.0% | 10.9–15.4% | 10.2–16.2% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 8.1% | 11.1% | 9.8–12.6% | 9.4–13.0% | 9.1–13.4% | 8.5–14.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 59 | 55–63 | 54–64 | 54–65 | 52–67 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 50 | 46–54 | 45–55 | 44–56 | 43–57 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 31 | 29 | 27–33 | 26–34 | 25–34 | 24–36 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 26 | 24 | 21–27 | 20–28 | 20–28 | 19–30 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 15 | 20 | 18–23 | 17–24 | 16–25 | 15–26 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 53 | 1.3% | 98.8% | |
| 54 | 3% | 98% | |
| 55 | 5% | 95% | |
| 56 | 7% | 89% | |
| 57 | 9% | 82% | |
| 58 | 10% | 73% | |
| 59 | 14% | 63% | Median |
| 60 | 16% | 48% | |
| 61 | 10% | 32% | |
| 62 | 7% | 22% | |
| 63 | 7% | 15% | |
| 64 | 4% | 8% | |
| 65 | 3% | 5% | |
| 66 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 67 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 44 | 1.4% | 98.9% | |
| 45 | 3% | 97% | |
| 46 | 5% | 95% | |
| 47 | 10% | 90% | |
| 48 | 14% | 80% | |
| 49 | 10% | 66% | |
| 50 | 15% | 56% | Median |
| 51 | 13% | 42% | |
| 52 | 10% | 29% | |
| 53 | 8% | 19% | |
| 54 | 5% | 11% | |
| 55 | 3% | 6% | |
| 56 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 57 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 25 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 26 | 5% | 96% | |
| 27 | 10% | 91% | |
| 28 | 13% | 81% | |
| 29 | 19% | 68% | Median |
| 30 | 15% | 49% | |
| 31 | 12% | 34% | Last Result |
| 32 | 11% | 22% | |
| 33 | 5% | 11% | |
| 34 | 3% | 5% | |
| 35 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 36 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 1.5% | 99.6% | |
| 20 | 4% | 98% | |
| 21 | 7% | 94% | |
| 22 | 15% | 87% | |
| 23 | 15% | 72% | |
| 24 | 21% | 57% | Median |
| 25 | 15% | 36% | |
| 26 | 10% | 21% | Last Result |
| 27 | 6% | 11% | |
| 28 | 3% | 5% | |
| 29 | 2% | 2% | |
| 30 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 31 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.5% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 16 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 17 | 4% | 97% | |
| 18 | 11% | 93% | |
| 19 | 17% | 82% | |
| 20 | 21% | 64% | Median |
| 21 | 16% | 44% | |
| 22 | 13% | 27% | |
| 23 | 9% | 15% | |
| 24 | 3% | 6% | |
| 25 | 2% | 3% | |
| 26 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 111 | 109 | 100% | 106–112 | 103–115 | 103–116 | 102–117 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 112 | 103 | 100% | 99–107 | 98–109 | 97–110 | 95–111 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 81 | 94 | 78% | 90–98 | 89–99 | 88–100 | 86–102 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 102 | 89 | 22% | 85–93 | 84–94 | 83–95 | 81–97 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 97 | 83 | 0.4% | 79–87 | 78–89 | 77–89 | 75–91 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 71 | 80 | 0% | 76–84 | 74–85 | 73–86 | 72–88 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 86 | 80 | 0% | 76–84 | 75–84 | 73–85 | 71–88 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 66 | 74 | 0% | 70–78 | 69–79 | 68–80 | 66–82 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 59 | 0% | 55–63 | 54–64 | 54–65 | 52–67 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 50 | 0% | 46–54 | 45–55 | 44–56 | 43–57 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 98 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 100 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 102 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 103 | 3% | 98% | |
| 104 | 2% | 95% | |
| 105 | 0.4% | 93% | |
| 106 | 6% | 92% | |
| 107 | 22% | 87% | |
| 108 | 15% | 65% | |
| 109 | 2% | 50% | Median |
| 110 | 3% | 48% | |
| 111 | 18% | 45% | Last Result |
| 112 | 18% | 27% | |
| 113 | 4% | 10% | |
| 114 | 0.6% | 6% | |
| 115 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 116 | 3% | 4% | |
| 117 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 95 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 96 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 97 | 1.1% | 98.5% | |
| 98 | 4% | 97% | |
| 99 | 4% | 94% | |
| 100 | 8% | 90% | |
| 101 | 8% | 82% | |
| 102 | 13% | 73% | |
| 103 | 11% | 61% | Median |
| 104 | 10% | 50% | |
| 105 | 13% | 40% | |
| 106 | 10% | 26% | |
| 107 | 6% | 16% | |
| 108 | 4% | 10% | |
| 109 | 2% | 5% | |
| 110 | 2% | 3% | |
| 111 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 112 | 0.3% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 113 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 81 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 86 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 87 | 1.1% | 99.1% | |
| 88 | 2% | 98% | |
| 89 | 4% | 96% | |
| 90 | 4% | 92% | |
| 91 | 10% | 88% | |
| 92 | 9% | 78% | Majority |
| 93 | 11% | 69% | |
| 94 | 12% | 58% | Median |
| 95 | 13% | 45% | |
| 96 | 9% | 32% | |
| 97 | 8% | 23% | |
| 98 | 7% | 15% | |
| 99 | 3% | 8% | |
| 100 | 2% | 5% | |
| 101 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 102 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 103 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 104 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 80 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 81 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 82 | 1.1% | 98.9% | |
| 83 | 2% | 98% | |
| 84 | 3% | 95% | |
| 85 | 7% | 92% | |
| 86 | 8% | 85% | |
| 87 | 9% | 77% | |
| 88 | 13% | 68% | Median |
| 89 | 12% | 55% | |
| 90 | 11% | 42% | |
| 91 | 9% | 31% | |
| 92 | 10% | 22% | Majority |
| 93 | 4% | 12% | |
| 94 | 4% | 8% | |
| 95 | 2% | 4% | |
| 96 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 97 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 98 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 75 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 76 | 1.1% | 99.2% | |
| 77 | 2% | 98% | |
| 78 | 4% | 97% | |
| 79 | 7% | 93% | |
| 80 | 5% | 86% | |
| 81 | 11% | 81% | |
| 82 | 11% | 69% | |
| 83 | 12% | 58% | Median |
| 84 | 14% | 47% | |
| 85 | 10% | 32% | |
| 86 | 8% | 23% | |
| 87 | 7% | 15% | |
| 88 | 3% | 9% | |
| 89 | 3% | 5% | |
| 90 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 91 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 92 | 0.2% | 0.4% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 0.3% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 72 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 73 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 74 | 2% | 97% | |
| 75 | 4% | 95% | |
| 76 | 6% | 90% | |
| 77 | 10% | 84% | |
| 78 | 13% | 74% | |
| 79 | 10% | 60% | Median |
| 80 | 11% | 50% | |
| 81 | 13% | 39% | |
| 82 | 8% | 27% | |
| 83 | 8% | 18% | |
| 84 | 4% | 10% | |
| 85 | 4% | 6% | |
| 86 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 87 | 0.8% | 1.5% | |
| 88 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 1.2% | 99.4% | |
| 73 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 74 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 75 | 4% | 96% | |
| 76 | 13% | 92% | |
| 77 | 5% | 79% | |
| 78 | 5% | 73% | |
| 79 | 14% | 69% | Median |
| 80 | 19% | 55% | |
| 81 | 12% | 36% | |
| 82 | 3% | 24% | |
| 83 | 8% | 21% | |
| 84 | 8% | 13% | |
| 85 | 3% | 5% | |
| 86 | 0.7% | 2% | Last Result |
| 87 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 88 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 89 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 0.4% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 67 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 68 | 2% | 98% | |
| 69 | 3% | 95% | |
| 70 | 7% | 92% | |
| 71 | 9% | 85% | |
| 72 | 11% | 77% | |
| 73 | 15% | 66% | |
| 74 | 9% | 51% | Median |
| 75 | 13% | 42% | |
| 76 | 10% | 29% | |
| 77 | 6% | 19% | |
| 78 | 6% | 12% | |
| 79 | 2% | 6% | |
| 80 | 2% | 4% | |
| 81 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 82 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 83 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 53 | 1.3% | 98.8% | |
| 54 | 3% | 98% | |
| 55 | 5% | 95% | |
| 56 | 7% | 89% | |
| 57 | 9% | 82% | |
| 58 | 10% | 73% | |
| 59 | 14% | 63% | Median |
| 60 | 16% | 48% | |
| 61 | 10% | 32% | |
| 62 | 7% | 22% | |
| 63 | 7% | 15% | |
| 64 | 4% | 8% | |
| 65 | 3% | 5% | |
| 66 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 67 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 44 | 1.4% | 98.9% | |
| 45 | 3% | 97% | |
| 46 | 5% | 95% | |
| 47 | 10% | 90% | |
| 48 | 14% | 80% | |
| 49 | 10% | 66% | |
| 50 | 15% | 56% | Median |
| 51 | 13% | 42% | |
| 52 | 10% | 29% | |
| 53 | 8% | 19% | |
| 54 | 5% | 11% | |
| 55 | 3% | 6% | |
| 56 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 57 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Market
- Commissioner(s): Der Standard
- Fieldwork period: 8–10 June 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 841
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.49%