Opinion Poll by Unique Research for profil, 2–5 August 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 37.5% | 35.0% | 32.9–37.2% | 32.3–37.8% | 31.8–38.4% | 30.8–39.4% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 21.2% | 21.0% | 19.2–22.9% | 18.7–23.5% | 18.3–24.0% | 17.5–24.9% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 16.2% | 19.0% | 17.3–20.9% | 16.8–21.4% | 16.4–21.9% | 15.7–22.8% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 13.9% | 12.0% | 10.6–13.6% | 10.2–14.1% | 9.9–14.4% | 9.3–15.2% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 8.1% | 11.0% | 9.7–12.5% | 9.3–13.0% | 9.0–13.4% | 8.4–14.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 66 | 62–70 | 60–71 | 59–72 | 58–74 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 39 | 36–43 | 35–44 | 34–45 | 33–46 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 31 | 35 | 32–39 | 31–40 | 30–41 | 29–42 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 26 | 22 | 20–25 | 19–26 | 18–27 | 17–28 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 15 | 20 | 18–23 | 17–24 | 17–25 | 15–26 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 58 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 59 | 1.4% | 98.8% | |
| 60 | 3% | 97% | |
| 61 | 5% | 95% | |
| 62 | 7% | 90% | |
| 63 | 9% | 83% | |
| 64 | 11% | 74% | |
| 65 | 12% | 63% | |
| 66 | 13% | 51% | Median |
| 67 | 11% | 37% | |
| 68 | 9% | 27% | |
| 69 | 7% | 18% | |
| 70 | 5% | 11% | |
| 71 | 3% | 6% | Last Result |
| 72 | 2% | 3% | |
| 73 | 0.8% | 1.5% | |
| 74 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 75 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 1.0% | 99.5% | |
| 34 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 35 | 4% | 96% | |
| 36 | 8% | 92% | |
| 37 | 11% | 85% | |
| 38 | 14% | 73% | |
| 39 | 14% | 60% | Median |
| 40 | 13% | 45% | Last Result |
| 41 | 12% | 32% | |
| 42 | 9% | 20% | |
| 43 | 6% | 12% | |
| 44 | 3% | 6% | |
| 45 | 2% | 3% | |
| 46 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 47 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 30 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 31 | 3% | 97% | Last Result |
| 32 | 7% | 94% | |
| 33 | 10% | 87% | |
| 34 | 13% | 78% | |
| 35 | 16% | 64% | Median |
| 36 | 14% | 48% | |
| 37 | 13% | 34% | |
| 38 | 9% | 22% | |
| 39 | 6% | 12% | |
| 40 | 4% | 7% | |
| 41 | 2% | 3% | |
| 42 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 43 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 18 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 19 | 6% | 97% | |
| 20 | 11% | 91% | |
| 21 | 16% | 80% | |
| 22 | 19% | 64% | Median |
| 23 | 17% | 45% | |
| 24 | 13% | 28% | |
| 25 | 8% | 16% | |
| 26 | 4% | 7% | Last Result |
| 27 | 2% | 3% | |
| 28 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 29 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.5% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 16 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 17 | 5% | 98% | |
| 18 | 11% | 93% | |
| 19 | 16% | 82% | |
| 20 | 19% | 66% | Median |
| 21 | 18% | 47% | |
| 22 | 13% | 29% | |
| 23 | 9% | 16% | |
| 24 | 4% | 8% | |
| 25 | 2% | 3% | |
| 26 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 112 | 108 | 100% | 104–112 | 103–114 | 102–115 | 100–117 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 111 | 105 | 100% | 101–109 | 99–110 | 98–111 | 96–113 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 102 | 101 | 99.8% | 97–105 | 96–106 | 95–107 | 92–109 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 97 | 88 | 14% | 84–92 | 82–93 | 81–94 | 79–96 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 86 | 86 | 5% | 82–90 | 81–91 | 80–93 | 77–95 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 81 | 82 | 0.2% | 78–86 | 77–87 | 76–88 | 74–91 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 71 | 75 | 0% | 71–79 | 69–80 | 68–81 | 66–83 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 66 | 0% | 62–70 | 60–71 | 59–72 | 58–74 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 66 | 61 | 0% | 58–66 | 56–67 | 56–68 | 54–70 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 39 | 0% | 36–43 | 35–44 | 34–45 | 33–46 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 99 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 100 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 101 | 1.0% | 99.1% | |
| 102 | 2% | 98% | |
| 103 | 3% | 96% | |
| 104 | 5% | 93% | |
| 105 | 7% | 88% | |
| 106 | 10% | 80% | |
| 107 | 11% | 71% | |
| 108 | 12% | 59% | Median |
| 109 | 12% | 47% | |
| 110 | 11% | 36% | |
| 111 | 8% | 25% | |
| 112 | 7% | 16% | Last Result |
| 113 | 4% | 9% | |
| 114 | 3% | 5% | |
| 115 | 2% | 3% | |
| 116 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 117 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 94 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 96 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 97 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 98 | 1.5% | 98.7% | |
| 99 | 3% | 97% | |
| 100 | 4% | 95% | |
| 101 | 6% | 90% | |
| 102 | 8% | 84% | |
| 103 | 10% | 76% | |
| 104 | 12% | 65% | |
| 105 | 12% | 54% | Median |
| 106 | 11% | 42% | |
| 107 | 10% | 30% | |
| 108 | 8% | 20% | |
| 109 | 5% | 13% | |
| 110 | 3% | 7% | |
| 111 | 2% | 4% | Last Result |
| 112 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 113 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 114 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 92 | 0.3% | 99.8% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 94 | 1.2% | 98.9% | |
| 95 | 2% | 98% | |
| 96 | 4% | 95% | |
| 97 | 6% | 92% | |
| 98 | 8% | 86% | |
| 99 | 10% | 78% | |
| 100 | 11% | 68% | |
| 101 | 12% | 57% | Median |
| 102 | 12% | 45% | Last Result |
| 103 | 10% | 33% | |
| 104 | 8% | 23% | |
| 105 | 6% | 14% | |
| 106 | 4% | 9% | |
| 107 | 2% | 5% | |
| 108 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 109 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 110 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 77 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 79 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 80 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 81 | 1.4% | 98.7% | |
| 82 | 3% | 97% | |
| 83 | 4% | 95% | |
| 84 | 6% | 91% | |
| 85 | 8% | 84% | |
| 86 | 11% | 77% | |
| 87 | 12% | 66% | |
| 88 | 12% | 54% | Median |
| 89 | 12% | 42% | |
| 90 | 10% | 31% | |
| 91 | 7% | 21% | |
| 92 | 5% | 14% | Majority |
| 93 | 4% | 8% | |
| 94 | 2% | 4% | |
| 95 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 96 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 97 | 0.2% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 98 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 77 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 78 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 79 | 1.2% | 98.9% | |
| 80 | 3% | 98% | |
| 81 | 4% | 95% | |
| 82 | 6% | 91% | |
| 83 | 9% | 86% | |
| 84 | 10% | 77% | |
| 85 | 11% | 67% | |
| 86 | 13% | 56% | Last Result, Median |
| 87 | 11% | 43% | |
| 88 | 10% | 32% | |
| 89 | 8% | 22% | |
| 90 | 6% | 15% | |
| 91 | 3% | 8% | |
| 92 | 2% | 5% | Majority |
| 93 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 94 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 95 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 73 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 74 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 75 | 1.2% | 98.8% | |
| 76 | 2% | 98% | |
| 77 | 4% | 95% | |
| 78 | 6% | 91% | |
| 79 | 8% | 86% | |
| 80 | 10% | 77% | |
| 81 | 12% | 67% | Last Result, Median |
| 82 | 12% | 55% | |
| 83 | 11% | 43% | |
| 84 | 10% | 32% | |
| 85 | 8% | 22% | |
| 86 | 6% | 14% | |
| 87 | 4% | 8% | |
| 88 | 2% | 5% | |
| 89 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 90 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 91 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 67 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 68 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 69 | 3% | 97% | |
| 70 | 4% | 95% | |
| 71 | 7% | 91% | Last Result |
| 72 | 8% | 84% | |
| 73 | 11% | 75% | |
| 74 | 12% | 64% | Median |
| 75 | 12% | 52% | |
| 76 | 11% | 41% | |
| 77 | 10% | 29% | |
| 78 | 7% | 20% | |
| 79 | 5% | 12% | |
| 80 | 3% | 7% | |
| 81 | 2% | 4% | |
| 82 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 83 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 58 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 59 | 1.4% | 98.8% | |
| 60 | 3% | 97% | |
| 61 | 5% | 95% | |
| 62 | 7% | 90% | |
| 63 | 9% | 83% | |
| 64 | 11% | 74% | |
| 65 | 12% | 63% | |
| 66 | 13% | 51% | Median |
| 67 | 11% | 37% | |
| 68 | 9% | 27% | |
| 69 | 7% | 18% | |
| 70 | 5% | 11% | |
| 71 | 3% | 6% | Last Result |
| 72 | 2% | 3% | |
| 73 | 0.8% | 1.5% | |
| 74 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 75 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 54 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 55 | 1.3% | 98.9% | |
| 56 | 3% | 98% | |
| 57 | 5% | 95% | |
| 58 | 7% | 90% | |
| 59 | 10% | 84% | |
| 60 | 11% | 74% | |
| 61 | 14% | 63% | Median |
| 62 | 12% | 50% | |
| 63 | 11% | 38% | |
| 64 | 9% | 26% | |
| 65 | 7% | 17% | |
| 66 | 5% | 10% | Last Result |
| 67 | 3% | 6% | |
| 68 | 2% | 3% | |
| 69 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 70 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 1.0% | 99.5% | |
| 34 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 35 | 4% | 96% | |
| 36 | 8% | 92% | |
| 37 | 11% | 85% | |
| 38 | 14% | 73% | |
| 39 | 14% | 60% | Median |
| 40 | 13% | 45% | Last Result |
| 41 | 12% | 32% | |
| 42 | 9% | 20% | |
| 43 | 6% | 12% | |
| 44 | 3% | 6% | |
| 45 | 2% | 3% | |
| 46 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 47 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Unique Research
- Commissioner(s): profil
- Fieldwork period: 2–5 August 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 800
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.37%