Opinion Poll by Peter Hajek, 21–24 June 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 34.0% 31.9–36.2% 31.3–36.8% 30.8–37.4% 29.8–38.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 23.0% 21.2–25.0% 20.7–25.6% 20.2–26.0% 19.4–27.0%
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 18.0% 16.4–19.8% 15.9–20.4% 15.5–20.8% 14.7–21.7%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 12.0% 10.6–13.6% 10.2–14.1% 9.9–14.4% 9.3–15.2%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 11.0% 9.7–12.5% 9.3–13.0% 9.0–13.4% 8.4–14.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 64 60–68 59–69 58–70 56–72
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 43 39–47 38–48 38–49 36–50
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 34 30–37 29–38 29–39 27–40
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 22 20–25 19–26 18–27 17–28
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 20 18–23 17–24 17–25 15–26

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.3% 99.9%  
56 0.6% 99.6%  
57 1.3% 99.0%  
58 2% 98%  
59 4% 95%  
60 7% 91%  
61 9% 84%  
62 11% 75%  
63 12% 65%  
64 13% 52% Median
65 11% 39%  
66 9% 28%  
67 7% 19%  
68 5% 11%  
69 3% 6%  
70 2% 3%  
71 0.9% 2% Last Result
72 0.4% 0.7%  
73 0.2% 0.3%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.6% 99.7%  
37 1.4% 99.2%  
38 3% 98%  
39 5% 95%  
40 8% 90% Last Result
41 11% 81%  
42 14% 70%  
43 15% 56% Median
44 13% 42%  
45 11% 29%  
46 8% 18%  
47 5% 11%  
48 3% 6%  
49 1.5% 3%  
50 0.7% 1.2%  
51 0.3% 0.5%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.5% 99.8%  
28 1.4% 99.3%  
29 3% 98%  
30 6% 95%  
31 10% 89% Last Result
32 14% 79%  
33 15% 66%  
34 15% 51% Median
35 13% 36%  
36 10% 22%  
37 6% 13%  
38 3% 7%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.8% 1.3%  
41 0.3% 0.5%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100% Last Result
16 0.2% 100%  
17 0.7% 99.8%  
18 3% 99.1%  
19 6% 97%  
20 11% 91%  
21 16% 80%  
22 18% 64% Median
23 17% 45%  
24 13% 28%  
25 8% 15%  
26 4% 7%  
27 2% 3%  
28 0.8% 1.1%  
29 0.3% 0.4%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.5% 99.9%  
16 2% 99.4%  
17 5% 98%  
18 10% 92%  
19 16% 82%  
20 19% 66% Median
21 18% 47%  
22 14% 30%  
23 9% 16%  
24 4% 7%  
25 2% 3%  
26 0.7% 1.0% Last Result
27 0.2% 0.3%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 112 106 100% 102–111 101–112 100–113 98–115
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 111 107 100% 102–111 101–112 100–113 98–115
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 102 97 96% 93–102 92–103 91–104 89–106
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 86 5% 82–90 80–91 80–92 77–95
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 81 86 4% 81–90 80–91 79–92 77–94
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 84 1.3% 80–88 79–90 78–91 76–93
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 71 77 0% 72–81 71–82 70–83 68–85
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 64 0% 60–68 59–69 58–70 56–72
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 63 0% 59–67 58–69 57–70 55–72
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 43 0% 39–47 38–48 38–49 36–50

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0.1% 100%  
97 0.2% 99.9%  
98 0.5% 99.7%  
99 1.0% 99.2%  
100 2% 98%  
101 3% 96%  
102 5% 93%  
103 7% 88%  
104 9% 81%  
105 11% 72%  
106 12% 61% Median
107 12% 49%  
108 11% 37%  
109 9% 26%  
110 7% 17%  
111 5% 11%  
112 3% 6% Last Result
113 2% 3%  
114 0.8% 1.5%  
115 0.4% 0.6%  
116 0.2% 0.2%  
117 0.1% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0.1% 100%  
97 0.2% 99.9%  
98 0.4% 99.7%  
99 0.8% 99.3%  
100 2% 98.5%  
101 3% 97%  
102 4% 94%  
103 7% 90%  
104 8% 83%  
105 11% 75%  
106 11% 64%  
107 12% 53% Median
108 12% 40%  
109 9% 29%  
110 8% 20%  
111 5% 12% Last Result
112 3% 7%  
113 2% 4%  
114 1.0% 2%  
115 0.5% 0.8%  
116 0.2% 0.3%  
117 0.1% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.3% 99.8%  
89 0.5% 99.6%  
90 1.1% 99.1%  
91 2% 98%  
92 3% 96% Majority
93 5% 93%  
94 7% 87%  
95 9% 80%  
96 11% 71%  
97 12% 59%  
98 12% 47% Median
99 11% 36%  
100 9% 25%  
101 6% 16%  
102 4% 10% Last Result
103 3% 6%  
104 2% 3%  
105 0.8% 1.4%  
106 0.4% 0.6%  
107 0.2% 0.3%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.3% 99.8%  
78 0.6% 99.5%  
79 1.3% 98.9%  
80 3% 98%  
81 4% 95%  
82 5% 91%  
83 9% 86%  
84 9% 77%  
85 11% 67%  
86 13% 57% Last Result, Median
87 11% 43%  
88 9% 32%  
89 9% 23%  
90 6% 14%  
91 3% 8%  
92 3% 5% Majority
93 1.4% 2%  
94 0.6% 1.1%  
95 0.3% 0.5%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.2% 99.9%  
77 0.4% 99.7%  
78 0.8% 99.4%  
79 2% 98.6%  
80 3% 97%  
81 4% 94% Last Result
82 6% 90%  
83 9% 84%  
84 11% 75%  
85 12% 64% Median
86 12% 52%  
87 11% 41%  
88 9% 29%  
89 7% 20%  
90 5% 12%  
91 3% 7%  
92 2% 4% Majority
93 1.1% 2%  
94 0.5% 0.9%  
95 0.2% 0.4%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.3% 99.8%  
76 0.6% 99.6%  
77 1.2% 99.0%  
78 2% 98%  
79 4% 96%  
80 6% 92%  
81 8% 86%  
82 10% 79%  
83 11% 69%  
84 12% 57% Median
85 12% 45%  
86 10% 34%  
87 8% 23%  
88 6% 15%  
89 4% 9%  
90 2% 5%  
91 1.4% 3%  
92 0.7% 1.3% Majority
93 0.3% 0.5%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.4% 99.8%  
69 0.8% 99.4%  
70 2% 98.5%  
71 3% 97% Last Result
72 5% 94%  
73 7% 89%  
74 9% 83%  
75 11% 74%  
76 12% 63%  
77 12% 51% Median
78 11% 39%  
79 9% 27%  
80 7% 19%  
81 5% 12%  
82 3% 7%  
83 2% 4%  
84 1.0% 2%  
85 0.4% 0.8%  
86 0.2% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.3% 99.9%  
56 0.6% 99.6%  
57 1.3% 99.0%  
58 2% 98%  
59 4% 95%  
60 7% 91%  
61 9% 84%  
62 11% 75%  
63 12% 65%  
64 13% 52% Median
65 11% 39%  
66 9% 28%  
67 7% 19%  
68 5% 11%  
69 3% 6%  
70 2% 3%  
71 0.9% 2% Last Result
72 0.4% 0.7%  
73 0.2% 0.3%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.3% 99.8%  
56 0.8% 99.5%  
57 2% 98.7%  
58 3% 97%  
59 5% 94%  
60 7% 89%  
61 9% 82%  
62 12% 73%  
63 13% 61% Median
64 13% 49%  
65 11% 36%  
66 9% 25% Last Result
67 6% 16%  
68 5% 10%  
69 3% 5%  
70 2% 3%  
71 0.7% 1.3%  
72 0.4% 0.6%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.6% 99.7%  
37 1.4% 99.2%  
38 3% 98%  
39 5% 95%  
40 8% 90% Last Result
41 11% 81%  
42 14% 70%  
43 15% 56% Median
44 13% 42%  
45 11% 29%  
46 8% 18%  
47 5% 11%  
48 3% 6%  
49 1.5% 3%  
50 0.7% 1.2%  
51 0.3% 0.5%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations