Opinion Poll by Market for Der Standard, 17–21 February 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 28.0% 26.0–30.1% 25.5–30.7% 25.0–31.2% 24.1–32.3%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 24.0% 22.1–26.0% 21.6–26.6% 21.2–27.1% 20.3–28.1%
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 22.0% 20.2–24.0% 19.7–24.5% 19.3–25.0% 18.4–26.0%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 11.0% 9.7–12.5% 9.3–13.0% 9.0–13.4% 8.4–14.1%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 10.0% 8.7–11.5% 8.4–11.9% 8.1–12.3% 7.5–13.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 52 48–55 47–57 46–58 44–60
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 44 41–48 40–49 39–50 37–52
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 40 37–44 36–45 35–46 34–48
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 20 17–23 17–24 16–24 15–26
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 18 16–21 15–22 15–22 13–24

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100% Last Result
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 0.5% 99.7%  
45 1.1% 99.2%  
46 2% 98%  
47 4% 96%  
48 7% 91%  
49 10% 84%  
50 12% 75%  
51 13% 63%  
52 13% 50% Median
53 12% 37%  
54 9% 25%  
55 7% 16%  
56 4% 10%  
57 3% 5%  
58 1.5% 3%  
59 0.7% 1.3%  
60 0.4% 0.6%  
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 0.5% 99.8%  
38 1.4% 99.2%  
39 3% 98%  
40 5% 95% Last Result
41 8% 90%  
42 10% 82%  
43 13% 72%  
44 14% 59% Median
45 13% 44%  
46 11% 31%  
47 8% 20%  
48 6% 12%  
49 3% 7%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.9% 2%  
52 0.4% 0.7%  
53 0.2% 0.3%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.3% 99.9%  
34 0.8% 99.6%  
35 2% 98.7%  
36 4% 97%  
37 7% 93%  
38 10% 86%  
39 13% 76%  
40 14% 63% Median
41 14% 49%  
42 12% 34%  
43 9% 22%  
44 6% 14%  
45 4% 7%  
46 2% 4%  
47 1.0% 2%  
48 0.4% 0.7%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.7% 99.8% Last Result
16 3% 99.1%  
17 7% 96%  
18 13% 90%  
19 16% 77%  
20 19% 60% Median
21 17% 42%  
22 12% 25%  
23 8% 13%  
24 3% 5%  
25 1.4% 2%  
26 0.5% 0.7%  
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.4% 99.9%  
14 2% 99.5%  
15 5% 98%  
16 11% 92%  
17 18% 81%  
18 20% 63% Median
19 18% 43%  
20 13% 26%  
21 7% 13%  
22 4% 6%  
23 1.4% 2%  
24 0.5% 0.7%  
25 0.1% 0.2%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 71 96 89% 91–100 90–102 89–103 87–106
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei 102 92 55% 88–96 86–98 85–99 83–102
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei 111 85 3% 80–89 79–90 78–92 76–94
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 81 82 0.7% 78–87 77–88 76–89 74–92
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 112 79 0% 75–83 73–84 72–86 70–88
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 62 0% 58–67 57–68 56–69 54–71
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 60 0% 56–65 55–66 54–67 53–69
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 59 0% 55–63 54–64 53–65 51–67
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 44 0% 41–48 40–49 39–50 37–52
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 40 0% 37–44 36–45 35–46 34–48

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0.1% 100%  
86 0.2% 99.9%  
87 0.5% 99.7%  
88 0.9% 99.2%  
89 2% 98%  
90 3% 97%  
91 5% 94%  
92 7% 89% Majority
93 9% 82%  
94 10% 73%  
95 10% 62%  
96 12% 52% Median
97 10% 40%  
98 9% 30%  
99 7% 21%  
100 5% 14%  
101 4% 9%  
102 2% 5%  
103 1.1% 3%  
104 1.0% 2%  
105 0.4% 0.9%  
106 0.2% 0.5%  
107 0.2% 0.3%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.3% 99.8%  
84 0.7% 99.4%  
85 1.4% 98.7%  
86 2% 97%  
87 4% 95%  
88 6% 91%  
89 9% 85%  
90 10% 76%  
91 11% 66%  
92 12% 55% Median, Majority
93 11% 43%  
94 9% 32%  
95 7% 23%  
96 6% 16%  
97 4% 10%  
98 2% 6%  
99 2% 4%  
100 0.9% 2%  
101 0.5% 1.1%  
102 0.3% 0.6% Last Result
103 0.2% 0.3%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.2% 99.9%  
76 0.5% 99.7%  
77 0.9% 99.2%  
78 2% 98%  
79 3% 96%  
80 5% 93%  
81 7% 89%  
82 9% 82%  
83 11% 73%  
84 11% 62% Median
85 12% 51%  
86 10% 39%  
87 9% 29%  
88 7% 19%  
89 5% 13%  
90 3% 8%  
91 2% 5%  
92 1.2% 3% Majority
93 0.7% 1.5%  
94 0.4% 0.8%  
95 0.2% 0.4%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 0.5% 99.7%  
75 1.0% 99.2%  
76 2% 98%  
77 3% 96%  
78 5% 93%  
79 7% 88%  
80 9% 81%  
81 10% 71% Last Result
82 12% 61% Median
83 12% 49%  
84 11% 38%  
85 8% 27%  
86 7% 19%  
87 4% 12%  
88 3% 8%  
89 2% 4%  
90 1.2% 2%  
91 0.6% 1.3%  
92 0.3% 0.7% Majority
93 0.2% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.5% 99.8%  
71 0.6% 99.3%  
72 2% 98.7%  
73 3% 97%  
74 3% 94%  
75 8% 91%  
76 9% 83%  
77 8% 73%  
78 14% 66% Median
79 12% 52%  
80 8% 40%  
81 11% 32%  
82 7% 20%  
83 4% 13%  
84 4% 9%  
85 2% 5%  
86 1.2% 3%  
87 0.8% 2%  
88 0.4% 0.7%  
89 0.2% 0.4%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.3% 99.8%  
55 0.8% 99.4%  
56 2% 98.7%  
57 3% 97%  
58 5% 94%  
59 7% 89%  
60 10% 82%  
61 12% 72%  
62 12% 60% Median
63 12% 48%  
64 11% 36%  
65 9% 25%  
66 6% 17% Last Result
67 4% 10%  
68 3% 6%  
69 1.5% 3%  
70 0.9% 2%  
71 0.4% 0.8%  
72 0.2% 0.4%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.3% 99.8%  
53 0.7% 99.6%  
54 1.4% 98.9%  
55 3% 97%  
56 5% 95%  
57 7% 90%  
58 10% 83%  
59 11% 73%  
60 13% 62% Median
61 12% 50%  
62 11% 38%  
63 9% 27%  
64 7% 18%  
65 5% 11%  
66 3% 6%  
67 2% 3%  
68 0.9% 2%  
69 0.4% 0.8%  
70 0.2% 0.4%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.2% 99.9%  
51 0.6% 99.7%  
52 1.3% 99.1%  
53 2% 98%  
54 4% 95%  
55 7% 91%  
56 9% 84%  
57 11% 75%  
58 12% 64% Median
59 13% 52%  
60 11% 39%  
61 9% 28%  
62 7% 19%  
63 5% 11%  
64 3% 7%  
65 2% 4%  
66 1.0% 2%  
67 0.5% 0.9%  
68 0.2% 0.4%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 0.5% 99.8%  
38 1.4% 99.2%  
39 3% 98%  
40 5% 95% Last Result
41 8% 90%  
42 10% 82%  
43 13% 72%  
44 14% 59% Median
45 13% 44%  
46 11% 31%  
47 8% 20%  
48 6% 12%  
49 3% 7%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.9% 2%  
52 0.4% 0.7%  
53 0.2% 0.3%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.3% 99.9%  
34 0.8% 99.6%  
35 2% 98.7%  
36 4% 97%  
37 7% 93%  
38 10% 86%  
39 13% 76%  
40 14% 63% Median
41 14% 49%  
42 12% 34%  
43 9% 22%  
44 6% 14%  
45 4% 7%  
46 2% 4%  
47 1.0% 2%  
48 0.4% 0.7%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations