Opinion Poll by Unique Research for profil, 13–16 February 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 29.0% 27.0–31.1% 26.4–31.7% 26.0–32.2% 25.0–33.3%
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 24.0% 22.1–26.0% 21.6–26.6% 21.2–27.1% 20.3–28.1%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 24.0% 22.1–26.0% 21.6–26.6% 21.2–27.1% 20.3–28.1%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 10.0% 8.8–11.5% 8.4–11.9% 8.1–12.3% 7.5–13.0%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 10.0% 8.8–11.5% 8.4–11.9% 8.1–12.3% 7.5–13.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 55 51–59 50–60 49–61 47–63
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 45 41–49 40–50 40–51 38–53
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 45 42–49 40–50 40–51 38–53
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 20 16–20 16–21 15–24 15–24
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 19 16–21 15–22 15–23 14–24

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100% Last Result
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.5% 99.6%  
48 1.4% 99.1%  
49 2% 98%  
50 4% 95%  
51 6% 91%  
52 10% 85%  
53 10% 75%  
54 14% 65%  
55 13% 52% Median
56 11% 39%  
57 11% 28%  
58 6% 17%  
59 5% 11%  
60 3% 6%  
61 2% 3%  
62 0.7% 1.4%  
63 0.4% 0.7%  
64 0.2% 0.2%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 0.6% 99.7%  
39 1.2% 99.1%  
40 3% 98%  
41 5% 95%  
42 7% 90%  
43 11% 82%  
44 13% 71%  
45 13% 58% Median
46 14% 45%  
47 11% 32%  
48 8% 21%  
49 6% 13%  
50 4% 7%  
51 2% 4%  
52 0.9% 2%  
53 0.5% 0.7%  
54 0.2% 0.3%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 0.6% 99.7%  
39 1.4% 99.1%  
40 3% 98% Last Result
41 4% 95%  
42 7% 90%  
43 12% 83%  
44 14% 71%  
45 11% 57% Median
46 13% 46%  
47 12% 33%  
48 9% 21%  
49 5% 12%  
50 3% 7%  
51 2% 4%  
52 1.1% 2%  
53 0.3% 0.6%  
54 0.2% 0.3%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.1% 99.9%  
14 0% 99.8%  
15 3% 99.8% Last Result
16 25% 97%  
17 6% 72%  
18 0.1% 66%  
19 13% 65%  
20 45% 53% Median
21 3% 8%  
22 0% 4%  
23 2% 4%  
24 3% 3%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.3% 100%  
14 1.1% 99.7%  
15 4% 98.5%  
16 9% 95%  
17 16% 86%  
18 18% 70%  
19 18% 52% Median
20 15% 34%  
21 10% 19%  
22 5% 9%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.8% 1.2%  
25 0.3% 0.4%  
26 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 71 100 99.0% 95–104 94–106 93–107 91–109
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei 102 100 98.9% 95–104 94–105 93–107 90–109
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei 111 90 37% 86–95 85–96 83–97 81–99
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 81 83 0.5% 78–87 77–88 76–89 74–91
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 112 83 0.4% 78–87 77–88 76–89 74–91
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 64 0% 60–68 58–69 58–70 56–72
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 64 0% 60–68 59–69 58–70 56–72
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 64 0% 60–68 59–69 57–70 56–72
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 45 0% 42–49 40–50 40–51 38–53
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 45 0% 41–49 40–50 40–51 38–53

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.3% 99.8%  
91 0.5% 99.5%  
92 1.0% 99.0% Majority
93 2% 98%  
94 3% 96%  
95 4% 93%  
96 6% 89%  
97 8% 83%  
98 9% 75%  
99 12% 66%  
100 12% 54% Median
101 11% 43%  
102 9% 32%  
103 9% 23%  
104 5% 14%  
105 4% 9%  
106 2% 5%  
107 1.4% 3%  
108 0.6% 1.2%  
109 0.4% 0.6%  
110 0.1% 0.2%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.3% 99.8%  
91 0.6% 99.5%  
92 0.9% 98.9% Majority
93 2% 98%  
94 3% 96%  
95 5% 94%  
96 7% 89%  
97 6% 82%  
98 10% 76%  
99 12% 66%  
100 12% 54% Median
101 9% 42%  
102 10% 33% Last Result
103 8% 23%  
104 5% 14%  
105 4% 9%  
106 2% 5%  
107 2% 3%  
108 0.7% 1.2%  
109 0.3% 0.5%  
110 0.1% 0.2%  
111 0.1% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.3% 99.7%  
82 0.7% 99.4%  
83 1.3% 98.7%  
84 2% 97%  
85 3% 95%  
86 6% 92%  
87 6% 87%  
88 9% 81%  
89 12% 71%  
90 10% 59% Median
91 11% 48%  
92 10% 37% Majority
93 8% 27%  
94 7% 19%  
95 5% 11%  
96 3% 7%  
97 2% 4%  
98 1.1% 2%  
99 0.4% 0.8%  
100 0.3% 0.4%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.8%  
74 0.6% 99.6%  
75 1.0% 99.0%  
76 2% 98%  
77 3% 96%  
78 5% 93%  
79 6% 88%  
80 9% 82%  
81 11% 73% Last Result
82 9% 62%  
83 12% 52%  
84 11% 40% Median
85 10% 28%  
86 6% 19%  
87 6% 13%  
88 4% 7%  
89 2% 4%  
90 1.1% 2%  
91 0.5% 0.9%  
92 0.3% 0.5% Majority
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.3% 99.8%  
74 0.6% 99.6%  
75 1.0% 98.9%  
76 2% 98%  
77 3% 96%  
78 5% 93%  
79 6% 88%  
80 10% 82%  
81 10% 72%  
82 11% 63%  
83 12% 51%  
84 11% 40% Median
85 9% 28%  
86 7% 20%  
87 5% 12%  
88 3% 7%  
89 2% 4%  
90 1.1% 2%  
91 0.6% 1.0%  
92 0.2% 0.4% Majority
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.3% 99.8%  
56 0.7% 99.5%  
57 1.3% 98.9%  
58 3% 98%  
59 3% 95%  
60 7% 91%  
61 8% 85%  
62 11% 76%  
63 10% 66%  
64 15% 56% Median
65 11% 41%  
66 8% 30% Last Result
67 9% 22%  
68 6% 13%  
69 3% 7%  
70 2% 5%  
71 1.2% 2%  
72 0.6% 1.0%  
73 0.2% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.3% 99.8%  
56 0.6% 99.5%  
57 1.3% 98.9%  
58 2% 98%  
59 4% 95%  
60 7% 91%  
61 8% 84%  
62 11% 77%  
63 12% 66%  
64 13% 54% Median
65 11% 41%  
66 9% 30%  
67 8% 21%  
68 6% 13%  
69 3% 8%  
70 2% 4%  
71 1.1% 2%  
72 0.6% 1.0%  
73 0.3% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.3% 99.8%  
56 0.7% 99.5%  
57 1.4% 98.8%  
58 2% 97%  
59 4% 95%  
60 6% 91%  
61 8% 85%  
62 10% 77%  
63 11% 66%  
64 13% 56%  
65 11% 42% Median
66 10% 31%  
67 8% 21%  
68 5% 13%  
69 4% 8%  
70 2% 4%  
71 1.2% 2%  
72 0.6% 1.0%  
73 0.2% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 0.6% 99.7%  
39 1.4% 99.1%  
40 3% 98% Last Result
41 4% 95%  
42 7% 90%  
43 12% 83%  
44 14% 71%  
45 11% 57% Median
46 13% 46%  
47 12% 33%  
48 9% 21%  
49 5% 12%  
50 3% 7%  
51 2% 4%  
52 1.1% 2%  
53 0.3% 0.6%  
54 0.2% 0.3%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 0.6% 99.7%  
39 1.2% 99.1%  
40 3% 98%  
41 5% 95%  
42 7% 90%  
43 11% 82%  
44 13% 71%  
45 13% 58% Median
46 14% 45%  
47 11% 32%  
48 8% 21%  
49 6% 13%  
50 4% 7%  
51 2% 4%  
52 0.9% 2%  
53 0.5% 0.7%  
54 0.2% 0.3%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations