Opinion Poll by IFDD for PULS 24, 10–15 June 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 37.5% | 32.0% | 29.9–34.2% | 29.4–34.8% | 28.9–35.3% | 27.9–36.4% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 21.2% | 27.0% | 25.1–29.1% | 24.5–29.7% | 24.1–30.2% | 23.2–31.2% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 16.2% | 18.1% | 16.4–19.9% | 15.9–20.4% | 15.5–20.9% | 14.8–21.8% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 8.1% | 11.0% | 9.6–12.5% | 9.3–12.9% | 9.0–13.3% | 8.4–14.1% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 13.9% | 11.0% | 9.6–12.5% | 9.3–12.9% | 9.0–13.3% | 8.4–14.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 59 | 55–63 | 54–64 | 53–65 | 51–67 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 50 | 46–54 | 45–55 | 44–56 | 43–58 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 31 | 33 | 30–37 | 29–38 | 28–38 | 27–40 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 15 | 20 | 18–23 | 17–23 | 16–25 | 16–25 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 26 | 20 | 17–23 | 17–24 | 16–24 | 15–26 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 52 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 53 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 54 | 3% | 97% | |
| 55 | 5% | 95% | |
| 56 | 7% | 89% | |
| 57 | 11% | 83% | |
| 58 | 14% | 72% | |
| 59 | 11% | 58% | Median |
| 60 | 14% | 48% | |
| 61 | 9% | 34% | |
| 62 | 10% | 25% | |
| 63 | 6% | 15% | |
| 64 | 4% | 9% | |
| 65 | 2% | 5% | |
| 66 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 67 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 44 | 1.4% | 98.9% | |
| 45 | 4% | 97% | |
| 46 | 5% | 94% | |
| 47 | 9% | 89% | |
| 48 | 10% | 80% | |
| 49 | 14% | 70% | |
| 50 | 13% | 56% | Median |
| 51 | 12% | 43% | |
| 52 | 12% | 31% | |
| 53 | 7% | 19% | |
| 54 | 5% | 12% | |
| 55 | 3% | 7% | |
| 56 | 2% | 3% | |
| 57 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 58 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 28 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 29 | 3% | 97% | |
| 30 | 7% | 94% | |
| 31 | 12% | 87% | Last Result |
| 32 | 14% | 74% | |
| 33 | 14% | 60% | Median |
| 34 | 14% | 46% | |
| 35 | 12% | 33% | |
| 36 | 8% | 20% | |
| 37 | 6% | 12% | |
| 38 | 4% | 6% | |
| 39 | 2% | 2% | |
| 40 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 16 | 4% | 99.7% | |
| 17 | 0.8% | 95% | |
| 18 | 20% | 95% | |
| 19 | 8% | 75% | |
| 20 | 27% | 67% | Median |
| 21 | 15% | 40% | |
| 22 | 10% | 25% | |
| 23 | 10% | 14% | |
| 24 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 25 | 3% | 3% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 27 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 17 | 7% | 97% | |
| 18 | 11% | 90% | |
| 19 | 18% | 79% | |
| 20 | 17% | 61% | Median |
| 21 | 18% | 44% | |
| 22 | 13% | 26% | |
| 23 | 7% | 13% | |
| 24 | 4% | 6% | |
| 25 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 26 | 0.5% | 0.7% | Last Result |
| 27 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 111 | 109 | 100% | 105–113 | 104–115 | 103–116 | 101–118 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 112 | 100 | 99.2% | 95–104 | 94–105 | 93–106 | 91–108 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 102 | 93 | 63% | 88–97 | 87–98 | 86–99 | 84–101 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 81 | 90 | 37% | 86–95 | 85–96 | 84–97 | 82–99 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 71 | 83 | 0.8% | 79–88 | 78–89 | 77–90 | 75–92 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 97 | 80 | 0% | 75–84 | 74–85 | 73–86 | 71–88 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 86 | 79 | 0% | 75–84 | 74–85 | 73–86 | 71–88 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 66 | 70 | 0% | 66–75 | 65–76 | 64–77 | 62–78 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 59 | 0% | 55–63 | 54–64 | 53–65 | 51–67 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 50 | 0% | 46–54 | 45–55 | 44–56 | 43–58 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 101 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 102 | 1.1% | 99.1% | |
| 103 | 2% | 98% | |
| 104 | 3% | 96% | |
| 105 | 5% | 93% | |
| 106 | 6% | 88% | |
| 107 | 10% | 82% | |
| 108 | 12% | 72% | |
| 109 | 13% | 60% | Median |
| 110 | 12% | 47% | |
| 111 | 10% | 35% | Last Result |
| 112 | 9% | 25% | |
| 113 | 7% | 16% | |
| 114 | 4% | 10% | |
| 115 | 3% | 6% | |
| 116 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 117 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 118 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 89 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 91 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 92 | 0.8% | 99.2% | Majority |
| 93 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 94 | 3% | 97% | |
| 95 | 4% | 94% | |
| 96 | 7% | 90% | |
| 97 | 8% | 83% | |
| 98 | 11% | 75% | |
| 99 | 11% | 64% | Median |
| 100 | 12% | 52% | |
| 101 | 11% | 40% | |
| 102 | 11% | 29% | |
| 103 | 6% | 19% | |
| 104 | 6% | 13% | |
| 105 | 3% | 7% | |
| 106 | 2% | 4% | |
| 107 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 108 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 109 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 82 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 84 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 85 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 86 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 87 | 3% | 97% | |
| 88 | 5% | 94% | |
| 89 | 5% | 88% | |
| 90 | 10% | 83% | |
| 91 | 11% | 73% | |
| 92 | 10% | 63% | Median, Majority |
| 93 | 14% | 53% | |
| 94 | 9% | 39% | |
| 95 | 10% | 30% | |
| 96 | 7% | 19% | |
| 97 | 5% | 12% | |
| 98 | 4% | 8% | |
| 99 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 100 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 101 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 102 | 0.2% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 103 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 82 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 83 | 1.1% | 99.2% | |
| 84 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 85 | 4% | 97% | |
| 86 | 5% | 92% | |
| 87 | 7% | 88% | |
| 88 | 10% | 81% | |
| 89 | 9% | 70% | |
| 90 | 14% | 61% | Median |
| 91 | 10% | 47% | |
| 92 | 11% | 37% | Majority |
| 93 | 10% | 27% | |
| 94 | 5% | 17% | |
| 95 | 5% | 12% | |
| 96 | 3% | 6% | |
| 97 | 2% | 3% | |
| 98 | 0.9% | 1.5% | |
| 99 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 75 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 76 | 1.2% | 99.2% | |
| 77 | 2% | 98% | |
| 78 | 3% | 96% | |
| 79 | 6% | 93% | |
| 80 | 6% | 87% | |
| 81 | 11% | 81% | |
| 82 | 11% | 71% | |
| 83 | 12% | 60% | Median |
| 84 | 11% | 48% | |
| 85 | 11% | 36% | |
| 86 | 8% | 25% | |
| 87 | 7% | 17% | |
| 88 | 4% | 10% | |
| 89 | 3% | 6% | |
| 90 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 91 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 92 | 0.5% | 0.8% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 72 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 73 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 74 | 3% | 97% | |
| 75 | 5% | 93% | |
| 76 | 8% | 88% | |
| 77 | 9% | 81% | |
| 78 | 10% | 72% | |
| 79 | 12% | 62% | Median |
| 80 | 10% | 50% | |
| 81 | 12% | 40% | |
| 82 | 11% | 28% | |
| 83 | 7% | 18% | |
| 84 | 6% | 11% | |
| 85 | 2% | 5% | |
| 86 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 87 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 88 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 89 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 72 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 73 | 2% | 98% | |
| 74 | 3% | 97% | |
| 75 | 5% | 94% | |
| 76 | 6% | 89% | |
| 77 | 10% | 83% | |
| 78 | 12% | 73% | |
| 79 | 11% | 61% | Median |
| 80 | 12% | 50% | |
| 81 | 9% | 38% | |
| 82 | 11% | 28% | |
| 83 | 7% | 18% | |
| 84 | 4% | 10% | |
| 85 | 3% | 6% | |
| 86 | 1.5% | 3% | Last Result |
| 87 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 88 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 89 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 63 | 0.7% | 99.2% | |
| 64 | 2% | 98% | |
| 65 | 3% | 96% | |
| 66 | 4% | 93% | Last Result |
| 67 | 10% | 88% | |
| 68 | 7% | 78% | |
| 69 | 13% | 71% | |
| 70 | 15% | 58% | Median |
| 71 | 7% | 43% | |
| 72 | 12% | 36% | |
| 73 | 9% | 24% | |
| 74 | 4% | 15% | |
| 75 | 6% | 11% | |
| 76 | 3% | 5% | |
| 77 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 78 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 52 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 53 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 54 | 3% | 97% | |
| 55 | 5% | 95% | |
| 56 | 7% | 89% | |
| 57 | 11% | 83% | |
| 58 | 14% | 72% | |
| 59 | 11% | 58% | Median |
| 60 | 14% | 48% | |
| 61 | 9% | 34% | |
| 62 | 10% | 25% | |
| 63 | 6% | 15% | |
| 64 | 4% | 9% | |
| 65 | 2% | 5% | |
| 66 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 67 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 44 | 1.4% | 98.9% | |
| 45 | 4% | 97% | |
| 46 | 5% | 94% | |
| 47 | 9% | 89% | |
| 48 | 10% | 80% | |
| 49 | 14% | 70% | |
| 50 | 13% | 56% | Median |
| 51 | 12% | 43% | |
| 52 | 12% | 31% | |
| 53 | 7% | 19% | |
| 54 | 5% | 12% | |
| 55 | 3% | 7% | |
| 56 | 2% | 3% | |
| 57 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 58 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: IFDD
- Commissioner(s): PULS 24
- Fieldwork period: 10–15 June 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 803
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.19%