Opinion Poll by OGM for KURIER, 7–9 September 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 34.0% 31.9–36.2% 31.3–36.8% 30.8–37.3% 29.8–38.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 24.0% 22.1–26.0% 21.6–26.6% 21.2–27.1% 20.3–28.1%
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 18.0% 16.4–19.9% 15.9–20.4% 15.5–20.9% 14.8–21.8%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 11.9% 10.6–13.5% 10.2–14.0% 9.9–14.4% 9.3–15.2%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 10.9% 9.6–12.5% 9.3–12.9% 9.0–13.3% 8.4–14.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 63 59–67 58–68 57–69 55–71
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 44 41–48 40–49 39–50 37–52
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 33 30–37 29–38 29–38 27–40
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 22 19–25 19–26 18–26 17–28
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 20 18–23 17–24 16–24 15–26

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 0.4% 99.7%  
56 1.1% 99.3%  
57 2% 98%  
58 4% 97%  
59 5% 93%  
60 8% 88%  
61 9% 79%  
62 13% 70%  
63 11% 57% Median
64 14% 45%  
65 10% 31%  
66 9% 21%  
67 4% 12%  
68 4% 8%  
69 2% 4%  
70 1.1% 2%  
71 0.5% 0.9% Last Result
72 0.2% 0.4%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.4% 99.9%  
38 0.9% 99.4%  
39 2% 98.5%  
40 4% 96% Last Result
41 7% 92%  
42 10% 86%  
43 13% 75%  
44 15% 62% Median
45 12% 47%  
46 13% 36%  
47 9% 23%  
48 6% 14%  
49 4% 8%  
50 2% 4%  
51 1.2% 2%  
52 0.4% 0.8%  
53 0.2% 0.3%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 0.6% 99.8%  
28 2% 99.1%  
29 3% 98%  
30 7% 94%  
31 10% 87% Last Result
32 12% 77%  
33 16% 65% Median
34 16% 48%  
35 13% 32%  
36 9% 19%  
37 5% 10%  
38 3% 5%  
39 1.4% 2%  
40 0.7% 1.0%  
41 0.2% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100%  
16 0.3% 99.9%  
17 1.2% 99.7%  
18 3% 98.5%  
19 7% 95%  
20 11% 88%  
21 18% 77%  
22 20% 59% Median
23 15% 38%  
24 11% 23%  
25 6% 11%  
26 3% 5% Last Result
27 2% 2%  
28 0.5% 0.7%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.7% 99.9% Last Result
16 2% 99.1%  
17 6% 97%  
18 13% 91%  
19 15% 78%  
20 21% 62% Median
21 16% 41%  
22 13% 25%  
23 7% 13%  
24 4% 6%  
25 1.4% 2%  
26 0.5% 0.7%  
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 111 108 100% 103–111 102–113 101–114 99–116
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 112 105 100% 101–109 100–110 99–112 97–113
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 102 97 93% 92–101 91–102 90–103 88–105
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 81 86 7% 82–91 81–92 80–93 78–95
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 85 2% 81–89 80–90 79–91 77–94
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 83 0.6% 79–87 78–88 77–90 75–92
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 71 78 0% 74–82 73–83 71–84 70–86
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 66 0% 63–70 61–72 60–73 59–75
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 63 0% 59–67 58–68 57–69 55–71
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 44 0% 41–48 40–49 39–50 37–52

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0.1% 100%  
98 0.2% 99.9%  
99 0.4% 99.7%  
100 1.0% 99.3%  
101 2% 98%  
102 2% 97%  
103 5% 94%  
104 6% 89%  
105 9% 84%  
106 12% 74%  
107 13% 63% Median
108 14% 50%  
109 9% 36%  
110 9% 26%  
111 8% 18% Last Result
112 4% 10%  
113 3% 6%  
114 2% 3%  
115 0.8% 2%  
116 0.5% 0.7%  
117 0.2% 0.2%  
118 0.1% 0.1%  
119 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.3% 99.8%  
97 0.6% 99.6%  
98 1.1% 98.9%  
99 2% 98%  
100 4% 96%  
101 6% 93%  
102 7% 87%  
103 11% 80%  
104 9% 69%  
105 14% 60% Median
106 12% 46%  
107 11% 34%  
108 8% 23%  
109 6% 15%  
110 4% 9%  
111 2% 5%  
112 1.2% 3% Last Result
113 0.8% 1.3%  
114 0.3% 0.4%  
115 0.1% 0.2%  
116 0% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.2% 99.9%  
88 0.5% 99.6%  
89 1.1% 99.1%  
90 2% 98%  
91 3% 96%  
92 6% 93% Majority
93 6% 88%  
94 9% 82%  
95 12% 73%  
96 10% 61% Median
97 13% 51%  
98 12% 37%  
99 9% 26%  
100 6% 17%  
101 4% 10%  
102 3% 6% Last Result
103 2% 3%  
104 0.8% 1.4%  
105 0.4% 0.6%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.4% 99.8%  
79 0.8% 99.4%  
80 2% 98.6%  
81 3% 97% Last Result
82 4% 94%  
83 6% 90%  
84 9% 83%  
85 12% 74%  
86 13% 63% Median
87 10% 49%  
88 12% 39%  
89 9% 27%  
90 6% 18%  
91 6% 12%  
92 3% 7% Majority
93 2% 4%  
94 1.1% 2%  
95 0.5% 0.9%  
96 0.2% 0.4%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.3% 99.8%  
77 0.6% 99.5%  
78 1.2% 98.9%  
79 2% 98%  
80 4% 95%  
81 5% 92%  
82 8% 86%  
83 10% 78%  
84 11% 68%  
85 12% 58% Median
86 13% 45%  
87 10% 32%  
88 8% 22%  
89 6% 14%  
90 4% 9%  
91 2% 5%  
92 1.2% 2% Majority
93 0.8% 1.3%  
94 0.3% 0.5%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.9%  
75 0.5% 99.6%  
76 1.2% 99.2%  
77 2% 98%  
78 3% 96%  
79 6% 93%  
80 8% 87%  
81 9% 80%  
82 10% 70%  
83 13% 60% Median
84 15% 47%  
85 10% 32%  
86 6% 22% Last Result
87 7% 16%  
88 4% 9%  
89 2% 5%  
90 2% 3%  
91 0.8% 1.4%  
92 0.3% 0.6% Majority
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.3% 99.8%  
70 0.8% 99.6%  
71 1.2% 98.7% Last Result
72 2% 97%  
73 4% 95%  
74 6% 91%  
75 8% 85%  
76 11% 77%  
77 12% 66% Median
78 14% 54%  
79 9% 40%  
80 11% 31%  
81 7% 20%  
82 6% 13%  
83 4% 7%  
84 2% 4%  
85 1.1% 2%  
86 0.6% 1.1%  
87 0.3% 0.4%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.3% 99.8%  
59 0.8% 99.5%  
60 2% 98.7%  
61 2% 97%  
62 5% 95%  
63 8% 90%  
64 9% 82%  
65 12% 73%  
66 12% 61% Last Result, Median
67 13% 49%  
68 12% 36%  
69 7% 24%  
70 7% 17%  
71 4% 10%  
72 3% 6%  
73 2% 3%  
74 0.6% 1.3%  
75 0.4% 0.7%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 0.4% 99.7%  
56 1.1% 99.3%  
57 2% 98%  
58 4% 97%  
59 5% 93%  
60 8% 88%  
61 9% 79%  
62 13% 70%  
63 11% 57% Median
64 14% 45%  
65 10% 31%  
66 9% 21%  
67 4% 12%  
68 4% 8%  
69 2% 4%  
70 1.1% 2%  
71 0.5% 0.9% Last Result
72 0.2% 0.4%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.4% 99.9%  
38 0.9% 99.4%  
39 2% 98.5%  
40 4% 96% Last Result
41 7% 92%  
42 10% 86%  
43 13% 75%  
44 15% 62% Median
45 12% 47%  
46 13% 36%  
47 9% 23%  
48 6% 14%  
49 4% 8%  
50 2% 4%  
51 1.2% 2%  
52 0.4% 0.8%  
53 0.2% 0.3%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations