Opinion Poll by Market for Der Standard, 6–11 August 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 31.1% 29.0–33.2% 28.4–33.8% 28.0–34.3% 27.0–35.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 25.0% 23.1–27.0% 22.6–27.6% 22.1–28.1% 21.2–29.1%
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 18.0% 16.4–19.8% 15.9–20.4% 15.5–20.8% 14.8–21.7%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 13.0% 11.6–14.7% 11.2–15.2% 10.9–15.6% 10.2–16.4%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 11.1% 9.8–12.6% 9.4–13.0% 9.1–13.4% 8.5–14.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 58 54–62 53–63 52–64 50–66
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 47 43–50 42–51 41–52 39–54
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 34 30–37 29–38 29–39 27–40
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 24 21–27 21–28 20–29 19–30
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 20 18–23 17–24 17–25 15–26

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.4% 99.8%  
51 0.9% 99.4%  
52 2% 98.5%  
53 3% 97%  
54 6% 93%  
55 8% 88%  
56 10% 80%  
57 12% 70%  
58 14% 57% Median
59 12% 44%  
60 10% 31%  
61 8% 21%  
62 6% 13%  
63 3% 7%  
64 2% 4%  
65 1.1% 2%  
66 0.5% 0.8%  
67 0.2% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.4% 99.8%  
40 0.9% 99.5% Last Result
41 2% 98.6%  
42 4% 97%  
43 6% 93%  
44 9% 87%  
45 12% 77%  
46 14% 65%  
47 14% 51% Median
48 12% 37%  
49 10% 25%  
50 7% 16%  
51 4% 9%  
52 3% 5%  
53 1.3% 2%  
54 0.6% 1.0%  
55 0.2% 0.4%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.5% 99.8%  
28 1.3% 99.4%  
29 3% 98%  
30 6% 95%  
31 10% 89% Last Result
32 13% 79%  
33 15% 66%  
34 16% 51% Median
35 12% 35%  
36 10% 23%  
37 6% 13%  
38 3% 6%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.7% 1.2%  
41 0.3% 0.5%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100%  
18 0.3% 99.9%  
19 1.0% 99.7%  
20 3% 98.7%  
21 6% 96%  
22 12% 89%  
23 16% 78%  
24 18% 62% Median
25 17% 44%  
26 12% 28% Last Result
27 8% 16%  
28 4% 8%  
29 2% 3%  
30 0.8% 1.2%  
31 0.3% 0.4%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.4% 99.9% Last Result
16 2% 99.5%  
17 5% 98%  
18 10% 93%  
19 16% 83%  
20 19% 68% Median
21 18% 49%  
22 14% 31%  
23 9% 17%  
24 5% 8%  
25 2% 3%  
26 0.8% 1.1%  
27 0.3% 0.3%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 111 105 100% 101–109 99–110 98–111 96–113
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 112 103 100% 99–107 97–108 96–109 94–111
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 81 91 48% 87–96 86–97 85–98 83–100
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 102 92 52% 87–96 86–97 85–98 83–100
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 82 0.3% 78–87 77–88 76–89 74–91
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 71 80 0% 76–84 75–86 74–87 72–89
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 79 0% 74–83 73–84 72–85 70–87
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 71 0% 67–75 66–76 65–77 63–79
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 58 0% 54–62 53–63 52–64 50–66
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 47 0% 43–50 42–51 41–52 39–54

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0.1% 100%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.4% 99.8%  
97 0.7% 99.3%  
98 2% 98.6%  
99 3% 97%  
100 4% 94%  
101 7% 90%  
102 8% 83%  
103 12% 75%  
104 11% 64%  
105 13% 53% Median
106 10% 40%  
107 10% 29%  
108 7% 19%  
109 5% 12%  
110 3% 7%  
111 2% 4% Last Result
112 1.1% 2%  
113 0.4% 0.8%  
114 0.2% 0.3%  
115 0.1% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0.1% 100% Majority
93 0.2% 99.9%  
94 0.4% 99.8%  
95 0.7% 99.4%  
96 1.4% 98.7%  
97 3% 97%  
98 4% 95%  
99 6% 91%  
100 8% 84%  
101 11% 77%  
102 12% 65% Median
103 12% 53%  
104 11% 41%  
105 10% 30%  
106 7% 20%  
107 5% 13%  
108 3% 7%  
109 2% 4%  
110 1.1% 2%  
111 0.5% 0.9%  
112 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
113 0.1% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.1% 100% Last Result
82 0.2% 99.9%  
83 0.5% 99.7%  
84 1.0% 99.2%  
85 2% 98%  
86 3% 96%  
87 5% 93%  
88 7% 88%  
89 9% 81%  
90 11% 71%  
91 13% 61% Median
92 12% 48% Majority
93 10% 36%  
94 9% 26%  
95 7% 17%  
96 5% 10%  
97 3% 6%  
98 1.5% 3%  
99 0.9% 2%  
100 0.4% 0.7%  
101 0.2% 0.3%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.2% 99.9%  
83 0.4% 99.7%  
84 0.9% 99.3%  
85 1.5% 98%  
86 3% 97%  
87 5% 94%  
88 7% 90%  
89 9% 83%  
90 10% 74%  
91 12% 64%  
92 13% 52% Median, Majority
93 11% 39%  
94 9% 29%  
95 7% 19%  
96 5% 12%  
97 3% 7%  
98 2% 4%  
99 1.0% 2%  
100 0.5% 0.8%  
101 0.2% 0.3%  
102 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
103 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 0.5% 99.6%  
75 1.0% 99.2%  
76 2% 98%  
77 3% 96%  
78 5% 93%  
79 7% 88%  
80 10% 80%  
81 11% 70%  
82 12% 59% Median
83 12% 47%  
84 11% 36%  
85 9% 25%  
86 6% 16%  
87 4% 10%  
88 3% 6%  
89 2% 3%  
90 0.8% 1.5%  
91 0.4% 0.6%  
92 0.2% 0.3% Majority
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
72 0.5% 99.6%  
73 1.1% 99.1%  
74 2% 98%  
75 3% 96%  
76 5% 93%  
77 7% 87%  
78 10% 80%  
79 11% 70%  
80 12% 59%  
81 12% 47% Median
82 11% 35%  
83 8% 23%  
84 6% 16%  
85 4% 9%  
86 3% 5%  
87 1.4% 3%  
88 0.7% 1.3%  
89 0.4% 0.6%  
90 0.2% 0.2%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0% Majority

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.2% 99.9%  
70 0.4% 99.7%  
71 0.8% 99.4%  
72 2% 98.5%  
73 3% 97%  
74 5% 94%  
75 7% 90%  
76 9% 83%  
77 10% 74%  
78 13% 63% Median
79 12% 50%  
80 11% 38%  
81 9% 27%  
82 7% 18%  
83 5% 11%  
84 3% 7%  
85 2% 3%  
86 0.9% 2% Last Result
87 0.5% 0.8%  
88 0.2% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.8%  
63 0.6% 99.6%  
64 1.2% 99.0%  
65 2% 98%  
66 4% 96% Last Result
67 6% 91%  
68 8% 85%  
69 10% 77%  
70 13% 67%  
71 12% 54% Median
72 11% 42%  
73 10% 30%  
74 7% 20%  
75 5% 13%  
76 4% 8%  
77 2% 4%  
78 1.1% 2%  
79 0.5% 0.9%  
80 0.3% 0.4%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.4% 99.8%  
51 0.9% 99.4%  
52 2% 98.5%  
53 3% 97%  
54 6% 93%  
55 8% 88%  
56 10% 80%  
57 12% 70%  
58 14% 57% Median
59 12% 44%  
60 10% 31%  
61 8% 21%  
62 6% 13%  
63 3% 7%  
64 2% 4%  
65 1.1% 2%  
66 0.5% 0.8%  
67 0.2% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.4% 99.8%  
40 0.9% 99.5% Last Result
41 2% 98.6%  
42 4% 97%  
43 6% 93%  
44 9% 87%  
45 12% 77%  
46 14% 65%  
47 14% 51% Median
48 12% 37%  
49 10% 25%  
50 7% 16%  
51 4% 9%  
52 3% 5%  
53 1.3% 2%  
54 0.6% 1.0%  
55 0.2% 0.4%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations