Opinion Poll by INSA for eXXpress, 6–9 March 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 27.0% 25.3–28.9% 24.8–29.4% 24.3–29.8% 23.5–30.7%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 26.0% 24.3–27.8% 23.8–28.4% 23.4–28.8% 22.6–29.7%
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 22.0% 20.4–23.7% 19.9–24.2% 19.5–24.7% 18.8–25.5%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 10.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.6–11.7% 8.3–12.0% 7.8–12.7%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 50 46–53 45–54 45–55 43–56
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 48 44–51 44–52 43–53 41–55
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 40 37–43 36–44 36–45 34–47
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 18 16–20 15–21 15–22 14–23
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 16 14–19 14–19 13–20 12–21

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100% Last Result
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 0.6% 99.8%  
44 1.5% 99.2%  
45 3% 98%  
46 6% 94%  
47 9% 88%  
48 13% 79%  
49 15% 66%  
50 15% 52% Median
51 13% 36%  
52 10% 23%  
53 6% 14%  
54 4% 7%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.8% 1.3%  
57 0.3% 0.5%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100% Last Result
41 0.4% 99.8%  
42 1.3% 99.4%  
43 3% 98%  
44 5% 95%  
45 9% 90%  
46 12% 81%  
47 15% 69%  
48 15% 54% Median
49 14% 39%  
50 10% 25%  
51 7% 15%  
52 4% 8%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.9% 1.4%  
55 0.4% 0.5%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.5% 99.8%  
35 1.4% 99.4%  
36 3% 98%  
37 6% 95%  
38 11% 88%  
39 14% 77%  
40 16% 63% Median
41 15% 47%  
42 12% 31%  
43 9% 19%  
44 5% 10%  
45 3% 5%  
46 1.2% 2%  
47 0.5% 0.7%  
48 0.2% 0.2%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 1.2% 99.8%  
15 5% 98.6% Last Result
16 11% 94%  
17 18% 83%  
18 23% 64% Median
19 19% 41%  
20 13% 22%  
21 6% 10%  
22 2% 3%  
23 0.8% 1.0%  
24 0.2% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.7% 99.9%  
13 3% 99.2%  
14 9% 96%  
15 19% 87%  
16 23% 67% Median
17 21% 44%  
18 13% 23%  
19 7% 10%  
20 2% 3%  
21 0.8% 1.0%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 71 97 98% 94–101 93–102 92–103 90–105
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei 102 90 30% 86–94 85–95 84–96 82–98
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei 111 88 13% 84–92 83–93 82–94 81–96
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 81 82 0.1% 78–86 77–87 77–88 75–90
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 112 75 0% 71–79 70–80 69–81 67–82
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 64 0% 60–68 60–69 59–70 57–71
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 58 0% 55–62 54–63 53–64 52–66
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 57 0% 53–60 52–61 51–62 50–64
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 48 0% 44–51 44–52 43–53 41–55
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 40 0% 37–43 36–44 36–45 34–47

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0.3% 99.9%  
90 0.6% 99.6%  
91 1.4% 99.0%  
92 3% 98% Majority
93 4% 95%  
94 7% 91%  
95 9% 84%  
96 12% 75%  
97 13% 63%  
98 14% 49% Median
99 11% 35%  
100 9% 24%  
101 7% 15%  
102 4% 8%  
103 2% 4%  
104 1.1% 2%  
105 0.5% 0.7%  
106 0.2% 0.3%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.3% 99.8%  
83 0.9% 99.5%  
84 2% 98.6%  
85 3% 97%  
86 5% 94%  
87 9% 88%  
88 11% 79%  
89 12% 68%  
90 12% 56% Median
91 13% 44%  
92 11% 30% Majority
93 7% 19%  
94 5% 12%  
95 3% 6%  
96 2% 3%  
97 0.8% 1.3%  
98 0.3% 0.5%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.3% 99.8%  
81 0.7% 99.5%  
82 2% 98.8%  
83 3% 97%  
84 5% 94%  
85 7% 89%  
86 11% 82%  
87 13% 71%  
88 13% 58% Median
89 13% 45%  
90 10% 32%  
91 8% 21%  
92 6% 13% Majority
93 3% 7%  
94 2% 3%  
95 0.9% 2%  
96 0.4% 0.6%  
97 0.2% 0.2%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.3% 99.9%  
75 0.7% 99.6%  
76 1.4% 99.0%  
77 3% 98%  
78 5% 95%  
79 7% 90%  
80 10% 83%  
81 12% 73% Last Result
82 14% 60% Median
83 13% 47%  
84 11% 34%  
85 9% 22%  
86 6% 14%  
87 4% 8%  
88 2% 4%  
89 1.0% 2%  
90 0.4% 0.7%  
91 0.2% 0.3%  
92 0.1% 0.1% Majority
93 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.3% 99.8%  
68 0.9% 99.5%  
69 2% 98.6%  
70 3% 97%  
71 6% 94%  
72 9% 88%  
73 11% 79%  
74 14% 68% Median
75 15% 54%  
76 12% 40%  
77 10% 28%  
78 7% 18%  
79 5% 11%  
80 3% 6%  
81 1.5% 3%  
82 0.7% 1.2%  
83 0.3% 0.5%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.6% 99.7%  
58 1.4% 99.1%  
59 3% 98%  
60 5% 95%  
61 8% 90%  
62 11% 82%  
63 13% 71%  
64 14% 58% Median
65 13% 44%  
66 11% 31% Last Result
67 8% 20%  
68 5% 11%  
69 3% 6%  
70 2% 3%  
71 0.7% 1.2%  
72 0.3% 0.5%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.3% 99.9%  
52 0.9% 99.6%  
53 2% 98.7%  
54 4% 97%  
55 7% 93%  
56 9% 86%  
57 13% 77%  
58 15% 64% Median
59 13% 49%  
60 13% 36%  
61 9% 23%  
62 6% 14%  
63 4% 8%  
64 2% 4%  
65 1.0% 2%  
66 0.4% 0.7%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 0.7% 99.6%  
51 2% 99.0%  
52 3% 97%  
53 6% 94%  
54 9% 88%  
55 13% 79%  
56 15% 66% Median
57 14% 51%  
58 13% 37%  
59 9% 24%  
60 7% 15%  
61 4% 8%  
62 2% 4%  
63 1.1% 2%  
64 0.5% 0.7%  
65 0.2% 0.2%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100% Last Result
41 0.4% 99.8%  
42 1.3% 99.4%  
43 3% 98%  
44 5% 95%  
45 9% 90%  
46 12% 81%  
47 15% 69%  
48 15% 54% Median
49 14% 39%  
50 10% 25%  
51 7% 15%  
52 4% 8%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.9% 1.4%  
55 0.4% 0.5%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.5% 99.8%  
35 1.4% 99.4%  
36 3% 98%  
37 6% 95%  
38 11% 88%  
39 14% 77%  
40 16% 63% Median
41 15% 47%  
42 12% 31%  
43 9% 19%  
44 5% 10%  
45 3% 5%  
46 1.2% 2%  
47 0.5% 0.7%  
48 0.2% 0.2%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations