Opinion Poll by OGM, 16–18 January 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 27.0% 25.3–28.9% 24.8–29.4% 24.4–29.9% 23.6–30.8%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 25.0% 23.4–26.9% 22.9–27.4% 22.5–27.8% 21.7–28.7%
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 22.0% 20.3–23.7% 19.9–24.2% 19.5–24.6% 18.7–25.5%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 11.0% 9.8–12.3% 9.5–12.7% 9.2–13.1% 8.6–13.7%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 10.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.5–11.7% 8.3–12.0% 7.8–12.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 50 46–53 45–54 45–55 43–57
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 46 43–49 42–50 41–51 40–53
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 40 37–44 36–45 36–45 34–47
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 20 18–22 17–23 17–24 16–25
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 18 16–20 15–21 15–22 14–23

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100% Last Result
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 0.5% 99.8%  
44 1.4% 99.3%  
45 3% 98%  
46 5% 95%  
47 9% 90%  
48 12% 80%  
49 15% 68%  
50 15% 53% Median
51 13% 39%  
52 10% 26%  
53 7% 16%  
54 4% 8%  
55 2% 4%  
56 1.1% 2%  
57 0.5% 0.8%  
58 0.2% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 0.9% 99.6% Last Result
41 2% 98.7%  
42 4% 97%  
43 8% 92%  
44 11% 84%  
45 14% 73%  
46 16% 59% Median
47 14% 43%  
48 11% 29%  
49 8% 17%  
50 5% 10%  
51 3% 5%  
52 1.2% 2%  
53 0.6% 0.9%  
54 0.2% 0.3%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.5% 99.8%  
35 1.4% 99.3%  
36 3% 98%  
37 7% 94%  
38 11% 88%  
39 15% 77%  
40 16% 63% Median
41 15% 47%  
42 12% 31%  
43 9% 19%  
44 5% 10%  
45 3% 5%  
46 1.4% 2%  
47 0.5% 0.8%  
48 0.2% 0.3%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.4% 99.9% Last Result
16 2% 99.5%  
17 6% 98%  
18 13% 92%  
19 19% 79%  
20 21% 60% Median
21 18% 39%  
22 11% 21%  
23 6% 9%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.8% 1.1%  
26 0.2% 0.3%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 1.2% 99.8%  
15 5% 98.6%  
16 11% 94%  
17 18% 83%  
18 23% 65% Median
19 19% 41%  
20 12% 22%  
21 6% 10%  
22 2% 4%  
23 0.8% 1.0%  
24 0.2% 0.3%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 71 96 93% 92–100 91–101 90–102 88–105
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei 102 90 32% 86–94 85–95 84–96 82–99
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei 111 86 5% 83–90 81–92 81–93 79–95
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 81 84 1.4% 80–88 79–89 78–91 77–93
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 112 78 0% 75–82 74–84 73–85 71–87
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 64 0% 61–68 60–69 59–70 57–72
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 60 0% 57–64 56–65 55–66 53–68
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 58 0% 55–62 54–63 53–64 52–66
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 46 0% 43–49 42–50 41–51 40–53
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 40 0% 37–44 36–45 36–45 34–47

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.2% 99.9%  
88 0.5% 99.7%  
89 1.0% 99.3%  
90 2% 98%  
91 4% 96%  
92 6% 93% Majority
93 9% 86%  
94 11% 78%  
95 13% 67%  
96 13% 54% Median
97 12% 41%  
98 10% 29%  
99 7% 19%  
100 5% 12%  
101 3% 7%  
102 2% 4%  
103 1.0% 2%  
104 0.5% 1.2%  
105 0.3% 0.6%  
106 0.2% 0.3%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.3% 99.8%  
83 0.8% 99.5%  
84 2% 98.6%  
85 3% 97%  
86 5% 94%  
87 8% 88%  
88 11% 80%  
89 12% 70%  
90 13% 58% Median
91 13% 45%  
92 10% 32% Majority
93 9% 22%  
94 5% 13%  
95 4% 8%  
96 2% 5%  
97 1.1% 2%  
98 0.6% 1.3%  
99 0.4% 0.7%  
100 0.1% 0.3%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0% 0.1% Last Result
103 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.3% 99.9%  
79 0.6% 99.6%  
80 1.3% 99.0%  
81 3% 98%  
82 5% 95%  
83 7% 90%  
84 10% 83%  
85 12% 73%  
86 13% 61% Median
87 12% 48%  
88 12% 36%  
89 8% 24%  
90 6% 16%  
91 4% 10%  
92 3% 5% Majority
93 2% 3%  
94 0.7% 1.4%  
95 0.3% 0.7%  
96 0.2% 0.4%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.3% 99.8%  
77 0.7% 99.5%  
78 1.5% 98.8%  
79 3% 97%  
80 5% 94%  
81 8% 90% Last Result
82 9% 81%  
83 13% 72%  
84 12% 59% Median
85 13% 47%  
86 11% 34%  
87 8% 23%  
88 6% 15%  
89 4% 9%  
90 2% 5%  
91 1.2% 3%  
92 0.7% 1.4% Majority
93 0.4% 0.7%  
94 0.2% 0.3%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.5% 99.7%  
72 1.2% 99.2%  
73 2% 98%  
74 4% 96%  
75 7% 91%  
76 10% 85%  
77 12% 75%  
78 13% 63% Median
79 13% 50%  
80 11% 37%  
81 9% 25%  
82 6% 16%  
83 4% 10%  
84 3% 5%  
85 1.4% 3%  
86 0.8% 1.5%  
87 0.4% 0.7%  
88 0.2% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.5% 99.7%  
58 1.2% 99.2%  
59 3% 98%  
60 5% 95%  
61 8% 91%  
62 10% 83%  
63 13% 73%  
64 13% 60% Median
65 14% 46%  
66 11% 33% Last Result
67 8% 22%  
68 6% 13%  
69 4% 7%  
70 2% 4%  
71 1.1% 2%  
72 0.5% 0.8%  
73 0.2% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.4% 99.8%  
54 1.0% 99.4%  
55 2% 98%  
56 5% 96%  
57 7% 91%  
58 10% 84%  
59 13% 74%  
60 14% 61% Median
61 13% 47%  
62 11% 34%  
63 9% 23%  
64 6% 14%  
65 4% 7%  
66 2% 4%  
67 1.1% 2%  
68 0.5% 0.8%  
69 0.2% 0.3%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.3% 99.8%  
52 0.9% 99.5%  
53 2% 98.6%  
54 4% 97%  
55 7% 93%  
56 10% 86%  
57 13% 76%  
58 14% 64% Median
59 14% 50%  
60 12% 36%  
61 9% 24%  
62 6% 14%  
63 4% 8%  
64 2% 4%  
65 1.1% 2%  
66 0.5% 0.9%  
67 0.2% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 0.9% 99.6% Last Result
41 2% 98.7%  
42 4% 97%  
43 8% 92%  
44 11% 84%  
45 14% 73%  
46 16% 59% Median
47 14% 43%  
48 11% 29%  
49 8% 17%  
50 5% 10%  
51 3% 5%  
52 1.2% 2%  
53 0.6% 0.9%  
54 0.2% 0.3%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.5% 99.8%  
35 1.4% 99.3%  
36 3% 98%  
37 7% 94%  
38 11% 88%  
39 15% 77%  
40 16% 63% Median
41 15% 47%  
42 12% 31%  
43 9% 19%  
44 5% 10%  
45 3% 5%  
46 1.4% 2%  
47 0.5% 0.8%  
48 0.2% 0.3%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations