Opinion Poll by Unique Research for profil, 5–8 July 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 34.0% 31.9–36.2% 31.3–36.8% 30.8–37.4% 29.8–38.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 22.0% 20.2–24.0% 19.7–24.5% 19.3–25.0% 18.4–26.0%
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 17.0% 15.4–18.8% 14.9–19.3% 14.6–19.8% 13.8–20.7%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 12.0% 10.6–13.6% 10.2–14.1% 9.9–14.4% 9.3–15.2%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 12.0% 10.6–13.6% 10.2–14.1% 9.9–14.4% 9.3–15.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 64 60–68 59–69 58–71 56–73
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 41 38–45 37–46 36–47 34–49
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 32 29–35 28–36 27–37 26–39
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 23 20–24 20–27 18–27 17–27
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 22 20–25 19–26 18–27 17–28

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.5% 99.6%  
57 1.1% 99.1%  
58 2% 98%  
59 4% 96%  
60 6% 92%  
61 8% 87%  
62 10% 79%  
63 12% 69%  
64 12% 57% Median
65 12% 45%  
66 10% 33%  
67 8% 23%  
68 6% 15%  
69 4% 9%  
70 2% 5%  
71 1.3% 3% Last Result
72 0.6% 1.2%  
73 0.3% 0.5%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.4% 99.8%  
35 0.9% 99.4%  
36 2% 98%  
37 4% 96%  
38 7% 92%  
39 10% 85%  
40 13% 75% Last Result
41 14% 61% Median
42 13% 48%  
43 12% 34%  
44 9% 23%  
45 6% 13%  
46 4% 8%  
47 2% 4%  
48 0.9% 2%  
49 0.4% 0.7%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.3% 99.9%  
26 0.9% 99.6%  
27 2% 98.7%  
28 5% 96%  
29 8% 91%  
30 12% 83%  
31 15% 71% Last Result
32 15% 56% Median
33 14% 40%  
34 11% 27%  
35 8% 16%  
36 4% 8%  
37 2% 4%  
38 1.0% 2%  
39 0.4% 0.6%  
40 0.2% 0.2%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100% Last Result
16 0% 100%  
17 0.9% 100%  
18 4% 99.1%  
19 0.2% 95%  
20 10% 95%  
21 31% 85%  
22 0.7% 54%  
23 12% 53% Median
24 31% 41%  
25 0.5% 10%  
26 3% 9%  
27 6% 6%  
28 0.1% 0.5%  
29 0.1% 0.4%  
30 0.3% 0.3%  
31 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.7% 99.8%  
18 2% 99.2%  
19 5% 97%  
20 10% 92%  
21 15% 81%  
22 18% 66% Median
23 17% 48%  
24 13% 31%  
25 9% 18%  
26 5% 9% Last Result
27 2% 4%  
28 1.0% 1.5%  
29 0.3% 0.5%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 112 109 100% 105–113 103–115 102–116 100–118
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 111 106 100% 101–110 100–111 98–112 96–114
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 102 96 90% 92–100 90–102 89–103 87–105
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 87 7% 82–91 81–92 80–93 78–95
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 87 8% 82–91 81–92 80–93 78–95
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 81 86 7% 82–91 81–92 79–93 77–95
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 71 73 0% 69–78 68–79 67–80 65–82
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 64 0% 60–68 59–69 58–71 56–73
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 64 0% 60–68 59–69 58–70 56–72
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 41 0% 38–45 37–46 36–47 34–49

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0.1% 100%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.3% 99.8%  
100 0.5% 99.5%  
101 0.9% 99.0%  
102 2% 98%  
103 2% 97%  
104 4% 94%  
105 5% 90%  
106 7% 85%  
107 9% 78%  
108 11% 69%  
109 11% 57% Median
110 12% 46%  
111 10% 35%  
112 9% 25% Last Result
113 6% 16%  
114 4% 10%  
115 3% 5%  
116 2% 3%  
117 0.7% 1.3%  
118 0.3% 0.6%  
119 0.1% 0.2%  
120 0.1% 0.1%  
121 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.2% 99.9%  
96 0.3% 99.7%  
97 0.6% 99.3%  
98 1.2% 98.7%  
99 2% 97%  
100 3% 96%  
101 5% 92%  
102 7% 88%  
103 8% 81%  
104 11% 72%  
105 11% 62% Median
106 12% 51%  
107 10% 39%  
108 9% 29%  
109 7% 20%  
110 5% 13%  
111 3% 7% Last Result
112 2% 4%  
113 1.2% 2%  
114 0.5% 0.9%  
115 0.3% 0.4%  
116 0.1% 0.1%  
117 0% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9%  
86 0.2% 99.8%  
87 0.4% 99.6%  
88 0.9% 99.2%  
89 1.5% 98%  
90 2% 97%  
91 4% 94%  
92 6% 90% Majority
93 7% 85%  
94 10% 77%  
95 11% 68%  
96 12% 57% Median
97 11% 45%  
98 10% 34%  
99 8% 24%  
100 6% 16%  
101 4% 10%  
102 3% 6% Last Result
103 1.5% 3%  
104 0.8% 1.5%  
105 0.4% 0.6%  
106 0.2% 0.3%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.3% 99.8%  
78 0.6% 99.5%  
79 1.1% 98.9%  
80 2% 98%  
81 3% 96%  
82 5% 93%  
83 7% 88%  
84 8% 81%  
85 10% 73%  
86 11% 63% Median
87 12% 51%  
88 10% 39%  
89 9% 29%  
90 7% 20%  
91 5% 13%  
92 3% 7% Majority
93 2% 4%  
94 1.1% 2%  
95 0.6% 1.0%  
96 0.3% 0.4%  
97 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.3% 99.8%  
78 0.6% 99.5%  
79 1.1% 98.9%  
80 2% 98%  
81 3% 96%  
82 5% 93%  
83 7% 88%  
84 8% 82%  
85 10% 73%  
86 11% 63% Last Result
87 12% 52% Median
88 11% 40%  
89 10% 30%  
90 7% 20%  
91 5% 13%  
92 4% 8% Majority
93 2% 4%  
94 1.1% 2%  
95 0.6% 1.0%  
96 0.3% 0.4%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.2% 99.9%  
77 0.3% 99.7%  
78 0.7% 99.4%  
79 1.3% 98.7%  
80 2% 97%  
81 4% 95% Last Result
82 5% 92%  
83 7% 87%  
84 9% 80%  
85 11% 71%  
86 11% 60% Median
87 12% 49%  
88 10% 37%  
89 9% 27%  
90 7% 18%  
91 5% 11%  
92 3% 7% Majority
93 2% 4%  
94 0.9% 2%  
95 0.5% 0.8%  
96 0.2% 0.3%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.3% 99.8%  
65 0.5% 99.6%  
66 1.1% 99.0%  
67 2% 98%  
68 3% 96%  
69 5% 92%  
70 7% 87%  
71 9% 80% Last Result
72 11% 70%  
73 12% 60% Median
74 11% 48%  
75 11% 36%  
76 9% 26%  
77 6% 17%  
78 5% 11%  
79 3% 6%  
80 2% 3%  
81 0.8% 2%  
82 0.4% 0.8%  
83 0.2% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.5% 99.6%  
57 1.1% 99.1%  
58 2% 98%  
59 4% 96%  
60 6% 92%  
61 8% 87%  
62 10% 79%  
63 12% 69%  
64 12% 57% Median
65 12% 45%  
66 10% 33%  
67 8% 23%  
68 6% 15%  
69 4% 9%  
70 2% 5%  
71 1.3% 3% Last Result
72 0.6% 1.2%  
73 0.3% 0.5%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.3% 99.8%  
56 0.7% 99.5%  
57 1.3% 98.9%  
58 2% 98%  
59 4% 95%  
60 6% 91%  
61 8% 85%  
62 11% 77%  
63 12% 66% Median
64 13% 54%  
65 11% 42%  
66 10% 31% Last Result
67 8% 21%  
68 5% 13%  
69 4% 8%  
70 2% 4%  
71 1.2% 2%  
72 0.5% 1.0%  
73 0.3% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.4% 99.8%  
35 0.9% 99.4%  
36 2% 98%  
37 4% 96%  
38 7% 92%  
39 10% 85%  
40 13% 75% Last Result
41 14% 61% Median
42 13% 48%  
43 12% 34%  
44 9% 23%  
45 6% 13%  
46 4% 8%  
47 2% 4%  
48 0.9% 2%  
49 0.4% 0.7%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations