Opinion Poll by IFDD, 7–11 October 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 37.5% | 26.0% | 24.6–27.5% | 24.2–27.9% | 23.9–28.3% | 23.2–29.0% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 21.2% | 25.0% | 23.6–26.5% | 23.3–26.9% | 22.9–27.3% | 22.3–28.0% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 16.2% | 21.0% | 19.7–22.4% | 19.3–22.8% | 19.0–23.1% | 18.4–23.8% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 8.1% | 11.0% | 10.0–12.1% | 9.8–12.4% | 9.5–12.7% | 9.1–13.2% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 13.9% | 11.0% | 10.0–12.1% | 9.8–12.4% | 9.5–12.7% | 9.1–13.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 48 | 45–50 | 44–51 | 44–52 | 43–53 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 46 | 43–49 | 43–49 | 42–50 | 41–51 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 31 | 38 | 36–41 | 35–42 | 35–42 | 34–44 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 15 | 20 | 20–21 | 20–21 | 19–21 | 16–24 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 26 | 20 | 18–22 | 18–22 | 17–23 | 16–24 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 1.3% | 99.5% | |
| 44 | 4% | 98% | |
| 45 | 8% | 94% | |
| 46 | 14% | 86% | |
| 47 | 19% | 73% | |
| 48 | 19% | 54% | Median |
| 49 | 15% | 36% | |
| 50 | 11% | 20% | |
| 51 | 6% | 10% | |
| 52 | 2% | 4% | |
| 53 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 54 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.3% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 41 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 42 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 43 | 7% | 96% | |
| 44 | 13% | 88% | |
| 45 | 17% | 76% | |
| 46 | 19% | 59% | Median |
| 47 | 17% | 39% | |
| 48 | 12% | 23% | |
| 49 | 6% | 11% | |
| 50 | 3% | 4% | |
| 51 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 52 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 1.5% | 99.6% | |
| 35 | 4% | 98% | |
| 36 | 10% | 94% | |
| 37 | 16% | 84% | |
| 38 | 20% | 68% | Median |
| 39 | 19% | 48% | |
| 40 | 14% | 29% | |
| 41 | 9% | 14% | |
| 42 | 4% | 6% | |
| 43 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 44 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 16 | 1.5% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 18 | 0% | 98% | |
| 19 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 20 | 52% | 96% | Median |
| 21 | 43% | 45% | |
| 22 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 25 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 17 | 4% | 99.4% | |
| 18 | 12% | 95% | |
| 19 | 23% | 83% | |
| 20 | 30% | 60% | Median |
| 21 | 19% | 30% | |
| 22 | 8% | 11% | |
| 23 | 3% | 3% | |
| 24 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 111 | 94 | 83% | 91–97 | 90–98 | 89–98 | 88–100 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 112 | 88 | 7% | 85–91 | 84–92 | 83–93 | 82–94 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 81 | 86 | 1.1% | 83–89 | 82–90 | 82–91 | 80–92 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 102 | 86 | 1.2% | 83–89 | 82–90 | 82–91 | 80–92 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 71 | 84 | 0.1% | 81–87 | 81–88 | 80–89 | 78–90 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 86 | 68 | 0% | 66–71 | 65–72 | 64–72 | 63–74 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 97 | 68 | 0% | 65–70 | 64–71 | 63–72 | 62–73 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 66 | 66 | 0% | 63–69 | 62–69 | 62–70 | 60–72 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 48 | 0% | 45–50 | 44–51 | 44–52 | 43–53 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 46 | 0% | 43–49 | 43–49 | 42–50 | 41–51 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 88 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 89 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 90 | 5% | 96% | |
| 91 | 8% | 91% | |
| 92 | 13% | 83% | Majority |
| 93 | 17% | 70% | |
| 94 | 16% | 53% | Median |
| 95 | 14% | 37% | |
| 96 | 11% | 22% | |
| 97 | 7% | 12% | |
| 98 | 3% | 5% | |
| 99 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 100 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 82 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 83 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 84 | 4% | 97% | |
| 85 | 8% | 93% | |
| 86 | 11% | 85% | |
| 87 | 16% | 74% | |
| 88 | 17% | 58% | Median |
| 89 | 15% | 41% | |
| 90 | 12% | 26% | |
| 91 | 7% | 14% | |
| 92 | 4% | 7% | Majority |
| 93 | 2% | 3% | |
| 94 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 95 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 79 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 81 | 1.5% | 99.3% | Last Result |
| 82 | 4% | 98% | |
| 83 | 7% | 94% | |
| 84 | 11% | 87% | |
| 85 | 15% | 76% | |
| 86 | 16% | 61% | Median |
| 87 | 16% | 45% | |
| 88 | 13% | 29% | |
| 89 | 8% | 16% | |
| 90 | 5% | 8% | |
| 91 | 2% | 3% | |
| 92 | 0.8% | 1.1% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 79 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 81 | 1.4% | 99.3% | |
| 82 | 4% | 98% | |
| 83 | 7% | 94% | |
| 84 | 11% | 88% | |
| 85 | 15% | 76% | |
| 86 | 16% | 61% | Median |
| 87 | 16% | 45% | |
| 88 | 12% | 28% | |
| 89 | 9% | 17% | |
| 90 | 5% | 8% | |
| 91 | 2% | 3% | |
| 92 | 0.9% | 1.2% | Majority |
| 93 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 79 | 1.3% | 99.4% | |
| 80 | 3% | 98% | |
| 81 | 6% | 95% | |
| 82 | 10% | 89% | |
| 83 | 14% | 79% | |
| 84 | 16% | 64% | Median |
| 85 | 17% | 48% | |
| 86 | 13% | 31% | |
| 87 | 9% | 18% | |
| 88 | 5% | 9% | |
| 89 | 3% | 4% | |
| 90 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 91 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 63 | 1.0% | 99.5% | |
| 64 | 3% | 98.5% | |
| 65 | 6% | 96% | |
| 66 | 11% | 90% | |
| 67 | 17% | 79% | |
| 68 | 20% | 62% | Median |
| 69 | 17% | 42% | |
| 70 | 13% | 26% | |
| 71 | 7% | 13% | |
| 72 | 4% | 5% | |
| 73 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 74 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 63 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 64 | 5% | 97% | |
| 65 | 9% | 92% | |
| 66 | 15% | 83% | |
| 67 | 17% | 69% | |
| 68 | 18% | 52% | Median |
| 69 | 15% | 33% | |
| 70 | 10% | 19% | |
| 71 | 5% | 9% | |
| 72 | 2% | 4% | |
| 73 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 74 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 61 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 62 | 4% | 98% | |
| 63 | 9% | 94% | |
| 64 | 13% | 85% | |
| 65 | 17% | 72% | |
| 66 | 18% | 55% | Last Result, Median |
| 67 | 16% | 37% | |
| 68 | 11% | 21% | |
| 69 | 6% | 10% | |
| 70 | 3% | 4% | |
| 71 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 72 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 1.3% | 99.5% | |
| 44 | 4% | 98% | |
| 45 | 8% | 94% | |
| 46 | 14% | 86% | |
| 47 | 19% | 73% | |
| 48 | 19% | 54% | Median |
| 49 | 15% | 36% | |
| 50 | 11% | 20% | |
| 51 | 6% | 10% | |
| 52 | 2% | 4% | |
| 53 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 54 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.3% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 41 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 42 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 43 | 7% | 96% | |
| 44 | 13% | 88% | |
| 45 | 17% | 76% | |
| 46 | 19% | 59% | Median |
| 47 | 17% | 39% | |
| 48 | 12% | 23% | |
| 49 | 6% | 11% | |
| 50 | 3% | 4% | |
| 51 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 52 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: IFDD
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 7–11 October 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1526
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.14%