Opinion Poll by IFDD for PULS 24, 10–14 October 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 21.2% | 28.0% | 26.2–29.9% | 25.7–30.4% | 25.3–30.9% | 24.5–31.8% |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 16.2% | 24.0% | 22.4–25.8% | 21.9–26.3% | 21.5–26.8% | 20.7–27.6% |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 37.5% | 23.0% | 21.4–24.8% | 20.9–25.3% | 20.5–25.7% | 19.8–26.6% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 8.1% | 10.0% | 8.9–11.4% | 8.6–11.7% | 8.3–12.1% | 7.8–12.7% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 13.9% | 10.0% | 8.9–11.4% | 8.6–11.7% | 8.3–12.1% | 7.8–12.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 52 | 48–55 | 47–56 | 46–57 | 45–59 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 31 | 44 | 41–48 | 40–49 | 39–49 | 38–51 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 42 | 39–46 | 38–47 | 38–48 | 36–49 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 15 | 19 | 16–20 | 16–21 | 15–22 | 15–23 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 26 | 18 | 16–21 | 15–21 | 15–22 | 14–23 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 46 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 47 | 4% | 97% | |
| 48 | 6% | 94% | |
| 49 | 10% | 88% | |
| 50 | 13% | 78% | |
| 51 | 14% | 65% | |
| 52 | 14% | 51% | Median |
| 53 | 13% | 37% | |
| 54 | 9% | 24% | |
| 55 | 6% | 14% | |
| 56 | 4% | 8% | |
| 57 | 2% | 4% | |
| 58 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 59 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 39 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 40 | 4% | 97% | |
| 41 | 7% | 93% | |
| 42 | 11% | 86% | |
| 43 | 14% | 75% | |
| 44 | 16% | 61% | Median |
| 45 | 15% | 45% | |
| 46 | 12% | 31% | |
| 47 | 8% | 19% | |
| 48 | 5% | 10% | |
| 49 | 3% | 5% | |
| 50 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 51 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 37 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 38 | 3% | 98% | |
| 39 | 7% | 94% | |
| 40 | 10% | 87% | |
| 41 | 14% | 77% | |
| 42 | 16% | 63% | Median |
| 43 | 14% | 47% | |
| 44 | 12% | 32% | |
| 45 | 9% | 20% | |
| 46 | 6% | 11% | |
| 47 | 3% | 6% | |
| 48 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 49 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 50 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 15 | 4% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 16 | 25% | 96% | |
| 17 | 2% | 71% | |
| 18 | 2% | 69% | |
| 19 | 50% | 67% | Median |
| 20 | 12% | 17% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 22 | 3% | 5% | |
| 23 | 2% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 14 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 15 | 4% | 98.8% | |
| 16 | 10% | 94% | |
| 17 | 19% | 84% | |
| 18 | 22% | 66% | Median |
| 19 | 19% | 44% | |
| 20 | 14% | 24% | |
| 21 | 7% | 11% | |
| 22 | 3% | 4% | |
| 23 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 71 | 96 | 92% | 92–100 | 91–101 | 90–102 | 88–105 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei | 111 | 94 | 79% | 90–98 | 89–99 | 88–101 | 86–103 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 81 | 88 | 14% | 84–92 | 83–93 | 82–95 | 80–97 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei | 102 | 87 | 6% | 83–91 | 82–92 | 81–93 | 79–95 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 112 | 79 | 0% | 75–83 | 74–84 | 73–85 | 71–88 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 66 | 70 | 0% | 66–74 | 65–75 | 64–76 | 62–78 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 97 | 61 | 0% | 57–64 | 56–66 | 55–67 | 54–69 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 86 | 61 | 0% | 57–64 | 56–66 | 55–67 | 54–69 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 52 | 0% | 48–55 | 47–56 | 46–57 | 45–59 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 42 | 0% | 39–46 | 38–47 | 38–48 | 36–49 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 88 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 89 | 1.1% | 99.2% | |
| 90 | 2% | 98% | |
| 91 | 4% | 96% | |
| 92 | 6% | 92% | Majority |
| 93 | 9% | 86% | |
| 94 | 11% | 77% | |
| 95 | 13% | 66% | |
| 96 | 13% | 53% | Median |
| 97 | 12% | 41% | |
| 98 | 9% | 29% | |
| 99 | 7% | 19% | |
| 100 | 5% | 12% | |
| 101 | 3% | 7% | |
| 102 | 2% | 4% | |
| 103 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 104 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 105 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 84 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 86 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 87 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 88 | 2% | 98% | |
| 89 | 4% | 96% | |
| 90 | 6% | 93% | |
| 91 | 9% | 87% | |
| 92 | 11% | 79% | Majority |
| 93 | 13% | 68% | |
| 94 | 13% | 55% | Median |
| 95 | 12% | 42% | |
| 96 | 10% | 30% | |
| 97 | 7% | 20% | |
| 98 | 5% | 13% | |
| 99 | 3% | 8% | |
| 100 | 2% | 5% | |
| 101 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 102 | 0.7% | 1.5% | |
| 103 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 104 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 80 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 81 | 0.8% | 99.5% | Last Result |
| 82 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 83 | 3% | 97% | |
| 84 | 5% | 94% | |
| 85 | 8% | 89% | |
| 86 | 10% | 80% | |
| 87 | 12% | 70% | |
| 88 | 13% | 58% | |
| 89 | 12% | 45% | Median |
| 90 | 10% | 32% | |
| 91 | 8% | 22% | |
| 92 | 5% | 14% | Majority |
| 93 | 4% | 9% | |
| 94 | 2% | 5% | |
| 95 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 96 | 0.7% | 1.5% | |
| 97 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 98 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 77 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 79 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 80 | 1.2% | 99.1% | |
| 81 | 2% | 98% | |
| 82 | 4% | 95% | |
| 83 | 7% | 91% | |
| 84 | 9% | 84% | |
| 85 | 12% | 75% | |
| 86 | 13% | 63% | Median |
| 87 | 12% | 50% | |
| 88 | 11% | 38% | |
| 89 | 9% | 26% | |
| 90 | 7% | 17% | |
| 91 | 4% | 11% | |
| 92 | 3% | 6% | Majority |
| 93 | 2% | 4% | |
| 94 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 95 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 96 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 72 | 1.0% | 99.4% | |
| 73 | 2% | 98% | |
| 74 | 3% | 97% | |
| 75 | 6% | 93% | |
| 76 | 8% | 87% | |
| 77 | 12% | 79% | |
| 78 | 12% | 67% | |
| 79 | 13% | 55% | Median |
| 80 | 12% | 42% | |
| 81 | 10% | 30% | |
| 82 | 7% | 20% | |
| 83 | 5% | 13% | |
| 84 | 3% | 7% | |
| 85 | 2% | 4% | |
| 86 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 87 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 88 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 63 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 64 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 65 | 3% | 97% | |
| 66 | 6% | 93% | Last Result |
| 67 | 9% | 87% | |
| 68 | 11% | 78% | |
| 69 | 13% | 67% | |
| 70 | 13% | 54% | Median |
| 71 | 12% | 41% | |
| 72 | 10% | 29% | |
| 73 | 7% | 18% | |
| 74 | 5% | 11% | |
| 75 | 3% | 7% | |
| 76 | 2% | 3% | |
| 77 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 78 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 55 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 56 | 4% | 97% | |
| 57 | 6% | 93% | |
| 58 | 10% | 87% | |
| 59 | 12% | 77% | |
| 60 | 14% | 65% | Median |
| 61 | 14% | 51% | |
| 62 | 12% | 38% | |
| 63 | 9% | 25% | |
| 64 | 6% | 16% | |
| 65 | 4% | 9% | |
| 66 | 3% | 5% | |
| 67 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 68 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 69 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 54 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 55 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 56 | 4% | 97% | |
| 57 | 6% | 93% | |
| 58 | 9% | 87% | |
| 59 | 12% | 78% | |
| 60 | 13% | 65% | |
| 61 | 14% | 52% | Median |
| 62 | 12% | 38% | |
| 63 | 10% | 27% | |
| 64 | 7% | 16% | |
| 65 | 4% | 9% | |
| 66 | 3% | 5% | |
| 67 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 68 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 69 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 46 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 47 | 4% | 97% | |
| 48 | 6% | 94% | |
| 49 | 10% | 88% | |
| 50 | 13% | 78% | |
| 51 | 14% | 65% | |
| 52 | 14% | 51% | Median |
| 53 | 13% | 37% | |
| 54 | 9% | 24% | |
| 55 | 6% | 14% | |
| 56 | 4% | 8% | |
| 57 | 2% | 4% | |
| 58 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 59 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 37 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 38 | 3% | 98% | |
| 39 | 7% | 94% | |
| 40 | 10% | 87% | |
| 41 | 14% | 77% | |
| 42 | 16% | 63% | Median |
| 43 | 14% | 47% | |
| 44 | 12% | 32% | |
| 45 | 9% | 20% | |
| 46 | 6% | 11% | |
| 47 | 3% | 6% | |
| 48 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 49 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 50 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: IFDD
- Commissioner(s): PULS 24
- Fieldwork period: 10–14 October 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1007
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.56%