Opinion Poll by IFDD for PULS 24, 6–9 December 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 26.1% 23.8–28.6% 23.2–29.3% 22.6–29.9% 21.5–31.1%
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 23.0% 20.8–25.4% 20.2–26.1% 19.7–26.7% 18.7–27.9%
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 19.9% 17.9–22.2% 17.3–22.9% 16.8–23.5% 15.9–24.6%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 12.0% 10.3–13.9% 9.9–14.4% 9.5–14.9% 8.8–15.9%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 12.0% 10.3–13.9% 9.9–14.4% 9.5–14.9% 8.8–15.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 48 43–52 42–54 41–55 39–57
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 42 38–46 37–48 36–49 34–51
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 36 32–41 31–42 31–43 29–45
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 21 20–24 17–27 17–27 16–28
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 22 19–25 18–26 17–27 16–29

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.4% 99.8%  
40 0.8% 99.4% Last Result
41 2% 98.6%  
42 3% 97%  
43 4% 94%  
44 6% 90%  
45 9% 83%  
46 10% 75%  
47 11% 64%  
48 11% 53% Median
49 11% 42%  
50 9% 31%  
51 7% 22%  
52 5% 14%  
53 4% 9%  
54 2% 5%  
55 1.4% 3%  
56 0.8% 2%  
57 0.4% 0.7%  
58 0.2% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 0.5% 99.7%  
35 1.1% 99.2%  
36 2% 98%  
37 4% 96%  
38 5% 92%  
39 8% 87%  
40 10% 79%  
41 11% 69%  
42 12% 57% Median
43 11% 45%  
44 10% 34%  
45 8% 24%  
46 6% 16%  
47 4% 10%  
48 2% 6%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.8% 2%  
51 0.4% 0.7%  
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.2% 99.9%  
29 0.6% 99.6%  
30 1.4% 99.0%  
31 3% 98% Last Result
32 5% 95%  
33 7% 90%  
34 10% 83%  
35 12% 73%  
36 12% 61% Median
37 12% 49%  
38 11% 37%  
39 9% 26%  
40 7% 17%  
41 4% 10%  
42 3% 6%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.8% 2%  
45 0.4% 0.7%  
46 0.2% 0.3%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100% Last Result
16 2% 100%  
17 4% 98%  
18 0.1% 94%  
19 2% 94%  
20 37% 92%  
21 7% 55% Median
22 0% 48%  
23 18% 48%  
24 22% 30%  
25 0.3% 8%  
26 0.4% 7%  
27 6% 7%  
28 0.7% 1.0%  
29 0% 0.3%  
30 0.2% 0.3%  
31 0.2% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.3% 99.9%  
16 1.0% 99.6%  
17 3% 98.7%  
18 5% 96%  
19 9% 91%  
20 13% 82%  
21 15% 69%  
22 16% 54% Median
23 13% 38%  
24 10% 25%  
25 7% 15%  
26 4% 8% Last Result
27 2% 4%  
28 1.0% 2%  
29 0.5% 0.7%  
30 0.2% 0.3%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 81 91 50% 86–97 85–98 84–99 81–102
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei 111 90 35% 85–95 84–96 82–98 80–100
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 112 86 8% 81–91 79–92 78–94 76–96
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 71 84 3% 79–89 78–91 77–92 74–95
Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 102 79 0.1% 74–84 72–85 71–86 69–89
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 70 0% 65–75 63–76 62–77 60–80
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 64 0% 59–69 58–70 57–71 55–74
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 64 0% 59–69 58–70 57–71 55–74
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 48 0% 43–52 42–54 41–55 39–57
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 42 0% 38–46 37–48 36–49 34–51

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.3% 99.7% Last Result
82 0.6% 99.5%  
83 0.9% 98.9%  
84 2% 98%  
85 2% 96%  
86 4% 94%  
87 5% 90%  
88 7% 84%  
89 9% 78%  
90 9% 69%  
91 10% 60% Median
92 10% 50% Majority
93 9% 40%  
94 9% 31%  
95 6% 22%  
96 6% 16%  
97 4% 10%  
98 3% 6%  
99 2% 4%  
100 0.9% 2%  
101 0.6% 1.2%  
102 0.3% 0.5%  
103 0.1% 0.3%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.2% 99.8%  
80 0.4% 99.6%  
81 0.7% 99.2%  
82 1.3% 98%  
83 2% 97%  
84 3% 95%  
85 5% 92%  
86 6% 87%  
87 7% 81%  
88 9% 74%  
89 10% 65%  
90 10% 55% Median
91 10% 45%  
92 9% 35% Majority
93 8% 26%  
94 6% 19%  
95 5% 13%  
96 3% 8%  
97 2% 5%  
98 1.3% 3%  
99 0.8% 2%  
100 0.4% 0.8%  
101 0.2% 0.4%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 99.8%  
76 0.5% 99.6%  
77 0.8% 99.1%  
78 1.4% 98%  
79 2% 97%  
80 4% 95%  
81 5% 91%  
82 6% 86%  
83 8% 80%  
84 9% 72%  
85 10% 63% Median
86 10% 53%  
87 10% 43%  
88 9% 34%  
89 7% 25%  
90 6% 18%  
91 4% 12%  
92 3% 8% Majority
93 2% 5%  
94 1.2% 3%  
95 0.7% 1.4%  
96 0.4% 0.7%  
97 0.2% 0.3%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 0.3% 99.7%  
75 0.6% 99.4%  
76 1.1% 98.8%  
77 2% 98%  
78 3% 96%  
79 4% 93%  
80 5% 89%  
81 7% 83%  
82 9% 76%  
83 10% 68%  
84 10% 58% Median
85 10% 48%  
86 9% 38%  
87 8% 29%  
88 6% 21%  
89 5% 15%  
90 4% 10%  
91 2% 6%  
92 2% 3% Majority
93 0.9% 2%  
94 0.5% 1.0%  
95 0.3% 0.5%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.8%  
69 0.5% 99.6%  
70 0.9% 99.1%  
71 1.5% 98%  
72 2% 97%  
73 4% 94%  
74 5% 91%  
75 7% 86%  
76 8% 79%  
77 9% 71%  
78 10% 62% Median
79 10% 52%  
80 9% 41%  
81 9% 32%  
82 7% 23%  
83 5% 16%  
84 4% 11%  
85 3% 7%  
86 2% 4%  
87 1.0% 2%  
88 0.6% 1.2%  
89 0.3% 0.6%  
90 0.2% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.4% 99.7%  
61 0.8% 99.3%  
62 1.3% 98%  
63 2% 97%  
64 4% 95%  
65 5% 91%  
66 7% 86% Last Result
67 8% 79%  
68 9% 71%  
69 10% 62%  
70 10% 51% Median
71 10% 41%  
72 9% 32%  
73 7% 23%  
74 5% 16%  
75 4% 10%  
76 3% 6%  
77 2% 4%  
78 1.0% 2%  
79 0.6% 1.2%  
80 0.3% 0.6%  
81 0.2% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.3% 99.8%  
55 0.6% 99.5%  
56 1.1% 98.9%  
57 2% 98%  
58 3% 96%  
59 4% 93%  
60 6% 89%  
61 8% 82%  
62 9% 75%  
63 10% 65%  
64 11% 55% Median
65 10% 44%  
66 9% 34%  
67 7% 25%  
68 6% 18%  
69 4% 12%  
70 3% 7%  
71 2% 4%  
72 1.2% 2%  
73 0.6% 1.3%  
74 0.3% 0.6%  
75 0.2% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.3% 99.8%  
55 0.6% 99.5%  
56 1.1% 98.9%  
57 2% 98%  
58 3% 96%  
59 4% 93%  
60 6% 89%  
61 8% 82%  
62 9% 74%  
63 10% 65% Median
64 11% 55%  
65 10% 45%  
66 9% 34%  
67 7% 25%  
68 6% 17%  
69 4% 12%  
70 3% 7%  
71 2% 4%  
72 1.1% 2%  
73 0.6% 1.3%  
74 0.3% 0.6%  
75 0.2% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.4% 99.8%  
40 0.8% 99.4% Last Result
41 2% 98.6%  
42 3% 97%  
43 4% 94%  
44 6% 90%  
45 9% 83%  
46 10% 75%  
47 11% 64%  
48 11% 53% Median
49 11% 42%  
50 9% 31%  
51 7% 22%  
52 5% 14%  
53 4% 9%  
54 2% 5%  
55 1.4% 3%  
56 0.8% 2%  
57 0.4% 0.7%  
58 0.2% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 0.5% 99.7%  
35 1.1% 99.2%  
36 2% 98%  
37 4% 96%  
38 5% 92%  
39 8% 87%  
40 10% 79%  
41 11% 69%  
42 12% 57% Median
43 11% 45%  
44 10% 34%  
45 8% 24%  
46 6% 16%  
47 4% 10%  
48 2% 6%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.8% 2%  
51 0.4% 0.7%  
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations