Opinion Poll by Unique Research for Heute, 28 June–1 July 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 35.0% 32.9–37.2% 32.3–37.8% 31.8–38.4% 30.8–39.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 22.0% 20.2–24.0% 19.7–24.5% 19.3–25.0% 18.4–26.0%
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 17.0% 15.4–18.8% 14.9–19.3% 14.6–19.8% 13.8–20.7%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 13.0% 11.6–14.6% 11.2–15.1% 10.8–15.5% 10.2–16.3%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 12.0% 10.6–13.6% 10.2–14.1% 9.9–14.4% 9.3–15.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 65 61–69 60–70 59–71 57–73
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 41 37–44 36–45 35–46 34–48
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 31 28–35 27–36 27–36 25–38
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 24 21–27 20–28 20–28 18–30
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 22 19–25 19–26 18–26 17–28

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.5% 99.6%  
58 1.2% 99.2%  
59 2% 98%  
60 3% 96%  
61 6% 93%  
62 8% 86%  
63 12% 79%  
64 12% 66%  
65 12% 54% Median
66 13% 42%  
67 9% 29%  
68 8% 20%  
69 5% 13%  
70 4% 7%  
71 2% 4% Last Result
72 0.9% 2%  
73 0.6% 1.0%  
74 0.3% 0.4%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 0.6% 99.7%  
35 2% 99.1%  
36 3% 97%  
37 6% 94%  
38 10% 88%  
39 12% 79%  
40 15% 67% Last Result
41 15% 52% Median
42 12% 37%  
43 11% 26%  
44 7% 15%  
45 4% 8%  
46 2% 4%  
47 1.2% 2%  
48 0.4% 0.7%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.6% 99.8%  
26 1.3% 99.3%  
27 3% 98%  
28 6% 94%  
29 11% 88%  
30 11% 77%  
31 18% 66% Last Result, Median
32 15% 48%  
33 12% 32%  
34 9% 20%  
35 5% 11%  
36 3% 5%  
37 1.4% 2%  
38 0.7% 1.0%  
39 0.2% 0.3%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.4% 99.9%  
19 1.3% 99.5%  
20 5% 98%  
21 7% 94%  
22 13% 87%  
23 15% 73%  
24 20% 58% Median
25 14% 38%  
26 12% 24% Last Result
27 6% 12%  
28 4% 6%  
29 1.3% 2%  
30 0.6% 0.9%  
31 0.2% 0.3%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100% Last Result
16 0.3% 100%  
17 0.8% 99.7%  
18 3% 98.9%  
19 8% 95%  
20 11% 88%  
21 18% 77%  
22 17% 59% Median
23 18% 42%  
24 11% 24%  
25 7% 13%  
26 4% 6%  
27 1.2% 2%  
28 0.7% 0.9%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 112 111 100% 107–115 106–116 104–117 103–119
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 111 106 100% 101–110 100–111 99–112 97–114
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 102 96 92% 92–100 91–102 90–103 88–105
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 89 20% 85–93 83–94 82–95 81–97
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 87 8% 83–91 81–92 80–94 79–95
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 81 87 8% 83–91 81–92 80–93 78–95
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 71 72 0% 68–76 67–77 66–79 64–80
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 64 0% 61–69 59–70 59–71 57–73
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 65 0% 61–69 60–70 59–71 57–73
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 41 0% 37–44 36–45 35–46 34–48

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0.1% 100%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.3% 99.8%  
103 0.6% 99.5%  
104 1.4% 98.9%  
105 2% 97%  
106 4% 95%  
107 6% 91%  
108 8% 86%  
109 10% 77%  
110 12% 67%  
111 14% 55% Median
112 11% 41% Last Result
113 10% 30%  
114 8% 21%  
115 5% 13%  
116 4% 8%  
117 2% 4%  
118 1.0% 2%  
119 0.5% 0.9%  
120 0.2% 0.4%  
121 0.1% 0.1%  
122 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0.1% 100%  
96 0.2% 99.9%  
97 0.3% 99.7%  
98 0.8% 99.4%  
99 1.5% 98.6%  
100 3% 97%  
101 5% 94%  
102 6% 89%  
103 9% 83%  
104 13% 74%  
105 11% 61%  
106 11% 51% Median
107 13% 40%  
108 8% 27%  
109 8% 19%  
110 5% 11%  
111 3% 6% Last Result
112 2% 3%  
113 1.0% 2%  
114 0.4% 0.7%  
115 0.2% 0.3%  
116 0.1% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100%  
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.2% 99.8%  
88 0.5% 99.6%  
89 1.2% 99.1%  
90 2% 98%  
91 4% 96%  
92 4% 92% Majority
93 8% 88%  
94 9% 81%  
95 11% 71%  
96 14% 60% Median
97 10% 47%  
98 13% 37%  
99 7% 24%  
100 8% 17%  
101 4% 10%  
102 3% 6% Last Result
103 2% 3%  
104 0.6% 1.3%  
105 0.4% 0.7%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.2% 99.9%  
80 0.2% 99.8%  
81 0.8% 99.5%  
82 1.4% 98.7%  
83 3% 97%  
84 4% 94%  
85 6% 91%  
86 8% 85%  
87 9% 76%  
88 15% 67%  
89 11% 53% Median
90 12% 41%  
91 9% 30%  
92 7% 20% Majority
93 6% 14%  
94 3% 8%  
95 2% 4%  
96 1.0% 2%  
97 0.6% 1.0% Last Result
98 0.2% 0.4%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.3% 99.8%  
79 0.7% 99.6%  
80 1.4% 98.9%  
81 3% 97%  
82 4% 95%  
83 5% 91%  
84 6% 86%  
85 12% 79%  
86 14% 67% Last Result
87 11% 54% Median
88 11% 43%  
89 9% 32%  
90 9% 23%  
91 5% 13%  
92 4% 8% Majority
93 2% 5%  
94 1.3% 3%  
95 0.8% 1.2%  
96 0.3% 0.5%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.4% 99.8%  
79 0.6% 99.3%  
80 2% 98.7%  
81 3% 97% Last Result
82 4% 94%  
83 8% 90%  
84 7% 83%  
85 13% 76%  
86 10% 63%  
87 14% 53% Median
88 11% 40%  
89 9% 29%  
90 8% 19%  
91 4% 12%  
92 4% 8% Majority
93 2% 4%  
94 1.2% 2%  
95 0.5% 0.9%  
96 0.2% 0.4%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.5% 99.6%  
65 1.0% 99.1%  
66 2% 98%  
67 4% 96%  
68 5% 92%  
69 8% 87%  
70 10% 79%  
71 11% 70% Last Result
72 14% 59% Median
73 12% 45%  
74 10% 33%  
75 8% 23%  
76 6% 14%  
77 4% 9%  
78 2% 5%  
79 1.4% 3%  
80 0.6% 1.1%  
81 0.3% 0.5%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.3% 99.8%  
57 0.5% 99.5%  
58 1.3% 99.0%  
59 3% 98%  
60 4% 95%  
61 7% 91%  
62 9% 84%  
63 9% 75%  
64 16% 66%  
65 11% 49% Median
66 11% 39% Last Result
67 10% 28%  
68 7% 18%  
69 4% 10%  
70 3% 6%  
71 2% 3%  
72 0.9% 2%  
73 0.5% 0.7%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.5% 99.6%  
58 1.2% 99.2%  
59 2% 98%  
60 3% 96%  
61 6% 93%  
62 8% 86%  
63 12% 79%  
64 12% 66%  
65 12% 54% Median
66 13% 42%  
67 9% 29%  
68 8% 20%  
69 5% 13%  
70 4% 7%  
71 2% 4% Last Result
72 0.9% 2%  
73 0.6% 1.0%  
74 0.3% 0.4%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 0.6% 99.7%  
35 2% 99.1%  
36 3% 97%  
37 6% 94%  
38 10% 88%  
39 12% 79%  
40 15% 67% Last Result
41 15% 52% Median
42 12% 37%  
43 11% 26%  
44 7% 15%  
45 4% 8%  
46 2% 4%  
47 1.2% 2%  
48 0.4% 0.7%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations