Opinion Poll by Market for ÖSTERREICH, 27–29 March 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 16.2% 29.0% 27.2–30.9% 26.7–31.4% 26.3–31.9% 25.4–32.8%
Österreichische Volkspartei 37.5% 21.0% 19.4–22.7% 19.0–23.2% 18.6–23.6% 17.8–24.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 21.2% 21.0% 19.4–22.7% 19.0–23.2% 18.6–23.6% 17.8–24.5%
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 8.1% 13.0% 11.7–14.5% 11.4–14.9% 11.1–15.2% 10.5–16.0%
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 13.9% 10.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.6–11.7% 8.3–12.0% 7.8–12.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 31 53 50–57 49–58 48–59 47–60
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 39 35–42 35–42 34–43 33–45
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 38 35–42 35–43 34–43 33–45
NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 15 24 21–26 21–27 20–28 19–29
Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 26 18 16–20 15–21 15–22 14–23

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100% Last Result
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.3% 99.9%  
47 0.9% 99.6%  
48 2% 98.7%  
49 4% 97%  
50 7% 92%  
51 11% 85%  
52 13% 75%  
53 15% 62% Median
54 14% 46%  
55 12% 32%  
56 9% 20%  
57 6% 11%  
58 3% 6%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.7% 1.1%  
61 0.3% 0.4%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Österreichische Volkspartei page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.4% 99.9%  
33 1.1% 99.5%  
34 3% 98%  
35 6% 96%  
36 9% 90%  
37 14% 81%  
38 16% 67%  
39 16% 50% Median
40 14% 34%  
41 10% 20%  
42 6% 10%  
43 3% 5%  
44 1.3% 2%  
45 0.5% 0.7%  
46 0.2% 0.2%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.4% 99.9%  
33 1.1% 99.5%  
34 3% 98%  
35 6% 96%  
36 10% 90%  
37 14% 79%  
38 16% 65% Median
39 16% 50%  
40 14% 33% Last Result
41 9% 20%  
42 6% 11%  
43 3% 5%  
44 1.4% 2%  
45 0.5% 0.7%  
46 0.2% 0.2%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100% Last Result
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.2% 100%  
19 1.0% 99.8%  
20 3% 98.7%  
21 8% 95%  
22 15% 87%  
23 19% 73%  
24 20% 54% Median
25 16% 34%  
26 10% 18%  
27 5% 8%  
28 2% 3%  
29 0.7% 1.0%  
30 0.2% 0.3%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 1.2% 99.8%  
15 5% 98.6%  
16 11% 94%  
17 19% 83%  
18 22% 64% Median
19 20% 42%  
20 13% 22%  
21 6% 9%  
22 2% 3%  
23 0.7% 1.0%  
24 0.2% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 71 92 54% 88–96 87–97 86–98 84–99
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei 102 92 55% 88–96 87–97 86–98 84–99
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 81 80 0% 77–84 76–85 75–86 73–88
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 112 80 0% 77–84 76–85 75–86 73–88
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei 111 77 0% 73–81 72–82 71–83 69–85
Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum 86 62 0% 59–66 58–67 57–68 55–70
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 66 57 0% 53–60 52–61 51–62 50–64
Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative 97 57 0% 53–60 52–61 51–62 50–64
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs 40 38 0% 35–42 35–43 34–43 33–45
Österreichische Volkspartei 71 39 0% 35–42 35–42 34–43 33–45

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0.2% 99.9%  
84 0.4% 99.8%  
85 1.0% 99.4%  
86 2% 98%  
87 4% 96%  
88 6% 93%  
89 8% 87%  
90 11% 78%  
91 13% 67% Median
92 13% 54% Majority
93 13% 41%  
94 10% 28%  
95 7% 18%  
96 5% 10%  
97 3% 5%  
98 2% 3%  
99 0.7% 1.2%  
100 0.3% 0.5%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0.2% 99.9%  
84 0.4% 99.8%  
85 0.9% 99.4%  
86 2% 98%  
87 3% 96%  
88 6% 93%  
89 9% 87%  
90 11% 79%  
91 13% 67%  
92 13% 55% Median, Majority
93 13% 41%  
94 11% 29%  
95 8% 18%  
96 5% 10%  
97 3% 6%  
98 2% 3%  
99 0.7% 1.2%  
100 0.3% 0.5%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0% 0.1% Last Result
103 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.2% 99.9%  
73 0.6% 99.7%  
74 1.2% 99.1%  
75 3% 98%  
76 4% 95%  
77 7% 91%  
78 10% 84%  
79 13% 74%  
80 13% 61% Median
81 13% 48% Last Result
82 11% 35%  
83 10% 24%  
84 6% 14%  
85 4% 8%  
86 2% 4%  
87 1.1% 2%  
88 0.5% 0.8%  
89 0.2% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.2% 99.9%  
73 0.6% 99.7%  
74 1.2% 99.1%  
75 2% 98%  
76 5% 96%  
77 6% 91%  
78 10% 85%  
79 12% 75%  
80 13% 62%  
81 14% 49% Median
82 12% 35%  
83 9% 24%  
84 7% 15%  
85 4% 8%  
86 2% 4%  
87 1.1% 2%  
88 0.5% 0.8%  
89 0.2% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Österreichische Volkspartei

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0% 99.9%  
69 0.4% 99.9%  
70 0.5% 99.5%  
71 2% 99.0%  
72 3% 97%  
73 5% 94%  
74 9% 89%  
75 9% 80%  
76 16% 71%  
77 9% 55% Median
78 19% 46%  
79 6% 28%  
80 12% 22%  
81 3% 10%  
82 4% 7%  
83 1.4% 3%  
84 0.9% 1.4%  
85 0.3% 0.5%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0% Last Result

Österreichische Volkspartei – NEOS–Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 0.5% 99.8%  
56 1.1% 99.3%  
57 2% 98%  
58 5% 96%  
59 7% 91%  
60 10% 84%  
61 13% 74%  
62 14% 61%  
63 14% 47% Median
64 12% 33%  
65 8% 21%  
66 6% 12%  
67 3% 6%  
68 2% 3%  
69 0.8% 1.3%  
70 0.3% 0.5%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 0.7% 99.7%  
51 2% 99.0%  
52 3% 97%  
53 6% 94%  
54 9% 88%  
55 13% 79%  
56 14% 66% Median
57 15% 52%  
58 13% 38%  
59 10% 25%  
60 7% 15%  
61 4% 8%  
62 2% 4%  
63 1.1% 2%  
64 0.4% 0.7%  
65 0.2% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
67 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei – Die Grünen–Die Grüne Alternative

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 0.7% 99.7%  
51 2% 99.0%  
52 3% 97%  
53 5% 94%  
54 9% 88%  
55 13% 80%  
56 15% 67%  
57 13% 52% Median
58 13% 39%  
59 11% 26%  
60 7% 15%  
61 4% 8%  
62 2% 4%  
63 1.1% 2%  
64 0.4% 0.7%  
65 0.2% 0.2%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Majority
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.4% 99.9%  
33 1.1% 99.5%  
34 3% 98%  
35 6% 96%  
36 10% 90%  
37 14% 79%  
38 16% 65% Median
39 16% 50%  
40 14% 33% Last Result
41 9% 20%  
42 6% 11%  
43 3% 5%  
44 1.4% 2%  
45 0.5% 0.7%  
46 0.2% 0.2%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Österreichische Volkspartei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.4% 99.9%  
33 1.1% 99.5%  
34 3% 98%  
35 6% 96%  
36 9% 90%  
37 14% 81%  
38 16% 67%  
39 16% 50% Median
40 14% 34%  
41 10% 20%  
42 6% 10%  
43 3% 5%  
44 1.3% 2%  
45 0.5% 0.7%  
46 0.2% 0.2%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations