Opinion Poll by IFDD for PULS 24, 15–21 July 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 35.0% 32.9–37.2% 32.3–37.8% 31.8–38.4% 30.8–39.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 22.0% 20.2–24.0% 19.7–24.5% 19.3–25.0% 18.4–26.0%
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 19.0% 17.3–20.9% 16.8–21.4% 16.4–21.9% 15.7–22.8%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 12.0% 10.6–13.6% 10.2–14.1% 9.9–14.4% 9.3–15.2%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 11.0% 9.7–12.5% 9.3–13.0% 9.0–13.4% 8.4–14.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 65 61–69 60–70 59–71 57–73
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 41 37–44 36–45 35–46 34–48
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 35 32–38 31–39 30–40 29–42
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 22 19–25 19–26 18–26 17–28
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 20 18–23 17–24 16–24 15–26

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.5% 99.7%  
58 1.2% 99.2%  
59 2% 98%  
60 4% 96%  
61 6% 92%  
62 9% 86%  
63 11% 78%  
64 12% 67%  
65 12% 54% Median
66 12% 43%  
67 10% 30%  
68 8% 20%  
69 6% 13%  
70 3% 7%  
71 2% 4% Last Result
72 1.1% 2%  
73 0.5% 0.8%  
74 0.2% 0.4%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 0.7% 99.7%  
35 2% 99.0%  
36 3% 97%  
37 6% 94%  
38 10% 88%  
39 12% 78%  
40 13% 66% Last Result
41 14% 53% Median
42 14% 39%  
43 11% 25%  
44 7% 15%  
45 4% 8%  
46 2% 4%  
47 1.2% 2%  
48 0.5% 0.8%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.3% 99.9%  
29 0.8% 99.6%  
30 2% 98.8%  
31 4% 97% Last Result
32 8% 92%  
33 11% 84%  
34 14% 73%  
35 15% 59% Median
36 14% 43%  
37 12% 29%  
38 8% 18%  
39 5% 10%  
40 3% 5%  
41 1.3% 2%  
42 0.5% 0.9%  
43 0.2% 0.3%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100% Last Result
16 0.2% 100%  
17 1.0% 99.7%  
18 3% 98.8%  
19 7% 96%  
20 12% 89%  
21 17% 76%  
22 18% 59% Median
23 16% 41%  
24 12% 25%  
25 7% 13%  
26 4% 6%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.6% 0.8%  
29 0.2% 0.3%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.6% 99.9%  
16 2% 99.2%  
17 6% 97%  
18 11% 91%  
19 17% 79%  
20 19% 62% Median
21 18% 44%  
22 12% 26%  
23 8% 14%  
24 4% 6%  
25 2% 2%  
26 0.5% 0.8% Last Result
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 112 107 100% 103–111 102–113 101–114 99–115
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 111 106 100% 101–110 100–111 99–112 97–114
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 102 100 99.5% 96–104 95–105 94–106 92–108
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 87 8% 83–91 82–92 81–93 79–95
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 85 3% 81–89 80–91 79–92 77–94
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 81 83 0.5% 79–87 78–88 77–89 75–91
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 71 76 0% 72–80 70–81 69–82 68–84
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 65 0% 61–69 60–70 59–71 57–73
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 61 0% 57–65 56–66 55–67 53–69
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 41 0% 37–44 36–45 35–46 34–48

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0% 100%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.3% 99.9%  
99 0.5% 99.6%  
100 1.2% 99.1%  
101 2% 98%  
102 3% 96%  
103 6% 93%  
104 7% 87%  
105 10% 80%  
106 10% 69%  
107 13% 59% Median
108 12% 46%  
109 11% 34%  
110 8% 23%  
111 6% 16%  
112 4% 9% Last Result
113 3% 5%  
114 1.4% 3%  
115 0.6% 1.1%  
116 0.3% 0.5%  
117 0.1% 0.2%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0.1% 100%  
96 0.2% 99.9%  
97 0.4% 99.7%  
98 0.9% 99.3%  
99 2% 98%  
100 3% 97%  
101 5% 94%  
102 6% 89%  
103 10% 83%  
104 10% 74%  
105 12% 63%  
106 13% 51% Median
107 10% 39%  
108 10% 29%  
109 7% 19%  
110 5% 11%  
111 3% 7% Last Result
112 2% 3%  
113 1.0% 2%  
114 0.4% 0.7%  
115 0.2% 0.3%  
116 0.1% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0% 100%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.3% 99.8%  
92 0.6% 99.5% Majority
93 1.3% 98.9%  
94 2% 98%  
95 4% 95%  
96 6% 91%  
97 8% 86%  
98 10% 78%  
99 11% 68%  
100 12% 56% Median
101 12% 45%  
102 10% 33% Last Result
103 8% 22%  
104 6% 14%  
105 4% 9%  
106 2% 5%  
107 1.3% 2%  
108 0.6% 1.1%  
109 0.3% 0.5%  
110 0.1% 0.2%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.3% 99.8%  
79 0.7% 99.5%  
80 1.2% 98.9%  
81 2% 98%  
82 4% 95%  
83 5% 91%  
84 9% 86%  
85 9% 77%  
86 13% 68% Last Result
87 11% 55% Median
88 12% 44%  
89 10% 32%  
90 7% 22%  
91 6% 15%  
92 3% 8% Majority
93 3% 5%  
94 1.2% 2%  
95 0.7% 1.1%  
96 0.3% 0.5%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.3% 99.8%  
77 0.6% 99.6%  
78 1.1% 99.0%  
79 2% 98%  
80 4% 96%  
81 6% 92%  
82 8% 86%  
83 9% 78%  
84 12% 69%  
85 11% 57% Median
86 12% 45%  
87 10% 33%  
88 8% 23%  
89 6% 15%  
90 4% 9%  
91 3% 5%  
92 1.4% 3% Majority
93 0.7% 1.3%  
94 0.3% 0.6%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.3% 99.8%  
75 0.6% 99.5%  
76 1.3% 98.9%  
77 2% 98%  
78 4% 95%  
79 6% 91%  
80 8% 86%  
81 10% 78% Last Result
82 12% 67%  
83 12% 55% Median
84 11% 44%  
85 10% 32%  
86 8% 22%  
87 6% 14%  
88 4% 9%  
89 2% 5%  
90 1.3% 2%  
91 0.6% 1.1%  
92 0.3% 0.5% Majority
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.3% 99.8%  
68 0.6% 99.5%  
69 1.4% 98.9%  
70 3% 97%  
71 4% 95% Last Result
72 6% 91%  
73 8% 84%  
74 11% 77%  
75 12% 66%  
76 13% 54% Median
77 10% 41%  
78 10% 31%  
79 7% 20%  
80 6% 13%  
81 3% 7%  
82 2% 4%  
83 1.2% 2%  
84 0.5% 0.9%  
85 0.3% 0.4%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.5% 99.7%  
58 1.2% 99.2%  
59 2% 98%  
60 4% 96%  
61 6% 92%  
62 9% 86%  
63 11% 78%  
64 12% 67%  
65 12% 54% Median
66 12% 43%  
67 10% 30%  
68 8% 20%  
69 6% 13%  
70 3% 7%  
71 2% 4% Last Result
72 1.1% 2%  
73 0.5% 0.8%  
74 0.2% 0.4%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.5% 99.7%  
54 1.1% 99.3%  
55 2% 98%  
56 4% 96%  
57 6% 92%  
58 8% 86%  
59 11% 78%  
60 12% 67%  
61 13% 55% Median
62 12% 42%  
63 10% 31%  
64 8% 20%  
65 5% 12%  
66 3% 7% Last Result
67 2% 4%  
68 1.0% 2%  
69 0.5% 0.8%  
70 0.2% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 0.7% 99.7%  
35 2% 99.0%  
36 3% 97%  
37 6% 94%  
38 10% 88%  
39 12% 78%  
40 13% 66% Last Result
41 14% 53% Median
42 14% 39%  
43 11% 25%  
44 7% 15%  
45 4% 8%  
46 2% 4%  
47 1.2% 2%  
48 0.5% 0.8%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations