Opinion Poll by OGM for KURIER, 20–23 March 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 28.0% 26.3–29.9% 25.8–30.4% 25.4–30.8% 24.6–31.7%
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 23.0% 21.4–24.8% 21.0–25.3% 20.6–25.7% 19.8–26.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 23.0% 21.4–24.8% 21.0–25.3% 20.6–25.7% 19.8–26.5%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 10.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.6–11.7% 8.3–12.0% 7.8–12.7%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 10.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.6–11.7% 8.3–12.0% 7.8–12.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 51 48–55 47–56 47–57 45–58
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 42 39–45 38–46 38–47 36–49
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 42 39–45 38–46 38–47 36–49
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 19 16–20 16–20 15–22 15–23
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 18 16–20 15–21 15–22 14–23

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100% Last Result
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.2% 99.9%  
45 0.6% 99.7%  
46 2% 99.1%  
47 3% 98%  
48 6% 94%  
49 10% 88%  
50 13% 78%  
51 15% 65% Median
52 15% 50%  
53 13% 35%  
54 10% 22%  
55 6% 12%  
56 4% 6%  
57 2% 3%  
58 0.7% 1.1%  
59 0.3% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.2% 100%  
36 0.5% 99.8%  
37 2% 99.3%  
38 3% 98%  
39 7% 94%  
40 11% 88%  
41 14% 76%  
42 17% 62% Median
43 15% 45%  
44 12% 30%  
45 9% 18%  
46 5% 9%  
47 3% 4%  
48 1.1% 2%  
49 0.4% 0.6%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.2% 100%  
36 0.5% 99.8%  
37 2% 99.3%  
38 3% 98%  
39 7% 94%  
40 11% 87% Last Result
41 14% 76%  
42 17% 63% Median
43 15% 45%  
44 12% 30%  
45 9% 18%  
46 5% 9%  
47 3% 4%  
48 1.1% 2%  
49 0.4% 0.6%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0% 99.8%  
15 4% 99.8% Last Result
16 26% 96%  
17 1.3% 70%  
18 2% 69%  
19 55% 67% Median
20 7% 12%  
21 0% 5%  
22 3% 5%  
23 1.4% 1.4%  
24 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 1.0% 99.8%  
15 4% 98.8%  
16 11% 94%  
17 19% 84%  
18 22% 64% Median
19 20% 42%  
20 13% 22%  
21 6% 9%  
22 2% 3%  
23 0.7% 0.9%  
24 0.2% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 71 94 79% 90–97 89–98 88–99 86–101
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei 102 94 79% 90–97 89–98 88–99 86–101
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei 111 84 0.8% 81–88 80–89 79–90 77–92
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 81 79 0% 75–82 74–83 73–84 71–86
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 112 79 0% 75–82 74–83 73–84 71–86
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 60 0% 57–64 56–65 55–66 54–68
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 60 0% 57–64 56–65 55–66 54–68
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 61 0% 57–64 56–65 55–66 54–68
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 42 0% 39–45 38–46 38–47 36–49
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 42 0% 39–45 38–46 38–47 36–49

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9%  
86 0.4% 99.8%  
87 0.9% 99.4%  
88 2% 98.5%  
89 3% 97%  
90 6% 93%  
91 9% 87%  
92 11% 79% Majority
93 13% 67% Median
94 14% 54%  
95 13% 40%  
96 10% 27%  
97 7% 17%  
98 5% 10%  
99 2% 5%  
100 1.4% 2%  
101 0.6% 1.0%  
102 0.2% 0.4%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9%  
86 0.4% 99.8%  
87 0.9% 99.4%  
88 2% 98.5%  
89 3% 97%  
90 6% 93%  
91 9% 87%  
92 11% 79% Majority
93 13% 67% Median
94 14% 54%  
95 13% 40%  
96 10% 27%  
97 7% 17%  
98 5% 10%  
99 3% 5%  
100 1.3% 2%  
101 0.6% 1.0%  
102 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.2% 99.9%  
77 0.4% 99.7%  
78 1.2% 99.3%  
79 2% 98%  
80 4% 96%  
81 7% 92%  
82 9% 85%  
83 13% 76%  
84 14% 64% Median
85 13% 50%  
86 13% 37%  
87 9% 24%  
88 7% 15%  
89 4% 8%  
90 2% 4%  
91 1.1% 2%  
92 0.5% 0.8% Majority
93 0.2% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.4% 99.8%  
72 0.9% 99.4%  
73 2% 98.5%  
74 3% 97%  
75 6% 93%  
76 9% 87%  
77 12% 78%  
78 14% 66%  
79 14% 52% Median
80 13% 38%  
81 10% 26% Last Result
82 7% 16%  
83 4% 9%  
84 2% 5%  
85 1.2% 2%  
86 0.6% 0.9%  
87 0.2% 0.4%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.4% 99.8%  
72 0.9% 99.4%  
73 2% 98.5%  
74 3% 97%  
75 6% 93%  
76 9% 87%  
77 12% 78%  
78 14% 66%  
79 14% 52% Median
80 12% 38%  
81 10% 26%  
82 7% 16%  
83 4% 9%  
84 3% 5%  
85 1.3% 2%  
86 0.6% 0.9%  
87 0.2% 0.4%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.3% 99.9%  
54 0.9% 99.5%  
55 2% 98.6%  
56 4% 97%  
57 6% 93%  
58 10% 86%  
59 13% 76%  
60 14% 63% Median
61 14% 49%  
62 12% 35%  
63 9% 22%  
64 6% 13%  
65 4% 7%  
66 2% 3% Last Result
67 0.9% 1.5%  
68 0.4% 0.6%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.3% 99.9%  
54 0.9% 99.5%  
55 2% 98.7%  
56 4% 97%  
57 7% 93%  
58 10% 86%  
59 13% 76%  
60 15% 63% Median
61 13% 48%  
62 12% 35%  
63 9% 23%  
64 6% 13%  
65 4% 7%  
66 2% 3%  
67 0.9% 1.5%  
68 0.4% 0.6%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.3% 99.9%  
54 0.9% 99.5%  
55 2% 98.6%  
56 4% 97%  
57 6% 93%  
58 10% 86%  
59 12% 77%  
60 14% 64%  
61 15% 50% Median
62 12% 35%  
63 9% 23%  
64 6% 14%  
65 4% 7%  
66 2% 3%  
67 0.9% 1.4%  
68 0.3% 0.5%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.2% 100%  
36 0.5% 99.8%  
37 2% 99.3%  
38 3% 98%  
39 7% 94%  
40 11% 87% Last Result
41 14% 76%  
42 17% 63% Median
43 15% 45%  
44 12% 30%  
45 9% 18%  
46 5% 9%  
47 3% 4%  
48 1.1% 2%  
49 0.4% 0.6%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.2% 100%  
36 0.5% 99.8%  
37 2% 99.3%  
38 3% 98%  
39 7% 94%  
40 11% 88%  
41 14% 76%  
42 17% 62% Median
43 15% 45%  
44 12% 30%  
45 9% 18%  
46 5% 9%  
47 3% 4%  
48 1.1% 2%  
49 0.4% 0.6%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations