Opinion Poll by Market for Der Standard, 20–23 March 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 29.0% 27.0–31.1% 26.4–31.7% 26.0–32.3% 25.0–33.3%
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 23.0% 21.2–25.0% 20.7–25.6% 20.2–26.0% 19.4–27.0%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 21.0% 19.2–22.9% 18.7–23.5% 18.3–24.0% 17.5–24.9%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 11.0% 9.7–12.5% 9.3–13.0% 9.0–13.4% 8.4–14.1%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 10.0% 8.7–11.5% 8.4–11.9% 8.1–12.3% 7.5–13.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 53 49–57 48–58 48–59 46–61
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 42 39–46 38–47 37–48 35–50
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 38 35–42 34–43 33–44 32–46
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 20 17–23 17–24 16–24 15–26
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 18 16–21 15–22 14–22 13–24

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100% Last Result
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.3% 99.9%  
46 0.6% 99.6%  
47 1.4% 99.0%  
48 3% 98%  
49 5% 95%  
50 7% 90%  
51 10% 82%  
52 12% 72%  
53 13% 60% Median
54 13% 47%  
55 11% 34%  
56 9% 23%  
57 6% 14%  
58 4% 8%  
59 2% 4%  
60 1.2% 2%  
61 0.5% 0.9%  
62 0.2% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.4% 99.8%  
36 1.1% 99.4%  
37 2% 98%  
38 5% 96%  
39 8% 91%  
40 11% 84%  
41 13% 73%  
42 15% 59% Median
43 13% 45%  
44 11% 31%  
45 8% 20%  
46 6% 12%  
47 3% 6%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.8% 1.3%  
50 0.3% 0.5%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 0.7% 99.7%  
33 2% 99.0%  
34 4% 97%  
35 7% 94%  
36 10% 87%  
37 13% 77%  
38 15% 64% Median
39 14% 49%  
40 13% 35% Last Result
41 9% 22%  
42 6% 13%  
43 4% 7%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.9% 1.4%  
46 0.4% 0.6%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 0.8% 99.8% Last Result
16 3% 99.1%  
17 7% 96%  
18 13% 90%  
19 18% 77%  
20 19% 59% Median
21 16% 40%  
22 12% 24%  
23 7% 12%  
24 3% 5%  
25 1.3% 2%  
26 0.4% 0.6%  
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.4% 99.9%  
14 2% 99.5%  
15 6% 97%  
16 12% 92%  
17 18% 80%  
18 19% 62% Median
19 19% 43%  
20 12% 24%  
21 7% 12%  
22 3% 5%  
23 1.3% 2%  
24 0.4% 0.6%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei 102 95 88% 91–100 90–101 89–102 87–104
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 71 92 53% 88–96 86–97 85–98 83–100
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 112 80 0% 76–85 75–86 74–87 72–89
Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 111 81 0.1% 76–85 75–86 74–87 72–89
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 81 77 0% 73–81 72–82 70–83 68–85
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 62 0% 58–66 57–67 56–68 54–70
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 60 0% 56–64 55–66 54–67 53–69
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 57 0% 53–61 52–62 51–63 49–65
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 42 0% 39–46 38–47 37–48 35–50
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 38 0% 35–42 34–43 33–44 32–46

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0.1% 100%  
86 0.2% 99.9%  
87 0.5% 99.7%  
88 0.9% 99.2%  
89 2% 98%  
90 3% 97%  
91 5% 93%  
92 7% 88% Majority
93 9% 82%  
94 11% 73%  
95 13% 62% Median
96 12% 49%  
97 10% 37%  
98 9% 27%  
99 7% 18%  
100 5% 11%  
101 3% 6%  
102 2% 3% Last Result
103 1.0% 2%  
104 0.5% 0.8%  
105 0.2% 0.3%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.4% 99.8%  
84 0.8% 99.4%  
85 1.4% 98.6%  
86 3% 97%  
87 4% 95%  
88 6% 90%  
89 8% 84%  
90 10% 75%  
91 12% 65% Median
92 12% 53% Majority
93 11% 41%  
94 10% 30%  
95 7% 20%  
96 5% 13%  
97 3% 8%  
98 2% 4%  
99 1.2% 2%  
100 0.6% 1.0%  
101 0.2% 0.4%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.2% 99.9%  
72 0.4% 99.7%  
73 0.9% 99.3%  
74 2% 98%  
75 3% 97%  
76 5% 93%  
77 7% 88%  
78 9% 81%  
79 11% 72%  
80 12% 61% Median
81 12% 49%  
82 10% 37%  
83 9% 26%  
84 7% 18%  
85 5% 11%  
86 3% 6%  
87 2% 3%  
88 0.8% 2%  
89 0.4% 0.7%  
90 0.2% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.4% 99.8%  
73 0.8% 99.4%  
74 1.5% 98.7%  
75 3% 97%  
76 5% 95%  
77 7% 90%  
78 8% 83%  
79 11% 75%  
80 12% 64% Median
81 12% 52%  
82 11% 40%  
83 9% 29%  
84 7% 19%  
85 5% 12%  
86 3% 7%  
87 2% 4%  
88 1.1% 2%  
89 0.6% 0.9%  
90 0.2% 0.4%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0% 0.1% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.3% 99.8%  
69 0.8% 99.5%  
70 1.5% 98.7%  
71 2% 97%  
72 4% 95%  
73 7% 91%  
74 9% 84%  
75 10% 75%  
76 11% 65% Median
77 13% 54%  
78 13% 41%  
79 9% 28%  
80 6% 19%  
81 6% 13% Last Result
82 4% 7%  
83 2% 4%  
84 0.9% 2%  
85 0.5% 0.9%  
86 0.3% 0.4%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.4% 99.8%  
55 0.8% 99.4%  
56 2% 98.6%  
57 3% 97%  
58 5% 94%  
59 8% 88%  
60 10% 81%  
61 12% 71%  
62 13% 59% Median
63 12% 46%  
64 11% 34%  
65 9% 23%  
66 6% 15%  
67 4% 9%  
68 2% 5%  
69 1.2% 2%  
70 0.6% 1.1%  
71 0.3% 0.5%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.3% 99.8%  
53 0.7% 99.5%  
54 1.5% 98.8%  
55 3% 97%  
56 5% 94%  
57 7% 90%  
58 10% 82%  
59 12% 73%  
60 12% 61% Median
61 13% 49%  
62 11% 35%  
63 9% 24%  
64 6% 16%  
65 4% 9%  
66 3% 5%  
67 1.4% 3%  
68 0.7% 1.2%  
69 0.3% 0.5%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.5% 99.7%  
50 1.1% 99.2%  
51 2% 98%  
52 4% 96%  
53 6% 92%  
54 9% 85%  
55 11% 76%  
56 13% 65% Median
57 13% 52%  
58 12% 39%  
59 10% 27%  
60 7% 18%  
61 5% 11%  
62 3% 6%  
63 2% 3%  
64 0.8% 1.4%  
65 0.4% 0.6%  
66 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.4% 99.8%  
36 1.1% 99.4%  
37 2% 98%  
38 5% 96%  
39 8% 91%  
40 11% 84%  
41 13% 73%  
42 15% 59% Median
43 13% 45%  
44 11% 31%  
45 8% 20%  
46 6% 12%  
47 3% 6%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.8% 1.3%  
50 0.3% 0.5%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 0.7% 99.7%  
33 2% 99.0%  
34 4% 97%  
35 7% 94%  
36 10% 87%  
37 13% 77%  
38 15% 64% Median
39 14% 49%  
40 13% 35% Last Result
41 9% 22%  
42 6% 13%  
43 4% 7%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.9% 1.4%  
46 0.4% 0.6%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations