Opinion Poll by Market for Der Standard, 11–12 October 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 37.5% | 27.0% | 25.1–29.1% | 24.5–29.7% | 24.0–30.2% | 23.1–31.2% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 21.2% | 25.0% | 23.1–27.0% | 22.6–27.6% | 22.1–28.1% | 21.2–29.1% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 16.2% | 21.0% | 19.2–22.9% | 18.7–23.5% | 18.3–24.0% | 17.5–24.9% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 8.1% | 13.0% | 11.6–14.6% | 11.2–15.1% | 10.8–15.5% | 10.2–16.3% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 13.9% | 11.0% | 9.7–12.5% | 9.3–13.0% | 9.0–13.4% | 8.4–14.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 51 | 47–55 | 46–56 | 45–57 | 43–59 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 47 | 43–51 | 42–52 | 41–53 | 40–55 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 31 | 39 | 36–43 | 35–44 | 34–45 | 33–47 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 15 | 24 | 21–27 | 21–28 | 20–29 | 19–31 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 26 | 20 | 18–23 | 17–24 | 17–25 | 15–26 |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 44 | 1.0% | 99.4% | |
| 45 | 2% | 98% | |
| 46 | 4% | 96% | |
| 47 | 6% | 93% | |
| 48 | 9% | 87% | |
| 49 | 11% | 78% | |
| 50 | 13% | 67% | |
| 51 | 13% | 54% | Median |
| 52 | 12% | 41% | |
| 53 | 11% | 30% | |
| 54 | 7% | 19% | |
| 55 | 5% | 12% | |
| 56 | 3% | 6% | |
| 57 | 2% | 3% | |
| 58 | 0.8% | 1.5% | |
| 59 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 0.7% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 41 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 42 | 3% | 97% | |
| 43 | 5% | 94% | |
| 44 | 8% | 89% | |
| 45 | 11% | 81% | |
| 46 | 13% | 70% | |
| 47 | 14% | 57% | Median |
| 48 | 12% | 43% | |
| 49 | 11% | 31% | |
| 50 | 8% | 21% | |
| 51 | 5% | 12% | |
| 52 | 3% | 7% | |
| 53 | 2% | 4% | |
| 54 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 55 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 32 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 34 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 35 | 4% | 97% | |
| 36 | 7% | 93% | |
| 37 | 10% | 86% | |
| 38 | 13% | 76% | |
| 39 | 14% | 64% | Median |
| 40 | 14% | 50% | |
| 41 | 12% | 36% | |
| 42 | 10% | 24% | |
| 43 | 6% | 14% | |
| 44 | 4% | 8% | |
| 45 | 2% | 4% | |
| 46 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 47 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 20 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 21 | 6% | 96% | |
| 22 | 11% | 90% | |
| 23 | 15% | 79% | |
| 24 | 18% | 64% | Median |
| 25 | 16% | 46% | |
| 26 | 13% | 30% | |
| 27 | 9% | 17% | |
| 28 | 5% | 9% | |
| 29 | 2% | 4% | |
| 30 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 31 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 17 | 5% | 98% | |
| 18 | 10% | 93% | |
| 19 | 15% | 84% | |
| 20 | 19% | 69% | Median |
| 21 | 17% | 50% | |
| 22 | 15% | 33% | |
| 23 | 9% | 18% | |
| 24 | 5% | 9% | |
| 25 | 2% | 4% | |
| 26 | 0.9% | 1.3% | Last Result |
| 27 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 111 | 98 | 97% | 94–102 | 92–104 | 91–105 | 89–107 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 112 | 96 | 89% | 91–100 | 90–101 | 89–102 | 87–105 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 81 | 92 | 56% | 88–96 | 86–98 | 85–99 | 83–101 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 102 | 90 | 38% | 86–95 | 85–96 | 83–97 | 81–99 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 71 | 87 | 8% | 82–91 | 81–92 | 80–93 | 78–95 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 86 | 75 | 0% | 71–80 | 70–81 | 69–82 | 67–84 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 97 | 71 | 0% | 67–76 | 66–77 | 65–78 | 63–80 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 66 | 68 | 0% | 63–72 | 62–73 | 61–74 | 59–76 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 51 | 0% | 47–55 | 46–56 | 45–57 | 43–59 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 47 | 0% | 43–51 | 42–52 | 41–53 | 40–55 |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 88 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 89 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 90 | 1.0% | 99.1% | |
| 91 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 92 | 3% | 97% | Majority |
| 93 | 3% | 94% | |
| 94 | 6% | 90% | |
| 95 | 8% | 84% | |
| 96 | 10% | 76% | |
| 97 | 11% | 67% | |
| 98 | 10% | 55% | Median |
| 99 | 13% | 45% | |
| 100 | 9% | 32% | |
| 101 | 8% | 24% | |
| 102 | 6% | 15% | |
| 103 | 3% | 9% | |
| 104 | 3% | 6% | |
| 105 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 106 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 107 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 84 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 86 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 87 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 88 | 1.0% | 99.0% | |
| 89 | 2% | 98% | |
| 90 | 3% | 96% | |
| 91 | 4% | 94% | |
| 92 | 6% | 89% | Majority |
| 93 | 8% | 83% | |
| 94 | 9% | 75% | |
| 95 | 11% | 65% | Median |
| 96 | 11% | 54% | |
| 97 | 11% | 43% | |
| 98 | 10% | 32% | |
| 99 | 8% | 22% | |
| 100 | 6% | 14% | |
| 101 | 4% | 9% | |
| 102 | 2% | 5% | |
| 103 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 104 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 105 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 106 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 82 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 83 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 84 | 0.9% | 99.2% | |
| 85 | 2% | 98% | |
| 86 | 3% | 97% | |
| 87 | 4% | 94% | |
| 88 | 6% | 90% | |
| 89 | 8% | 85% | |
| 90 | 9% | 76% | |
| 91 | 11% | 67% | Median |
| 92 | 11% | 56% | Majority |
| 93 | 11% | 45% | |
| 94 | 10% | 34% | |
| 95 | 8% | 24% | |
| 96 | 6% | 16% | |
| 97 | 4% | 9% | |
| 98 | 3% | 6% | |
| 99 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 100 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 101 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 102 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 79 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 81 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 82 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 83 | 1.2% | 98.7% | |
| 84 | 2% | 97% | |
| 85 | 4% | 95% | |
| 86 | 5% | 92% | |
| 87 | 7% | 87% | |
| 88 | 9% | 80% | |
| 89 | 10% | 71% | |
| 90 | 12% | 61% | Median |
| 91 | 11% | 49% | |
| 92 | 11% | 38% | Majority |
| 93 | 8% | 27% | |
| 94 | 7% | 19% | |
| 95 | 5% | 11% | |
| 96 | 3% | 7% | |
| 97 | 2% | 4% | |
| 98 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 99 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 103 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 77 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 78 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 79 | 1.1% | 99.0% | |
| 80 | 2% | 98% | |
| 81 | 3% | 96% | |
| 82 | 5% | 93% | |
| 83 | 7% | 88% | |
| 84 | 9% | 82% | |
| 85 | 10% | 73% | |
| 86 | 11% | 63% | Median |
| 87 | 12% | 51% | |
| 88 | 11% | 40% | |
| 89 | 9% | 29% | |
| 90 | 7% | 20% | |
| 91 | 5% | 13% | |
| 92 | 3% | 8% | Majority |
| 93 | 2% | 4% | |
| 94 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 95 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 96 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 67 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 68 | 1.2% | 98.9% | |
| 69 | 2% | 98% | |
| 70 | 3% | 96% | |
| 71 | 5% | 92% | |
| 72 | 7% | 87% | |
| 73 | 9% | 79% | |
| 74 | 11% | 70% | |
| 75 | 11% | 59% | Median |
| 76 | 12% | 47% | |
| 77 | 10% | 35% | |
| 78 | 9% | 25% | |
| 79 | 6% | 16% | |
| 80 | 5% | 10% | |
| 81 | 3% | 6% | |
| 82 | 2% | 3% | |
| 83 | 0.7% | 1.5% | |
| 84 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 85 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 87 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 64 | 1.0% | 99.1% | |
| 65 | 2% | 98% | |
| 66 | 3% | 96% | |
| 67 | 5% | 93% | |
| 68 | 7% | 88% | |
| 69 | 9% | 81% | |
| 70 | 11% | 72% | |
| 71 | 12% | 61% | Median |
| 72 | 12% | 49% | |
| 73 | 11% | 38% | |
| 74 | 9% | 27% | |
| 75 | 7% | 18% | |
| 76 | 5% | 11% | |
| 77 | 3% | 6% | |
| 78 | 2% | 3% | |
| 79 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 80 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 60 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 61 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 62 | 3% | 97% | |
| 63 | 5% | 94% | |
| 64 | 7% | 90% | |
| 65 | 9% | 83% | |
| 66 | 11% | 74% | Last Result |
| 67 | 12% | 64% | Median |
| 68 | 12% | 52% | |
| 69 | 11% | 40% | |
| 70 | 9% | 29% | |
| 71 | 7% | 19% | |
| 72 | 5% | 12% | |
| 73 | 3% | 7% | |
| 74 | 2% | 4% | |
| 75 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 44 | 1.0% | 99.4% | |
| 45 | 2% | 98% | |
| 46 | 4% | 96% | |
| 47 | 6% | 93% | |
| 48 | 9% | 87% | |
| 49 | 11% | 78% | |
| 50 | 13% | 67% | |
| 51 | 13% | 54% | Median |
| 52 | 12% | 41% | |
| 53 | 11% | 30% | |
| 54 | 7% | 19% | |
| 55 | 5% | 12% | |
| 56 | 3% | 6% | |
| 57 | 2% | 3% | |
| 58 | 0.8% | 1.5% | |
| 59 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 0.7% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 41 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 42 | 3% | 97% | |
| 43 | 5% | 94% | |
| 44 | 8% | 89% | |
| 45 | 11% | 81% | |
| 46 | 13% | 70% | |
| 47 | 14% | 57% | Median |
| 48 | 12% | 43% | |
| 49 | 11% | 31% | |
| 50 | 8% | 21% | |
| 51 | 5% | 12% | |
| 52 | 3% | 7% | |
| 53 | 2% | 4% | |
| 54 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 55 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Market
- Commissioner(s): Der Standard
- Fieldwork period: 11–12 October 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 800
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.04%