Opinion Poll by Unique Research for profil, 6–9 March 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 31.0% 29.0–33.2% 28.4–33.8% 27.9–34.3% 26.9–35.3%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 25.0% 23.1–27.0% 22.6–27.6% 22.1–28.1% 21.2–29.1%
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 22.0% 20.2–24.0% 19.7–24.5% 19.3–25.0% 18.4–26.0%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 10.0% 8.7–11.5% 8.4–11.9% 8.1–12.3% 7.5–13.0%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 9.0% 7.8–10.4% 7.5–10.8% 7.2–11.2% 6.7–11.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 58 54–62 53–64 52–65 50–67
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 47 43–51 42–52 41–53 40–55
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 41 38–45 37–46 36–47 34–49
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 19 16–21 15–22 15–23 14–24
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 17 14–19 14–20 13–21 12–22

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100% Last Result
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.3% 99.8%  
51 0.8% 99.5%  
52 2% 98.7%  
53 3% 97%  
54 5% 94%  
55 7% 90%  
56 9% 83%  
57 12% 73%  
58 12% 61% Median
59 12% 49%  
60 11% 37%  
61 9% 26%  
62 7% 17%  
63 4% 10%  
64 3% 6%  
65 2% 3%  
66 0.8% 1.3%  
67 0.4% 0.6%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 0.7% 99.6% Last Result
41 2% 98.9%  
42 3% 97%  
43 5% 94%  
44 8% 89%  
45 11% 81%  
46 13% 70%  
47 13% 57% Median
48 13% 44%  
49 10% 31%  
50 8% 21%  
51 5% 12%  
52 3% 7%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.9% 2%  
55 0.4% 0.7%  
56 0.2% 0.3%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.4% 99.8%  
35 1.1% 99.5%  
36 2% 98%  
37 4% 96%  
38 7% 92%  
39 9% 85%  
40 14% 75%  
41 13% 61% Median
42 14% 49%  
43 13% 35%  
44 8% 22%  
45 7% 14%  
46 4% 7%  
47 2% 4%  
48 1.1% 2%  
49 0.4% 0.7%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.3% 100%  
14 1.2% 99.7%  
15 4% 98.5%  
16 9% 95%  
17 15% 86%  
18 19% 71%  
19 19% 52% Median
20 15% 33%  
21 10% 18%  
22 5% 8%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.8% 1.2%  
25 0.3% 0.4%  
26 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.7% 99.9%  
13 3% 99.1%  
14 8% 96%  
15 15% 88% Last Result
16 19% 74%  
17 20% 54% Median
18 16% 34%  
19 10% 19%  
20 5% 8%  
21 2% 3%  
22 0.8% 1.1%  
23 0.2% 0.3%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 71 106 100% 101–110 100–111 98–112 96–114
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei 102 100 99.0% 95–104 94–105 93–107 91–109
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei 111 89 19% 84–93 83–94 82–95 79–97
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 81 83 0.4% 78–87 77–88 76–89 74–91
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 112 77 0% 73–81 71–82 70–83 68–86
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 66 0% 62–70 60–71 59–72 57–74
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 60 0% 56–64 55–65 54–66 52–68
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 58 0% 54–62 53–63 52–64 50–66
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 47 0% 43–51 42–52 41–53 40–55
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 41 0% 38–45 37–46 36–47 34–49

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100% Majority
93 0% 100%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.2% 99.9%  
96 0.3% 99.7%  
97 0.7% 99.3%  
98 1.2% 98.7%  
99 2% 97%  
100 3% 95%  
101 5% 92%  
102 7% 88%  
103 8% 81%  
104 10% 73%  
105 11% 63% Median
106 12% 52%  
107 11% 40%  
108 9% 29%  
109 7% 20%  
110 5% 12%  
111 3% 7%  
112 2% 4%  
113 1.0% 2%  
114 0.5% 0.9%  
115 0.2% 0.4%  
116 0.1% 0.1%  
117 0% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.3% 99.8%  
91 0.5% 99.5%  
92 1.0% 99.0% Majority
93 2% 98%  
94 3% 96%  
95 4% 94%  
96 6% 89%  
97 8% 84%  
98 10% 75%  
99 11% 66% Median
100 12% 55%  
101 11% 43%  
102 10% 32% Last Result
103 8% 23%  
104 6% 15%  
105 4% 9%  
106 2% 5%  
107 1.3% 3%  
108 0.7% 1.2%  
109 0.3% 0.5%  
110 0.1% 0.2%  
111 0.1% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.3% 99.8%  
80 0.6% 99.5%  
81 1.1% 98.8%  
82 2% 98%  
83 3% 96%  
84 5% 92%  
85 7% 88%  
86 9% 81%  
87 10% 72%  
88 12% 62% Median
89 11% 50%  
90 10% 39%  
91 9% 28%  
92 7% 19% Majority
93 5% 12%  
94 3% 7%  
95 2% 4%  
96 1.0% 2%  
97 0.5% 0.9%  
98 0.2% 0.4%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.3% 99.8%  
74 0.5% 99.5%  
75 1.1% 99.0%  
76 2% 98%  
77 3% 96%  
78 5% 93%  
79 7% 88%  
80 9% 81%  
81 10% 72% Last Result
82 11% 62%  
83 12% 51% Median
84 11% 39%  
85 9% 28%  
86 7% 19%  
87 5% 12%  
88 3% 7%  
89 2% 4%  
90 1.1% 2%  
91 0.6% 1.0%  
92 0.3% 0.4% Majority
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.4% 99.7%  
69 0.8% 99.3%  
70 2% 98%  
71 3% 97%  
72 4% 94%  
73 6% 90%  
74 8% 84%  
75 10% 76%  
76 11% 66%  
77 12% 54% Median
78 11% 42%  
79 10% 31%  
80 7% 22%  
81 6% 14%  
82 4% 9%  
83 2% 5%  
84 1.3% 2%  
85 0.7% 1.2%  
86 0.3% 0.5%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.3% 99.8%  
58 0.7% 99.5%  
59 1.5% 98.7%  
60 3% 97%  
61 4% 95%  
62 7% 90%  
63 9% 84%  
64 10% 75%  
65 12% 65%  
66 12% 53% Last Result, Median
67 12% 41%  
68 10% 30%  
69 7% 20%  
70 5% 13%  
71 3% 7%  
72 2% 4%  
73 1.0% 2%  
74 0.6% 1.0%  
75 0.2% 0.4%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.9%  
52 0.5% 99.7%  
53 1.1% 99.2%  
54 2% 98%  
55 4% 96%  
56 6% 92%  
57 8% 87%  
58 10% 79%  
59 12% 69%  
60 13% 57% Median
61 12% 44%  
62 10% 33%  
63 8% 22%  
64 6% 14%  
65 4% 8%  
66 2% 5%  
67 1.2% 2%  
68 0.6% 1.1%  
69 0.3% 0.4%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 0.4% 99.7%  
51 0.9% 99.3%  
52 2% 98%  
53 3% 97%  
54 5% 93%  
55 8% 88%  
56 10% 80%  
57 12% 70%  
58 13% 58% Median
59 12% 45%  
60 10% 33%  
61 8% 23%  
62 6% 15%  
63 4% 9%  
64 2% 5%  
65 1.3% 2%  
66 0.6% 1.1%  
67 0.3% 0.5%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 0.7% 99.6% Last Result
41 2% 98.9%  
42 3% 97%  
43 5% 94%  
44 8% 89%  
45 11% 81%  
46 13% 70%  
47 13% 57% Median
48 13% 44%  
49 10% 31%  
50 8% 21%  
51 5% 12%  
52 3% 7%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.9% 2%  
55 0.4% 0.7%  
56 0.2% 0.3%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.4% 99.8%  
35 1.1% 99.5%  
36 2% 98%  
37 4% 96%  
38 7% 92%  
39 9% 85%  
40 14% 75%  
41 13% 61% Median
42 14% 49%  
43 13% 35%  
44 8% 22%  
45 7% 14%  
46 4% 7%  
47 2% 4%  
48 1.1% 2%  
49 0.4% 0.7%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations