Opinion Poll by INSA for eXXpress, 6–9 February 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 16.2% | 28.0% | 26.2–29.9% | 25.7–30.4% | 25.3–30.9% | 24.5–31.8% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 21.2% | 24.0% | 22.3–25.8% | 21.9–26.3% | 21.4–26.7% | 20.7–27.6% |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 37.5% | 21.0% | 19.4–22.7% | 19.0–23.2% | 18.6–23.6% | 17.8–24.5% |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 8.1% | 11.0% | 9.8–12.4% | 9.5–12.8% | 9.2–13.1% | 8.7–13.8% |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 13.9% | 10.0% | 8.9–11.3% | 8.6–11.7% | 8.3–12.0% | 7.8–12.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs | 31 | 51 | 48–55 | 47–56 | 46–57 | 45–58 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 44 | 41–47 | 40–48 | 39–49 | 38–51 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 38 | 35–42 | 35–43 | 34–43 | 33–45 |
| NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 15 | 20 | 18–22 | 17–23 | 17–24 | 16–25 |
| Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 26 | 18 | 16–20 | 15–21 | 15–22 | 14–23 |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 46 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 47 | 4% | 97% | |
| 48 | 7% | 94% | |
| 49 | 10% | 87% | |
| 50 | 13% | 77% | |
| 51 | 15% | 64% | Median |
| 52 | 15% | 49% | |
| 53 | 13% | 35% | |
| 54 | 9% | 22% | |
| 55 | 6% | 13% | |
| 56 | 3% | 6% | |
| 57 | 2% | 3% | |
| 58 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 59 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 39 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 40 | 4% | 97% | Last Result |
| 41 | 8% | 92% | |
| 42 | 12% | 85% | |
| 43 | 15% | 73% | |
| 44 | 15% | 58% | Median |
| 45 | 15% | 43% | |
| 46 | 12% | 28% | |
| 47 | 8% | 16% | |
| 48 | 5% | 9% | |
| 49 | 2% | 4% | |
| 50 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 51 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 1.1% | 99.5% | |
| 34 | 3% | 98% | |
| 35 | 6% | 96% | |
| 36 | 9% | 90% | |
| 37 | 15% | 80% | |
| 38 | 16% | 66% | Median |
| 39 | 17% | 50% | |
| 40 | 13% | 33% | |
| 41 | 10% | 20% | |
| 42 | 5% | 10% | |
| 43 | 3% | 5% | |
| 44 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 45 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.4% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 16 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 17 | 6% | 98% | |
| 18 | 12% | 92% | |
| 19 | 20% | 79% | |
| 20 | 21% | 60% | Median |
| 21 | 18% | 38% | |
| 22 | 11% | 20% | |
| 23 | 6% | 9% | |
| 24 | 2% | 3% | |
| 25 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 14 | 1.2% | 99.8% | |
| 15 | 4% | 98.6% | |
| 16 | 11% | 94% | |
| 17 | 19% | 83% | |
| 18 | 23% | 64% | Median |
| 19 | 19% | 41% | |
| 20 | 13% | 23% | |
| 21 | 7% | 10% | |
| 22 | 2% | 3% | |
| 23 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 71 | 96 | 91% | 92–99 | 91–100 | 90–101 | 88–103 |
| Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei | 102 | 90 | 30% | 86–94 | 85–95 | 84–96 | 82–98 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 81 | 82 | 0.1% | 78–86 | 77–87 | 77–88 | 75–90 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei | 111 | 83 | 0.1% | 79–86 | 78–87 | 77–88 | 75–90 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 112 | 77 | 0% | 73–80 | 72–82 | 71–82 | 69–84 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 66 | 62 | 0% | 59–66 | 58–67 | 57–68 | 55–70 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum | 86 | 59 | 0% | 55–62 | 54–63 | 53–64 | 52–66 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative | 97 | 57 | 0% | 53–60 | 52–61 | 51–62 | 50–64 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs | 40 | 44 | 0% | 41–47 | 40–48 | 39–49 | 38–51 |
| Österreichische Volkspartei | 71 | 38 | 0% | 35–42 | 35–43 | 34–43 | 33–45 |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 88 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 89 | 1.2% | 99.1% | |
| 90 | 2% | 98% | |
| 91 | 4% | 96% | |
| 92 | 7% | 91% | Majority |
| 93 | 9% | 85% | |
| 94 | 12% | 75% | |
| 95 | 13% | 63% | Median |
| 96 | 13% | 50% | |
| 97 | 12% | 37% | |
| 98 | 9% | 25% | |
| 99 | 7% | 16% | |
| 100 | 4% | 9% | |
| 101 | 3% | 5% | |
| 102 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 103 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 104 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% |
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 82 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 83 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 84 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 85 | 3% | 97% | |
| 86 | 5% | 94% | |
| 87 | 8% | 88% | |
| 88 | 11% | 80% | |
| 89 | 13% | 69% | Median |
| 90 | 13% | 56% | |
| 91 | 13% | 43% | |
| 92 | 11% | 30% | Majority |
| 93 | 8% | 20% | |
| 94 | 5% | 12% | |
| 95 | 3% | 6% | |
| 96 | 2% | 3% | |
| 97 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 98 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 75 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 76 | 1.4% | 98.9% | |
| 77 | 3% | 98% | |
| 78 | 5% | 95% | |
| 79 | 7% | 90% | |
| 80 | 10% | 83% | |
| 81 | 12% | 72% | Last Result |
| 82 | 14% | 60% | Median |
| 83 | 13% | 46% | |
| 84 | 12% | 34% | |
| 85 | 8% | 22% | |
| 86 | 6% | 14% | |
| 87 | 4% | 7% | |
| 88 | 2% | 4% | |
| 89 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 90 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 75 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 76 | 1.1% | 99.2% | |
| 77 | 2% | 98% | |
| 78 | 4% | 96% | |
| 79 | 7% | 92% | |
| 80 | 9% | 85% | |
| 81 | 12% | 76% | |
| 82 | 14% | 65% | Median |
| 83 | 13% | 51% | |
| 84 | 12% | 37% | |
| 85 | 9% | 26% | |
| 86 | 7% | 16% | |
| 87 | 4% | 9% | |
| 88 | 3% | 5% | |
| 89 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 90 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 69 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 70 | 1.0% | 99.4% | |
| 71 | 2% | 98% | |
| 72 | 4% | 96% | |
| 73 | 6% | 93% | |
| 74 | 9% | 87% | |
| 75 | 12% | 77% | |
| 76 | 13% | 66% | Median |
| 77 | 13% | 53% | |
| 78 | 13% | 39% | |
| 79 | 10% | 27% | |
| 80 | 7% | 17% | |
| 81 | 5% | 10% | |
| 82 | 3% | 5% | |
| 83 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 84 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 85 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 56 | 1.1% | 99.3% | |
| 57 | 3% | 98% | |
| 58 | 4% | 96% | |
| 59 | 8% | 91% | |
| 60 | 10% | 84% | |
| 61 | 13% | 73% | |
| 62 | 14% | 60% | Median |
| 63 | 13% | 46% | |
| 64 | 12% | 33% | |
| 65 | 9% | 21% | |
| 66 | 6% | 12% | Last Result |
| 67 | 3% | 6% | |
| 68 | 2% | 3% | |
| 69 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 70 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 53 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 54 | 4% | 97% | |
| 55 | 7% | 93% | |
| 56 | 10% | 87% | |
| 57 | 13% | 77% | |
| 58 | 14% | 64% | Median |
| 59 | 14% | 50% | |
| 60 | 12% | 36% | |
| 61 | 10% | 24% | |
| 62 | 7% | 14% | |
| 63 | 4% | 7% | |
| 64 | 2% | 4% | |
| 65 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 66 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 51 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 52 | 3% | 97% | |
| 53 | 6% | 94% | |
| 54 | 9% | 88% | |
| 55 | 13% | 79% | |
| 56 | 14% | 66% | Median |
| 57 | 14% | 52% | |
| 58 | 13% | 38% | |
| 59 | 11% | 26% | |
| 60 | 7% | 15% | |
| 61 | 4% | 8% | |
| 62 | 2% | 4% | |
| 63 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 64 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 39 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 40 | 4% | 97% | Last Result |
| 41 | 8% | 92% | |
| 42 | 12% | 85% | |
| 43 | 15% | 73% | |
| 44 | 15% | 58% | Median |
| 45 | 15% | 43% | |
| 46 | 12% | 28% | |
| 47 | 8% | 16% | |
| 48 | 5% | 9% | |
| 49 | 2% | 4% | |
| 50 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 51 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
Österreichische Volkspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 1.1% | 99.5% | |
| 34 | 3% | 98% | |
| 35 | 6% | 96% | |
| 36 | 9% | 90% | |
| 37 | 15% | 80% | |
| 38 | 16% | 66% | Median |
| 39 | 17% | 50% | |
| 40 | 13% | 33% | |
| 41 | 10% | 20% | |
| 42 | 5% | 10% | |
| 43 | 3% | 5% | |
| 44 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 45 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: INSA
- Commissioner(s): eXXpress
- Fieldwork period: 6–9 February 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.64%