Opinion Poll by OGM for KURIER, 23–25 November 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 21.2% | 26.0% | 24.2–28.1% | 23.6–28.6% | 23.2–29.1% | 22.3–30.1% |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 37.5% | 23.1% | 21.3–25.0% | 20.8–25.6% | 20.3–26.0% | 19.5–27.0% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 16.2% | 21.0% | 19.3–22.9% | 18.8–23.5% | 18.4–23.9% | 17.6–24.9% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 8.1% | 11.9% | 10.6–13.5% | 10.2–13.9% | 9.9–14.3% | 9.3–15.1% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 13.9% | 11.9% | 10.6–13.5% | 10.2–13.9% | 9.9–14.3% | 9.3–15.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 48 | 44–51 | 43–53 | 42–53 | 41–55 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 42 | 39–46 | 38–47 | 37–48 | 36–49 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 31 | 39 | 35–42 | 34–43 | 34–44 | 32–46 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 15 | 23 | 20–24 | 19–26 | 17–26 | 17–27 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 26 | 22 | 19–25 | 18–25 | 18–26 | 17–27 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.3% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 41 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 42 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 43 | 3% | 97% | |
| 44 | 6% | 94% | |
| 45 | 9% | 88% | |
| 46 | 12% | 79% | |
| 47 | 14% | 68% | |
| 48 | 14% | 54% | Median |
| 49 | 13% | 40% | |
| 50 | 10% | 27% | |
| 51 | 7% | 17% | |
| 52 | 5% | 10% | |
| 53 | 3% | 5% | |
| 54 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 55 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 56 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 37 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 38 | 4% | 97% | |
| 39 | 7% | 92% | |
| 40 | 11% | 85% | |
| 41 | 13% | 75% | |
| 42 | 14% | 61% | Median |
| 43 | 14% | 47% | |
| 44 | 12% | 33% | |
| 45 | 9% | 21% | |
| 46 | 6% | 12% | |
| 47 | 3% | 6% | |
| 48 | 2% | 3% | |
| 49 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 50 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.2% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 32 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 33 | 1.5% | 99.2% | |
| 34 | 3% | 98% | |
| 35 | 6% | 94% | |
| 36 | 10% | 88% | |
| 37 | 13% | 78% | |
| 38 | 15% | 65% | |
| 39 | 15% | 50% | Median |
| 40 | 13% | 35% | |
| 41 | 9% | 22% | |
| 42 | 6% | 13% | |
| 43 | 4% | 7% | |
| 44 | 2% | 3% | |
| 45 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 46 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 3% | 100% | |
| 18 | 1.5% | 97% | |
| 19 | 0.6% | 95% | |
| 20 | 36% | 95% | |
| 21 | 5% | 59% | |
| 22 | 3% | 54% | |
| 23 | 40% | 51% | Median |
| 24 | 1.4% | 11% | |
| 25 | 2% | 9% | |
| 26 | 7% | 7% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 29 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 17 | 1.1% | 99.7% | |
| 18 | 4% | 98.5% | |
| 19 | 9% | 95% | |
| 20 | 14% | 86% | |
| 21 | 17% | 72% | |
| 22 | 19% | 54% | Median |
| 23 | 15% | 36% | |
| 24 | 11% | 21% | |
| 25 | 6% | 10% | |
| 26 | 2% | 4% | Last Result |
| 27 | 1.0% | 1.5% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 81 | 91 | 49% | 87–96 | 86–97 | 85–98 | 83–100 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei | 111 | 90 | 34% | 86–94 | 85–95 | 84–96 | 82–98 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 71 | 86 | 5% | 82–90 | 81–92 | 80–93 | 78–95 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 112 | 86 | 4% | 82–90 | 81–91 | 80–92 | 78–94 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 102 | 81 | 0.1% | 77–85 | 76–86 | 75–87 | 73–89 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 66 | 70 | 0% | 66–74 | 64–75 | 64–76 | 62–78 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 97 | 64 | 0% | 60–68 | 59–69 | 58–70 | 56–72 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 86 | 64 | 0% | 60–68 | 59–69 | 58–70 | 56–72 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 48 | 0% | 44–51 | 43–53 | 42–53 | 41–55 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 42 | 0% | 39–46 | 38–47 | 37–48 | 36–49 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 81 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 82 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 83 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 84 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 85 | 2% | 98% | |
| 86 | 3% | 97% | |
| 87 | 5% | 94% | |
| 88 | 7% | 89% | |
| 89 | 9% | 82% | |
| 90 | 11% | 72% | |
| 91 | 12% | 61% | |
| 92 | 12% | 49% | Majority |
| 93 | 11% | 37% | Median |
| 94 | 8% | 25% | |
| 95 | 7% | 17% | |
| 96 | 5% | 10% | |
| 97 | 3% | 6% | |
| 98 | 2% | 3% | |
| 99 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 100 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 101 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 82 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 83 | 1.1% | 99.1% | |
| 84 | 2% | 98% | |
| 85 | 3% | 96% | |
| 86 | 5% | 93% | |
| 87 | 8% | 87% | |
| 88 | 10% | 80% | |
| 89 | 12% | 69% | |
| 90 | 12% | 58% | Median |
| 91 | 12% | 46% | |
| 92 | 10% | 34% | Majority |
| 93 | 9% | 23% | |
| 94 | 6% | 15% | |
| 95 | 4% | 9% | |
| 96 | 2% | 5% | |
| 97 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 98 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 99 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 78 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 79 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 80 | 2% | 98% | |
| 81 | 3% | 97% | |
| 82 | 5% | 94% | |
| 83 | 7% | 89% | |
| 84 | 10% | 82% | |
| 85 | 11% | 72% | |
| 86 | 12% | 61% | |
| 87 | 13% | 49% | Median |
| 88 | 11% | 36% | |
| 89 | 9% | 25% | |
| 90 | 7% | 17% | |
| 91 | 5% | 10% | |
| 92 | 3% | 5% | Majority |
| 93 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 94 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 95 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 96 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 77 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 78 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 79 | 1.3% | 99.0% | |
| 80 | 2% | 98% | |
| 81 | 4% | 96% | |
| 82 | 6% | 91% | |
| 83 | 8% | 86% | |
| 84 | 11% | 77% | |
| 85 | 12% | 67% | |
| 86 | 12% | 54% | |
| 87 | 11% | 42% | Median |
| 88 | 11% | 31% | |
| 89 | 8% | 20% | |
| 90 | 5% | 13% | |
| 91 | 3% | 8% | |
| 92 | 2% | 4% | Majority |
| 93 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 94 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 95 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 73 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 74 | 1.2% | 99.0% | |
| 75 | 2% | 98% | |
| 76 | 4% | 95% | |
| 77 | 6% | 92% | |
| 78 | 8% | 86% | |
| 79 | 11% | 77% | |
| 80 | 12% | 66% | |
| 81 | 12% | 54% | Median |
| 82 | 12% | 42% | |
| 83 | 10% | 30% | |
| 84 | 8% | 21% | |
| 85 | 5% | 12% | |
| 86 | 3% | 7% | |
| 87 | 2% | 4% | |
| 88 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 89 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 90 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 62 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 63 | 1.4% | 99.0% | |
| 64 | 3% | 98% | |
| 65 | 4% | 95% | |
| 66 | 7% | 91% | Last Result |
| 67 | 9% | 84% | |
| 68 | 11% | 75% | |
| 69 | 12% | 64% | |
| 70 | 13% | 51% | Median |
| 71 | 10% | 38% | |
| 72 | 10% | 28% | |
| 73 | 7% | 18% | |
| 74 | 4% | 11% | |
| 75 | 3% | 6% | |
| 76 | 2% | 3% | |
| 77 | 0.8% | 1.5% | |
| 78 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 57 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 58 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 59 | 3% | 97% | |
| 60 | 5% | 93% | |
| 61 | 9% | 88% | |
| 62 | 10% | 79% | |
| 63 | 12% | 70% | |
| 64 | 13% | 57% | Median |
| 65 | 12% | 45% | |
| 66 | 11% | 32% | |
| 67 | 8% | 22% | |
| 68 | 5% | 13% | |
| 69 | 4% | 8% | |
| 70 | 2% | 4% | |
| 71 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 72 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 73 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 57 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 58 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 59 | 3% | 97% | |
| 60 | 5% | 93% | |
| 61 | 8% | 88% | |
| 62 | 10% | 80% | |
| 63 | 12% | 70% | |
| 64 | 13% | 57% | |
| 65 | 12% | 44% | Median |
| 66 | 11% | 32% | |
| 67 | 8% | 22% | |
| 68 | 6% | 14% | |
| 69 | 4% | 8% | |
| 70 | 2% | 4% | |
| 71 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 72 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 73 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.3% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 41 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 42 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 43 | 3% | 97% | |
| 44 | 6% | 94% | |
| 45 | 9% | 88% | |
| 46 | 12% | 79% | |
| 47 | 14% | 68% | |
| 48 | 14% | 54% | Median |
| 49 | 13% | 40% | |
| 50 | 10% | 27% | |
| 51 | 7% | 17% | |
| 52 | 5% | 10% | |
| 53 | 3% | 5% | |
| 54 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 55 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 56 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 37 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 38 | 4% | 97% | |
| 39 | 7% | 92% | |
| 40 | 11% | 85% | |
| 41 | 13% | 75% | |
| 42 | 14% | 61% | Median |
| 43 | 14% | 47% | |
| 44 | 12% | 33% | |
| 45 | 9% | 21% | |
| 46 | 6% | 12% | |
| 47 | 3% | 6% | |
| 48 | 2% | 3% | |
| 49 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 50 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: OGM
- Commissioner(s): KURIER
- Fieldwork period: 23–25 November 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 837
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.30%