Opinion Poll by OGM for KURIER, 22–24 June 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 33.0% 30.9–35.1% 30.3–35.8% 29.8–36.3% 28.8–37.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 25.0% 23.1–27.0% 22.5–27.6% 22.1–28.1% 21.2–29.1%
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 18.0% 16.3–19.8% 15.9–20.3% 15.5–20.8% 14.7–21.7%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 11.0% 9.7–12.5% 9.3–13.0% 9.0–13.4% 8.4–14.1%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 11.0% 9.7–12.5% 9.3–13.0% 9.0–13.4% 8.4–14.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 62 58–66 57–67 56–68 54–70
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 47 43–50 42–52 41–53 40–54
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 34 30–37 29–38 29–39 27–40
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 21 17–22 17–23 17–25 17–26
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 20 18–23 17–24 16–25 15–26

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.6% 99.7%  
55 1.2% 99.1%  
56 2% 98%  
57 4% 96%  
58 7% 92%  
59 9% 85%  
60 11% 77%  
61 12% 66%  
62 12% 53% Median
63 11% 41%  
64 10% 29%  
65 8% 20%  
66 5% 12%  
67 3% 7%  
68 2% 4%  
69 0.9% 2%  
70 0.5% 0.8%  
71 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 0.8% 99.5% Last Result
41 2% 98.7%  
42 4% 97%  
43 6% 93%  
44 9% 87%  
45 12% 78%  
46 13% 66%  
47 14% 53% Median
48 12% 39%  
49 10% 27%  
50 7% 17%  
51 5% 10%  
52 3% 5%  
53 1.4% 3%  
54 0.6% 1.1%  
55 0.3% 0.4%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.5% 99.8%  
28 1.3% 99.3%  
29 3% 98%  
30 6% 95%  
31 10% 89% Last Result
32 14% 79%  
33 15% 65%  
34 15% 50% Median
35 13% 36%  
36 10% 22%  
37 6% 13%  
38 4% 7%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.8% 1.3%  
41 0.3% 0.5%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0% 99.8% Last Result
16 0% 99.8%  
17 10% 99.8%  
18 22% 90%  
19 1.1% 68%  
20 0.2% 67%  
21 28% 67% Median
22 33% 38%  
23 0.8% 5%  
24 0% 5%  
25 3% 5%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.5% 99.9%  
16 2% 99.4%  
17 5% 97%  
18 10% 92%  
19 16% 82%  
20 20% 66% Median
21 17% 46%  
22 13% 29%  
23 8% 16%  
24 5% 8%  
25 2% 3%  
26 0.7% 1.1% Last Result
27 0.2% 0.3%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 111 109 100% 104–113 103–114 102–115 100–117
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 112 103 100% 98–107 97–108 96–109 94–111
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 102 95 88% 91–100 90–101 89–102 87–104
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 81 88 12% 83–92 82–93 81–94 79–96
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 82 0.3% 78–86 77–88 76–89 74–91
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 82 0.2% 78–86 77–88 76–89 74–91
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 71 80 0% 76–84 75–86 74–87 72–89
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 67 0% 63–71 62–72 61–74 59–76
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 62 0% 58–66 57–67 56–68 54–70
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 47 0% 43–50 42–52 41–53 40–54

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0.1% 100%  
99 0.2% 99.9%  
100 0.4% 99.7%  
101 0.9% 99.3%  
102 2% 98%  
103 3% 97%  
104 5% 94%  
105 7% 89%  
106 9% 82%  
107 11% 73%  
108 12% 62%  
109 12% 50% Median
110 11% 39%  
111 10% 28% Last Result
112 7% 18%  
113 5% 11%  
114 3% 7%  
115 2% 3%  
116 0.9% 2%  
117 0.4% 0.7%  
118 0.2% 0.3%  
119 0.1% 0.1%  
120 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0.1% 100% Majority
93 0.2% 99.9%  
94 0.4% 99.7%  
95 0.8% 99.3%  
96 2% 98%  
97 3% 97%  
98 4% 94%  
99 7% 90%  
100 7% 83%  
101 14% 76%  
102 9% 62%  
103 14% 53% Median
104 10% 39%  
105 10% 30%  
106 7% 19%  
107 5% 12%  
108 4% 7%  
109 2% 4%  
110 1.0% 2%  
111 0.4% 0.8%  
112 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
113 0.1% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9%  
86 0.2% 99.9%  
87 0.5% 99.6%  
88 0.9% 99.1%  
89 2% 98%  
90 3% 96%  
91 5% 93%  
92 7% 88% Majority
93 9% 81%  
94 11% 71%  
95 11% 60%  
96 12% 49% Median
97 11% 37%  
98 8% 26%  
99 7% 17%  
100 5% 11%  
101 3% 6%  
102 2% 3% Last Result
103 0.8% 2%  
104 0.4% 0.7%  
105 0.2% 0.3%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.2% 99.9%  
79 0.5% 99.7%  
80 0.8% 99.2%  
81 2% 98% Last Result
82 3% 97%  
83 5% 94%  
84 7% 89%  
85 8% 82%  
86 11% 74%  
87 12% 63%  
88 11% 51% Median
89 11% 40%  
90 9% 29%  
91 7% 19%  
92 5% 12% Majority
93 3% 7%  
94 2% 4%  
95 0.9% 2%  
96 0.5% 0.9%  
97 0.2% 0.4%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.3% 99.9%  
74 0.5% 99.6%  
75 1.3% 99.1%  
76 2% 98%  
77 3% 96%  
78 5% 92%  
79 8% 88%  
80 11% 79%  
81 11% 69%  
82 12% 58% Median
83 11% 46%  
84 11% 36%  
85 9% 24%  
86 7% 16%  
87 4% 9%  
88 2% 5%  
89 1.4% 3%  
90 0.9% 2%  
91 0.4% 0.6%  
92 0.2% 0.3% Majority
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.8%  
74 0.6% 99.6%  
75 1.1% 99.0%  
76 2% 98%  
77 4% 96%  
78 5% 92%  
79 7% 87%  
80 9% 80%  
81 11% 70%  
82 12% 59%  
83 12% 47% Median
84 10% 35%  
85 9% 25%  
86 7% 17% Last Result
87 4% 10%  
88 3% 5%  
89 1.5% 3%  
90 0.7% 1.4%  
91 0.4% 0.6%  
92 0.2% 0.2% Majority
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
72 0.5% 99.6%  
73 1.0% 99.2%  
74 2% 98%  
75 4% 96%  
76 5% 93%  
77 7% 87%  
78 10% 80%  
79 10% 70%  
80 14% 61%  
81 9% 47% Median
82 14% 38%  
83 7% 24%  
84 7% 17%  
85 4% 10%  
86 3% 6%  
87 1.5% 3%  
88 0.8% 2%  
89 0.4% 0.7%  
90 0.2% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0% Majority

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 0.5% 99.7%  
60 1.0% 99.2%  
61 2% 98%  
62 3% 96%  
63 6% 93%  
64 7% 87%  
65 11% 80%  
66 11% 69% Last Result
67 13% 58% Median
68 12% 45%  
69 10% 33%  
70 8% 23%  
71 6% 15%  
72 4% 9%  
73 2% 5%  
74 1.4% 3%  
75 0.6% 1.2%  
76 0.3% 0.5%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.6% 99.7%  
55 1.2% 99.1%  
56 2% 98%  
57 4% 96%  
58 7% 92%  
59 9% 85%  
60 11% 77%  
61 12% 66%  
62 12% 53% Median
63 11% 41%  
64 10% 29%  
65 8% 20%  
66 5% 12%  
67 3% 7%  
68 2% 4%  
69 0.9% 2%  
70 0.5% 0.8%  
71 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 0.8% 99.5% Last Result
41 2% 98.7%  
42 4% 97%  
43 6% 93%  
44 9% 87%  
45 12% 78%  
46 13% 66%  
47 14% 53% Median
48 12% 39%  
49 10% 27%  
50 7% 17%  
51 5% 10%  
52 3% 5%  
53 1.4% 3%  
54 0.6% 1.1%  
55 0.3% 0.4%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations